Blown!Snape

[Neri]

No: HPFGUIDX 162654

> Pippin:
> <snipped> I'm calling it Blown!Snape because it starts with the
realization that there
> are, or were, nine people who knew that  Snape alerted the Order that
> Harry might have gone to the Ministry: Snape, Harry, Dumbledore, Sirius,
> Tonks, Mad-eye, Shacklebolt, Lupin and Kreacher.

Neri:
Then it's obvious Voldemort already knows that Snape alerted the
Order, isn't it? ESE!Lupin would tell him that immediately, of course
<g>. So the only question is: why is Snape still alive?

 
> Pippin:
> This inverts the usual situation with regard to the vow. It
> can explain why Snape might, with a twitch of misgiving,
> agree to the last clause, but not the first two.

Neri:
Are you saying that Dumbledore's plan from the beginning was for Snape
to kill him in order to gain Voldemort's trust? And that Snape decided
to accept the third term of the vow because he was going to kill
Dumbledore anyway? (I have to ask to make sure because you don't state
it explicitly).

Leaving aside the moral issue in this, Snape decision to make the
third part of the vow still looks really stupid to me, because it
effectively leaves the critical timing of The Plan in Draco's
unpredictable hands. The moment Draco makes an irrevocable move,
Dumbledore must be killed, or Draco's mission had failed, Snape is
dead and the plan is kaput. What if Draco would have made his move
already in November rather than waiting until June? And yet it doesn't
appear at all like Dumbledore is waiting for the axe to fall any
moment during the whole year. He takes his sweet time telling Harry
about the Horcruxes, for example.


> Pippin:
> Once again, Snape's information has led to the targetting of an 
> helpless child, not the son of an enemy this time but someone who
> seems to trust and admire Snape. The child is, IIRC, the only person 
> that canon ever says Snape seems to like. The mother of that child, 
> all unawares, now tearfully begs Snape to save him. No wonder 
> Snape can't bear the sight. 
> 

Neri:
I think the chain of events leading from Snape (especially DDM!Snape)
alerting the Order to Draco being sent to a suicide mission is too
long and arbitrary to saddle Snape with any responsibility. By the
same logic you could say that it was Harry's responsibility or
Dumbledore's responsibility, since they had an even greater share in
preventing Voldemort from putting his hands on the prophecy. But of
course, all three of them (assuming DDM!Snape for a minute) are
fighting *against* Voldemort and Lucius, so none of them can be really
held responsible for Voldemort arbitrarily deciding to punish Draco
for his father's failures. 

What had happened with the Potters, OTOH, was a much clearer case of
responsibility. In that case Snape was fighting on Voldemort's side,
and Voldemort was acting on the very information Snape brought him
when he attacked the Potters. 


> Pippin:
> Snape has to know that Kreacher was in communication with
> Narcissa. He must know that Kreacher was unwatched between the
> time that the Order left to rescue Harry and Dumbledore arrived.
> Could Kreacher have told Narcissa what Snape had done?
> Is that why Narcissa has come to Snape?
> 
> Theory: Though she pretends for Bella's sake that she's calling 
> on Snape's regard for her family, Narcissa has something a
> little more weighty on the table and Snape knows it.
> 
> That's why Narcissa offers nothing in return for the vow,
> and Snape asks for nothing from her. Their bargain is unspoken,
> a pretty piece of blackmail: swear on your life that 
> you'll get Draco out of  the mess you got him into, or the Dark 
> Lord will find out the *real* reason that the prophecy mission 
> failed.
> 

Neri:
Spinner's End really doesn't vibe to me like Narcissa *blackmailing*
Snape. I can't think of any sentence there that even suggests such an
interpretation. For example, if Snape is aware that Narcissa knows
about him alerting the Order, then he has some nerve explaining to her
in detail how it is all *Lucius's* fault. 

In fact, think about all this from Narcissa's point of view: she found
that her dear Lucius is in Azkaban and wrongly accused by the Dark
Lord because he was in effect stabbed in the back by Severus Snape,
and now Draco is also in great danger because of it. Would she fall on
her knees in front of such a man and kiss his hand? Much more likely
she'd go straight to Voldemort and tell him what Kreacher had told
her, stressing that it's all Snape's fault, not Lucius's, and if
anybody should be sent to suicide missions now, it's Snape and not Draco.

Also, the timeline of this theory seems problematic. If, even before
Dumbledore arrives to 12GP in OotP, Kreacher informs Narcissa that
Snape had just alerted the Order, what would she do? Lucius and his
friends are still there in DoM and haven't been caught yet! Narcissa
would contact Voldemort on the spot and warn him to send
reinforcement, wouldn't she? And Voldemort would never think of taking
revenge of Draco in the first place, because the onus would be on Snape.

Hmm. Unless Narcissa *wanted* to get rid of her husband? Maybe she
hoped Lucius would get killed in the DoM, and she will end up a rich
widow, free to hook with a certain Potions master? 

It seems Blown!Snape converges with ACID POPS even better than it
converges with Grey!Snape <g>.


Neri