Draco vs. Dumbledore or What was V thinking?!? (was: Re: Spinner's End...)

[horridporrid03]

No: HPFGUIDX 157379

> >>Mike:
> OK, I get it. This was a terrorist action. From the beginning,     
> Draco (or an accomplice) was to signal when DD was out and the     
> connection between cabinets was ready. Then, after raising a      
> little hell, someone sends up the Dark Mark to lure DD back,      
> whereupon Draco heads off to meet his doom. Is that right, Betsy?

Betsy Hp:
Yup. <g>

> >>Mike:
> But, LV appears to be running low on DEs and to sacrafice 6-8 of 
> them for this seems like a poor trade-off.

Betsy Hp:
Why would Voldemort assume they wouldn't flee for the hills the 
moment Dumbledore shows up?  Also, why do we think Voldemort is 
running low on Death Eaters?  Is there canon for that?

> >>Mike:
> More importantly, including Fenrir in the raid has the very real   
> drawback of scaring the bejesus out of even the Slytherins        
> (presuming the attack went off as planned), which would quite      
> probably seriously damage future recruitment efforts.

Betsy Hp:
Voldemort will kill off the very best of the purebloods if he wants 
to.  Why would he give two hoots if a few Slytherins are scared or 
scarred or killed?  (It's not like Slytherins are natural Death 
Eaters after all. <eg>)

> >>Magpie:
> Voldemort's happy to rule based on fear or Imperius if need be. I
> don't think he'd care about scaring the Slytherins. Being able to
> induce fear means he's powerful, which is attractive to some.

Betsy Hp:
Exactly.  Voldemort is who he is, and those who agree with him, or 
enjoy the chaos he sows will join him.  Voldemort is not trolling 
for recruits that I've seen.

> >>Mike:
> Trade a tactical win for a strategic blunder? You don't think he   
> recruits followers to sacrafice them so easily, do you?

Betsy Hp:
I sure do.  Voldemort may have a few (a *few*) followers he deems 
necessary enough to not out and out kill.  Lucius may well be one of 
them.  (Hence the kill the son but keep the father, thinking.)  But 
that's the whole point of Voldemort.  He'll kill you in a second if 
he sees the slightest gain for himself in it.  Years of loyal 
service not withstanding.  (And I honestly don't see the strategic 
blunder here.  Not from Voldemort's point of view.)

> >>Mike:
> LV *knows* that DD wouldn't kill Draco, wouldn't even come close   
> to needing to.

> >>Magpie:
> LV doesn't know DD wouldn't kill Draco. DD even says (perhaps as   
> part of that "you can't kill what's already dead" line that's not 
> in all editions) that LV would expect DD's side to kill Draco in   
> response to this. It's the classic weakness of evil, that it can't 
> imagine good's deicisions, like the decision to offer mercy to     
> someone trying to kill you.

Betsy Hp:
Exactly. <g>

> >>Mike:
> Much more likely that Draco would be captured, which I suppose is 
> still a disgrace to the Malfoy name, right?

Betsy Hp:
Voldemort isn't interested in the Malfoy name.  He wants Lucius to 
bleed.  Actually, there's a certain logic in what Voldemort is 
doing.  Lucius caused a piece of Voldemort (the diary!horcrux) to 
die, so Voldemort will cause a piece of Lucius (Draco) to die.

> >>Betsy Hp:
> > <snip>
> > But really, the mad-dog crazies attack Hogwarts was Bellatrix's 
> > show. This was her chance to show Voldemort that she could get 
> > it done. (Sly Snape manages to steal her thunder.  Wonder how
> > that's going to go down?) 

> >>Mike:
> OK, lost me here. Are you saying it was Bella's plan and Snape's 
> intervention saved the day for Bella's plan that would have failed 
> otherwise? Cause, Bella wasn't in the attack party.

Betsy Hp:
Sorry!  I assumed access to my mind <bg>.  I see Bellatrix as pretty 
much running Draco.  I think Voldemort assigned her the job of 
training Draco up (Occlumency, an Unforgivable or two) and being 
Draco's contact.  (I seriously doubt Voldemort wanted to waste his 
time on Draco and his doomed mission.)  I think Bellatrix hoped to 
have Draco actually succeed, whereupon Bellatrix would take instant 
credit.

So I think it was Bellatrix who arranged for the Death Eaters to go 
through the cabinet (with either Voldemort's approval or with 
Voldemort saying, "send so and so").  She didn't have to actually 
*be* there, but she does get the credit of it being her plan.  
(Honestly, I doubt she'd have let Draco get any credit for the 
cabinet in the end.)

Even if Draco were killed, Bellatrix would still get some glory if 
the Death Eaters actually caused havoc or if Dumbledore was wounded 
or even killed himself in the chaos.

But when Snape swooped in, took the lead, killed Dumbledore, etc., 
he basically stole the air (I suspect) from Bellatrix.  Instead of 
being the mastermind behind the ravaging of Hogwarts, she's the 
teacher of the kid who failed completely.  And in fact, she's the 
chick with plan that was totally failing until Snape came along and 
saved the day.  (And you just *know* that's how Snape is going to 
spin it.)

> >>Betsy Hp:
> > So Snape knew enough to keep him out of trouble and to keep him
> > from completely screwing up the plan.  But he didn't know the 
> > exact details because he didn't need to know.

> >>Mike:
> I don't understand these two sentences at all. Which "him" are you 
> referring to? I didn't snip anything here, I only put in line     
> breaks at the places where you lost me.

Betsy Hp:
Oops.  "Huh?" is never the desired reaction. <g>  Let me try again.  
Basically I think Snape *did* know (and most likely from the 
beginning) that Voldemort was sending Draco in to kill Dumbledore.  
But I think that's *all* Snape knew.  How Draco was going to do it, 
who all was helping Draco, none of the was Snape's concern (per 
Voldemort).

I think Voldemort shared the *existence* of the plan because Snape 
is smart and would most likely have figured out that something was 
up.  And an uninformed Snape might have thrown things off if he'd 
felt the need to investigate.  Especially since Snape is Draco's 
head of house and a friend of the family to boot.  

However, Snape did not get to hear the details because Snape was not 
supposed to *take part* in the plan.  Snape was merely to keep out 
of the way and was told enough to allow him (Snape) to do so.

(Honestly, I think this was more because Voldemort didn't care about 
the details, himself.  I don't think this was a big deal for 
Voldemort, more of a side show really.  Let Bellatrix take care of 
any pesky details and point Draco in the right direction.  But this 
wasn't something to either risk or bother Snape with.  Snape had 
bigger fish to fry.  "What the heck is Dumbledore up to? etc.") 

> >>Mike:
> (I didn't mind the *ruthless* snipping <g> But then again I wrote 
> lots of what got snipped, so I knew their original layout. You may 
> still have to stand trial for indescent composure, <a little       
> Groucho grin>)

Betsy Hp:
Ha!  I hand you a cigar, sir.  And wish I had a sharper wit <g>.

Betsy Hp