What Came First: Task or Cabinet? - The Plan v1 & v2

[Steve]

No: HPFGUIDX 157617

--- In HPforGrownups at yahoogroups.com, "horridporrid03"
<horridporrid03 at ...> wrote:
>
> > >>bboyminn: 
> > > ... let us not forget that Draco went to Voldemort 
> > > with the Vanishing Cabinet Plan. 
> 
> > >>Magpie:
> > > No, he DID NOT. ...
> 
> > >>bboyminn:
> > > Sorry but your wrong, or at least as wrong as I am. 
> > > What is the very first thing that occurs 
> > > chronologically... Anwer: Draco figures out ... 
> > > Vanishing Cabinets...
> 
> > >>Betsy Hp:
> > > ... Draco tells Dumbledore that he got the idea about 
> > > the Cabinet after hearing Montague's story. That can't 
> > > have occured at the end of the school year because 
> > > Montague was too sick ....  
> > > ...
> 
> > >>bboyminn:
> > Sorry, not so, Montegue returns to the school around 
> > Easter, and is at the school for a minimum of two full 
> > month recoverings.
> > <snip>
> 
> Betsy Hp:
> Montague returns just before Easter, yes. ... On a 
> Tuesday morning, after Easter break ..., he's described 
> as "confused and disorientated" and his parents come to 
> visit. [OotP p.678] Which we know is a pretty bad sign 
> based on other times parents get called in....
> 
> At the time of Harry's vision of Sirius in jeopardy 
> Montague is being spoon fed by Madam Pomfrey (probably 
> a potion, but still, spoon fed?). [ibid p.730]
> 

bboyminn:

Not quite, Madame Pomfrey is 'spooning some bright blue 
liquid into Montague's open mouth'. That is quite different 
than the implication that Md. Pomfrey was 'spoon feeding' 
him. And notice that Montague's mouth is open, he is not 
too incoherent to understand what is happening. I don't 
think this reads anything into his condition. Other than 
the fact that he is still in the hospital. Note in the 
section you cite below, Hermione is perfectly coherent
and she is taking 10 potions a day. 

> Betsy Hp:
> And Montague is either taken home early or he's so out 
> of it he doesn't even garner comment when everyone's 
> visiting Ron and Hermione in the hospital wing. 
> [ibid pp.846-850]  Which .., suggests .. his recovery 
> is .. slow....
> 

bboyminn:

Or it suggests that he is recovered and back in the dorms 
telling his story.

I agree, what is talked about in the hospital scene is a 
little sensitive, and I don't think they would have been 
so open with Montague there. So, I conclude he is not 
there, that he is back in Slytherin House. 

> Betsy Hp:
> ...
> 
> You also have to sell the idea that Draco, member of the 
> IS, enjoying Dumbledore being kicked out of Hogwarts, is 
> for some reason thinking about ways for Voldemort to come 
> into Hogwarts.  Why on earth would Draco be thinking about 
> such things?  ...
> 

bboyminn:

Look at the scene where Draco and Harry meet in the Entrance 
Hall near the very end of the book (soon joined by Snape
and McGonagall). Draco as good as swear vengence for Harry 
'landing his father in jail'. So Draco is most certainly
thinking about 'such things'.

> 
> > >>bboymin:
> > I don't deny Voldemort's anger with Lucius, but it 
> > wasn't  about the diary, it was about the muck-up at 
> > the Ministry.
> > <snip>
> 
> Betsy Hp:
> Why do you think that?  Where's the canon?
> 

bboyminn:

"Spinner's End"; read it again. Narcissa /suspects/ the 
Ministry Muck-up is the motivtion. Snape agrees that 
Voldemort is angry, but never confirms his motivations.

The Dairy is never mention. And when Dumbledore mentions
it, he doesn't make a big deal out of it. So, the emphasis
on the Dairy is mostly fan speculation. 

Magpie asserted with absolute indisputable authority that
the Dairy was that the center of it all, and flat out 
told me I was wrong. I pointed out I was no more wrong
than she was. Now it seems the very canon she relied on 
is denying the heart of her /theory/.

--- HBP HB, Am Ed, Pg 34 ---
...said Snape flatly. "I cannot pretend that the Dark 
Lord is not angry with Lucius. Lucius was supposed to be 
in charge. He got himself captured, along with how many 
others, and failed to retrieve the prophecy into the 
bargain. Yes, the Dark Lord is angry, Narcissa, very 
angry indeed." 

"Then I am right, he has chosen Draco in revenge!" choked 
Narcissa. "He does not mean him to succeed, he wants him 
to be killed trying!" 
- - - end quote - - - 

Nothing about the Diary. I don't deny the Diary played
some part, but the bulk of Voldemort's anger seems to 
be related to Lucuis screwing up the Ministry mission.

Also note that Narcissa also says (pg.33)-

"But he won't succeed!" sobbed Narcissa "How can he, when 
the Dark Lord himself--?"

Followed by -
"I only meant...that nobody has yet suceeded..."

Narcissa can imagine how anyone could expect Draco to kill 
someone that not even the Dark Lord himself could kill.

While you may not consider my view canon, you shouldn't be 
able to consider Magpie's view as anything other than an
interpretation of Canon.

I don't deny Voldemort's anger, but as I said before, you 
and Magpie are starting in the middle of the story, and I 
am filling in the back story leading up that middle.

To prove my point, let's play a game called 'Meanie-Meanie'.

Everything is condensed to it's most concise form.

Scenario One - "Mean Voldemort"

"Bring me Draco. Draco, your dad is an ass, now kill 
Dumbledore or die trying. Be gone!"

Sorry, but that is not much of a plan. In fact if he is 
just angry at Lucius, then why mess around with such a 
hopeless and pointless time wasting plan at all (or 
non-plan as I see it)? Why not just kill Draco and be 
done with it? Why throw away another year on a doomed 
and pointless plan? 

I know I've said before that Voldemort is irrational, but 
even he is not THAT irrational.


Scenario Two - "Mean Draco/Mean Voldemort"

Draco, wanting vengence against Harry and Dumbledore,
realizes the potential of the Cabinet.

Through a set of cirucmstances, he brings this to 
Voldemort's attention.

Voldemort likes the idea. The perfect scheme to attack 
Hogwarts and Dumbledore. So he sets Draco the task of 
fixing the cabinet so DE's can enter the castle. A little 
more than Draco bargained for but still doable and not so
critical.

Then Voldemort says, "By the way, you dad is an ass, so 
I'm going to let you personally kill Dumbledore or die 
trying. Be Gone!"

>From this point on, regardless of which scenario you buy, 
the story proceeds the same. There is nothing in my version
that alters or contradicts what the rest of the story tells 
us. Both versions end with Draco being given the task of 
killing Dumbledore. Voldemort's motivation for assigning 
this task is the same in either case.

Now ask yourself, which plan is /really/ a plan? 

I say scenario 1 is no plan at all; it is a hopeless waste 
of everything; time, resource, etc....

I say scenerio 2 is a brilliant Master Plan for invading 
Hogwarts and ambushing Dumbledore, combined with a bit of 
psychological revenge on Lucuis and Narcissa. It must have 
been a good plan because it succeeded.

Think what you will ...and I'll do the same.

Steve/bboyminn