Spinner's End--further evidence for DDsMan!Snape??

[nkafkafi]

No: HPFGUIDX 140163

 
> Hickengruendler:
>  
> But in this case, Snape failed and Voldemort should be angry with 
> him. Because no matter if this was his plan or not, Snape alarmed 
the 
> Order right in time to save Harry. It was not too late.  
> 
> Of course it's possible that Snape didn't expect the kids to fight 
> that well. Maybe he just underestimated them and thought the other 
> DE's had already finished them off. But even if, than it's still 
> likely that Voldemort would have blamed Snape for the failing off 
the 
> mission. And he didn't. It is said in Canon, that he blamed Lucius 
> and wanted revenge, even Bella fell out of his grace, but Snape 
still 
> seemed to be pretty close to the Big V. And that's not in character 
> for Voldemort if Snape had butchered his job like that.  
> 

Neri:
I was just running possible scenarios there. I didn't say it happened 
that way or the other. It is also entirely possible that Snape was 
personally worried about his cover, and so he independently warned 
the Order after a delay he judged to be long enough, and never told 
Voldy about it. I'd say there are too many unknowns and too many 
optional scenarios to conclude that it was ESE!Snape, OFH!Snape or 
merely Loyal-But-Irresponsible!Snape. But in any case we still have a 
5 hrs hole to explain.

Now, If *I* were the evil overlord here, I'd be orchestrating such a 
complex and critical operation personally from a control room, using 
immediate means of communication, such as two-way mirrors or maybe a 
Dark Mark code (one burn for plan A, two burns for plan B and the 
like). And then Lucius would of course send a message to the control 
room: "Potter picked it! We got him now!" and then I'd send a message 
to Snape: "Lucius reports he got it! Give him 30 minutes to secure 
everything and clear the place, then warn the Order. We'll send an 
anonymous message to the aurors so they'll catch Dumbledore breaking 
into a top-secret Ministry department together with half the Order 
and a convicted criminal Black. Muhahaha!" Then of course I wouldn't 
be able to blame Snape when I personally gave him the command, so it 
would all fall on Lucius' and Bella's heads.

No way to know that it really happened that way, of course. It just 
makes sense to me, but that's probably the bias of my meager military 
background. Although the fact that Voldy appeared in the MoM shortly 
after everything went pear shape from his PoV suggests he was somehow 
keeping a close eye on the operation. 


> Hickengruendler:
> Also, I find it highly problematic to assume that there was a 
delay, 
> simply by using things like sunrise and sunset. JKR does not always 
> pay attention to such details. She has September 1st on a monday 
two 
> years in a row, and during their Astronomy OWLs the kids are 
studying 
> a star that can't even be seen during that time of the year. 
> Inconsistencies regarding the time of the sunset are a much smaller 
> Flint. And Bellatrix said in the chapter "Spinner's End", that the 
> sextet were joined by the Order "in no time". That does not seem to 
> suggest a major delay. Why didn't Snape answer: "No, they did not. 
I 
> waited quite a long time to inform the Order, just like I told 
> Voldemort I would," if that really were the case?
> 

Neri:
Ah yes, the Flint defense. For some reason it's never used against 
Snape, only for him. How do you know JKR didn't actually plan to have 
an 8 hrs hole, but she had a Flint and that's why we only got a 5 hrs 
hole? Does Snape has a magical effect on the direction of JKR's 
mistakes? 

JKR is indeed slightly flinty in issues that aren't critical for the 
plot (like the Monday/ September 1st case), and rarely even in 
critical cases when it's an either/or thing (the wands order in GoF). 
However, unlike Voldy JKR had already proven her ability to 
successfully orchestrate complex operations that involve several 
characters and places in parallel, and even throw in a time travel 
gambit without confusing any of the times. The OotP climax is 
critical for the plot. The questions of what were the Order doing 
during this time and who's responsible for Sirius' death were very 
important in the narrative. I'd be *very* surprised if JKR doesn't 
have in her notebooks a table of what each of the characters was 
doing and when. If she had such a table it would be impossible not to 
notice a 5 hrs hole, when the whole climax only takes about 12 hrs 
overall (from the History of Magic exam until the following morning). 
Her mentions of the sun don't look accidental either. Both the sunset 
and the dawn are described more than once. The time of Harry and 
Hermione going to the Forest with Umbridge is described both as well-
before-sunset (the sun high above the trees) and as dinner time (the 
sounds of dinner from the great hall). The only way to significantly 
shorten the delay is to assume that lunch was very late (about 10 
PM), sunset at 11 PM and first light at 1 AM. The hole would then be 
only about 2 hrs wide, but I can't believe JKR is *that* dumb about 
times.

Neri