Blown!Snape

[pippin_999]

No: HPFGUIDX 162669


> > Pippin:
> > <snipped> I'm calling it Blown!Snape because it starts with the
> realization that there
> > are, or were, nine people who knew that  Snape alerted the Order that
> > Harry might have gone to the Ministry: Snape, Harry, Dumbledore, Sirius,
> > Tonks, Mad-eye, Shacklebolt, Lupin and Kreacher.
> 
> Neri:
> Then it's obvious Voldemort already knows that Snape alerted the
> Order, isn't it? ESE!Lupin would tell him that immediately, of course
> <g>. So the only question is: why is Snape still alive?

Pippin:
Lupin and Snape are old enemies. The Dark Lord would doubtless
prefer to have some confirmation before he acts on Lupin's 
information.


> Neri:
> Are you saying that Dumbledore's plan from the beginning was for Snape
> to kill him in order to gain Voldemort's trust? 

Pippin:
I'm saying Dumbledore's plan from the beginning was to place Snape 
near the Dark Lord when Harry confronts him for the last time. As part 
of that, DD knew that it might be necessary to make it *appear* that 
Snape had betrayed and killed him, just as he, IMO, made it *appear* 
that Snape had betrayed and killed Emmeline Vance.

Snape accepted the last term of the vow because he knew he was
going to have to make it seem as if he'd killed Dumbledore anyway,
regardless of Draco. 

Since the murder Snape plans is fake, no moral issue arises,
and there is no problem with Draco's timing, because there
is never any need to wait for Draco. Dumbledore's
fake murder could be staged at any time, but Dumbledore
(IMO) insisted on waiting until his business with Harry was
complete. It was Harry who took his sweet time getting the
memory from Slughorn and forced a delay in the plan. But
as far as the good guys are concerned, it was never
anticipated that it would be  necessary to kill Dumbledore 
in order to save Draco, so the third clause will be inoperative
or so Snape hopes. 

In the event Snape was  forced to choose 
between trying to save a dying Dumbledore and carrying 
out his mission, with the additional complication that he
had to make it look good for the DE's. 

As you know, I don't believe he killed
Dumbledore. Dead men don't bleed. There is even a clue
to remind us: "But though gashes appeared in their 
sodden rags and their icy skin, they had no blood to spill".



> Neri:
> I think the chain of events leading from Snape (especially DDM!Snape)
> alerting the Order to Draco being sent to a suicide mission is too
> long and arbitrary to saddle Snape with any responsibility. By the
> same logic you could say that it was Harry's responsibility or
> Dumbledore's responsibility, since they had an even greater share in
> preventing Voldemort from putting his hands on the prophecy. 

Pippin:
No. If Snape had not alerted the Order, then the DE's, despite 
bobbling a bit, would have recovered the prophecy, Voldemort
would have no reason to be angry at Lucius, and Draco would not
be in peril. You might as well say that Snape couldn't be held
responsible for Voldemort's arbitrary decision that the Potters
were the people mentioned in the prophecy and should be
murdered. After all, he was fighting on Voldemort's side at
the time and bears no more responsibility than any other DE. 
> 
> 
> Neri:
> Spinner's End really doesn't vibe to me like Narcissa *blackmailing*
> Snape. I can't think of any sentence there that even suggests such an
> interpretation. For example, if Snape is aware that Narcissa knows
> about him alerting the Order, then he has some nerve explaining to her
> in detail how it is all *Lucius's* fault. 

Pippin:
But he doesn't. Snape merely explains that the Dark Lord is blaming Lucius
because Lucius was in charge, got himself captured and failed
to retrieve the prophecy into the bargain.  It's Bella who says it's all 
Lucius's fault. Snape says what's done is done and there's no point
in apportioning blame (which is a lovely irony since he knows the 
lion's share of the blame is his.) 

Neri:
> In fact, think about all this from Narcissa's point of view: she found
> that her dear Lucius is in Azkaban and wrongly accused by the Dark
> Lord because he was in effect stabbed in the back by Severus Snape,

Pippin:
Well, that  disposes of your theory that Snape shouldn't feel
any great responsibility for what happened...<g>

Neri:
> and now Draco is also in great danger because of it. Would she fall on
> her knees in front of such a man and kiss his hand? 

Pippin:
She said  there was nothing she wouldn't do any more. She would
have begged Voldemort herself if she thought it would help her,
why not Snape? Anyway, for the purposes of explaining why
Snape agreed to the vow, the mere possibility of blackmail is
enough.

I didn't get vibes that Ginny was lying, just that her tears went 
on a little too long. Logic reveals the lie: she did in fact know
that the Diary was dangerous. 

Logic reveals the weakness in Snape's position, Snape must
be aware of it, he can only fear that kisses or no kisses, vibes
or no vibes, Narcissa knows too much. 


Neri:
Much more likely  she'd go straight to Voldemort and tell him what 
Kreacher had told her, stressing that it's all Snape's fault, not Lucius's, 
and if anybody should be sent to suicide missions now, it's Snape and 
not Draco.

Pippin:

But without Kreacher she can't prove it (she doesn't know Lupin
is ESE! <g>) and anyway there's no guarantee that Voldemort will
let Draco off. He hasn't admitted it's a punishment mission, after all,
it's been presented to her as a great honor the Dark Lord has
bestowed on her son. Of course he'll know that she's not lying,
she must believe that Kreacher told her Snape was responsible.
But the Order is very cunning. Perhaps Dumbledore no longer
trusts Snape and wants to stick Voldemort with the job of
getting rid of him.

Neri:
> Also, the timeline of this theory seems problematic. If, even before
> Dumbledore arrives to 12GP in OotP, Kreacher informs Narcissa that
> Snape had just alerted the Order, what would she do? Lucius and his
> friends are still there in DoM and haven't been caught yet! Narcissa
> would contact Voldemort on the spot and warn him to send
> reinforcement, wouldn't she? And Voldemort would never think of taking
> revenge of Draco in the first place, because the onus would be on Snape.

Pippin:

We don't know whether Narcissa is a marked DE. If not, she probably
couldn't contact Voldemort instantly or get hold of Lucius in time to warn
him and if she went to the Ministry she'd only be captured herself.

Pippin