Random Thoughts about the Wizarding World

[Ceridwen]

No: HPFGUIDX 139933

amiabledorsai:
> ...trying to work out the size of the Wizarding community...
> 
> Suppose that about 2/3 to 3/4 of the witches and wizards of that age
> cohort were killed, Longbottomed, sent to Azkaban, or otherwise
> rendered unable to reproduce.  Harry's generation--the kids several
> years older and younger than Harry--would therefore be unusually 
small.
> *(snip)*
> Hogwarts then, would be serving an enrollment much smaller than it's
> "normal" 1000 students.  There would be a population of much older
> Magicals rather larger--12,000 to 18,000 perhaps--than the simple
> multiplication of Hogwarts' current enrollment would indicate.  
>Enough to support 13 Quidditch teams on a semi-pro basis, enough to 
>generate the commerce necessary to support the shops in Diagon Alley 
>and Hogsmeade, enough so that the Ministry of Magic doesn't look 
>quite so bloated....
> *(snip)*
> It also would serve to explain the oddly high proportion of
> half-bloods and Muggleborns in Harry's year.  *(snip)*

Ceridwen:
The number of Witches and Wizards in the grandparental generation 
*might* hinge on Grindelwald and what sort of threat he posed.  That 
would be the generation that was of an age to go off to GrindelWar.  
If he was as pants-wettingly terrifying as Voldemort, then that 
generation would be stunted as well, leaving fewer than the 1,000 
student capacity of Hogwarts for James and Lily's generation, too.  
Leading, of course, to around 300 in Harry's generation.

I don't think Grindelwald was as bad as Voldemort, since we just 
don't hear about him other than on Dumbledore's Chocolate Frogs 
card.  He might have succumbed too early, or have had a completely 
different agenda not involving war.

The WW may also be experiencing a natural decline in its numbers 
because of inbreeding among Purebloods, as has been suggested in 
other areas, like the WIKTT marriage challenge.  This would account 
for the many Half-Bloods and Muggle-borns in Harry's years, and even 
in James's years.  We do know that Lily was Muggle-born, and Snape 
was Half-Blood.  How many others?

And, for some reason, there are a lot of families with one child.  I 
wonder if the Patil twins would have been a single child if the 
pregnancy would not have resulted in a multiple birth.  The Weasleys 
seem out of the norm in this regard.  Did the WW once have a time 
when there were larger families, as there was in the Muggle/our 
world?  The shift to smaller families could explain it.

Still, I agree that, for whatever reason, and Voldy is a *very* good 
reason for a depletion of Witches and Wizards of childbearing years, 
Hogwarts is not operating at full capacity.  We don't know about the 
size of the dorm rooms, and extra beds would have been removed.  But 
we do know that the third floor is currently not used.

Also, *if* Hogwarts once operated as a facility of further education, 
say of apprentices, that might explain the empty third floor and the 
original capacity as well, since it doesn't seem to do that any more 
(if it ever did).

But in the end, it could just be JKR being none too good at math.  I 
doubt if she knew she would get so much attention and that her books 
would be so popular, esp. with adults.  She threw numbers out, and we 
decided to go deeper.  Still, the numbers are out there now, and we 
have them to play with.

Ceridwen.