Draco vs. Dumbledore or What was V thinking?!? (was: Re: Spinner's End...)

[Mike]

No: HPFGUIDX 157355

--- In HPforGrownups at yahoogroups.com, "horridporrid03" wrote:
> Betsy Hp:
> Ah, but remember, Draco waited to call in the Death Eaters until 
> *after* Dumbledore had left the building. <snip>
> 
> Oh I totally agree that we saw the Brute Force Squad of the Death 
> Eaters.  Voldemort sent in his beserkers, not because he *wanted*  
> to get rid of them, but because they would cause the most damage  
> and they were, in the end, expendable.
> 
> Remember, Draco is being set up to fail here.  This is a plan born 
> of rage, as per Snape, and Voldemort's main goal is to punish 
> Lucius.  A dead Draco does that much better than a live Draco 
> covered in Death Eater glory.  So Voldemort sends through his 
> bloodiest, most violent, loves kids in *all* the wrong ways, Death 
> Eaters not to back Draco up, but to cause untold havoc.
> 
> Sure, the teachers of Hogwarts are no easy pickings, but they  
> should have been taken completely by surprise.  The Death Eaters  
> shouldhave been able to spread through the school, not get   
> bunched up in one section of hallway. <snip>
> 
> Sure in the end, Dumbledore and the teachers would have prevailed, 
> but at what cost?  Would any kind of body-count be acceptable to  
> the WW?  Talk about a psychological coup.

Mike:
OK, I get it. This was a terrorist action. From the beginning, Draco 
(or an accomplice) was to signal when DD was out and the connection 
between cabinets was ready. Then, after raising a little hell, 
someone sends up the Dark Mark to lure DD back, whereupon Draco 
heads off to meet his doom. Is that right, Betsy?

But, LV appears to be running low on DEs and to sacrafice 6-8 of 
them for this seems like a poor trade-off. More importantly, 
including Fenrir in the raid has the very real drawback of scaring 
the bejesus out of even the Slytherins (presuming the attack went 
off as planned), which would quite probably seriously damage future 
recruitment efforts. Trade a tactical win for a strategic blunder? 
You don't think he recruits followers to sacrafice them so easily, 
do you?

> Betsy Hp:
> And Draco would have been distracting Dumbledore.  With the added 
> bonus of possibly forcing Dumbledore to kill a child (something I 
> think Voldemort would realize Dumbledore would be loath to do).

Mike:
LV *knows* that DD wouldn't kill Draco, wouldn't even come close to 
needing to. Much more likely that Draco would be captured, which I 
suppose is still a disgrace to the Malfoy name, right?
 
> 
> Betsy Hp:
> Snape wasn't part of the plan because he wasn't supposed to take 
> part in it.  Snape (as Ceridwen points out in a part I snipped) is 
> not a beserker.  He's not cannon fodder.  So Voldemort would  
> expect him to stay out of the way.  Snape will know that Draco   
> has a mission to kill Dumbledore (Snape was probably there, based 
> on some of his comments, during the rage fest that led to this 
> plan) but he won't know the nitty-gritty because he doesn't need 
> to know the details. 
>
> Once the poop hit the fan Snape would realize what was going on  
> and act accordingly (which was probably to lay low, *maybe* take  
> out Dumbledore if the chance arose.) <break, cont. below>

Mike:
OK, I follow you up to here. Not sure Snape was in on the rage-fest 
based on what we heard in Spinner's End, but not important here.

> Betsy Hp continued:
> But really, the mad-dog crazies attack Hogwarts was Bellatrix's 
> show. This was her chance to show Voldemort that she could get 
> it done. (Sly Snape manages to steal her thunder.  Wonder how
> that's going to go down?) <break, cont. below> 

Mike:
OK, lost me here. Are you saying it was Bella's plan and Snape's 
intervention saved the day for Bella's plan that would have failed 
otherwise? Cause, Bella wasn't in the attack party.

> Betsy Hp continued:
> So Snape knew enough to keep him out of trouble and to keep him
> from completely screwing up the plan.  But he didn't know the 
> exact details because he didn't need to know.

Mike:
I don't understand these two sentences at all. Which "him" are you 
referring to? I didn't snip anything here, I only put in line breaks 
at the places where you lost me.
 
I did snip the rest because I both followed and agreed with your 
assessment. (I didn't mind the *ruthless* snipping <g> But then 
again I wrote lots of what got snipped, so I knew their original 
layout. You may still have to stand trial for indescent composure, 
<a little Groucho grin>)