/ESE!lupin questions (long)

[pippin_999]

No: HPFGUIDX 146107

Christina  and Marianne raised some interesting questions about 
ESE!Lupin. Before answering, I'd like to point out that ESE!Lupin is 
really a theory about the plot rather than the character. The basic 
assumption is not that Lupin is a rotter, but that the books overall 
have a mystery plot. 

That is, an unidentified character is responsible for much of what
is wrong with the protagonist's world, and the discovery of this
character is essential to the resolution of the story.

It's possible that Pettigrew was indeed the only spy, that Lucius
Malfoy, Snape or Crouch sent the Lestranges after the Longbottoms,
that Bella killed Sirius.    But as  solutions to a mystery 
plot that would be pretty dull.

> Christina:
>
> Sirius's death scene is *very* hard to block out, just because it is a
> fast-action battle scene with many players, in which Harry is not
> paying much attention.

Pippin:
It's just as hard for the other players to pay attention to everything
that goes on in the room. But Neville and Harry are clearly
put at the bottom tier of steps.

"Harry seized Neville by the shoulder of his robes and lifted
him bodily onto the first tier of stone steps. Neville's legs
jerked and twitched and would not support his weight. 
Harry heaved again with all the strength he possessed
and they climbed another step--"

Then a spell hits them and they fall backward to the step
below. The prophecy breaks, and then Dumbledore arrives.
At that point Harry "had no more thought of leaving."

So they're actually not above the dais at all. They're 
lying on the floor *below* it. 

We're not told that Harry moves again until Sirius dies.
Whatever he saw, it was while he was on the floor 
struggling to help Neville, who was hit with a curse
that made his legs jerk uncontrollably. 

Christina:
.  If Lupin was the origin of
> the second jet of light, wouldn't Harry have noticed a difference?
> After all, Bellatrix is standing above Lupin, and if Lupin wanted to
> cast a spell with his wand covertly, he would have to be holding it at
> his side.  The trajectory of a spell coming from Lupin would have been
> so different from one coming from Bella that Harry should have noticed
> this difference immediately.  

Pippin:
That's why I noted that  Lupin uses wandless magic. Quirrell
attempts a wandless killing curse in PS/SS so we know it 
can be done.  

Lupin  would need to be almost directly behind Bella. It would take
careful aim, but Kingsley does something like that earlier in OOP.
His memory charm passes very close to Harry on its way to
Marrietta. If Lupin blocked Harry's view of the spell's trajectory
partly blocked his view of Bella, Harry wouldn't  be able to see who 
had cast it.

It would be convoluted for Harry to figure all this out, but all
that has to happen in terms of the story is for Harry  to realize 
that he actually didn't see Bella do it. I don't think I have to 
recount all the times Harry has mistaken his suppositions 
for reality. 

>
> Christina:
  I think what you are saying is that perhaps Lupin made Sirius think that 
Harry knew more about the prophecy than he actually did.  

Pippin:
I don't think Dumbledore discussed  the prophecy with Sirius
at all. Dumbledore says that the blame lies with him and
him alone that Harry did not know that Voldemort might try to 
lure him to the DoM.  

The Order doesn't seem to have been told why they were
guarding the DoM. It's not clear whether even Snape knew at
the time what Voldemort was after, though obviously he knew 
about the prophecy itself. But there is canon that Lupin and 
Sirius share some secret, because they exchange a glance 
when Sirius starts talking about the 'weapon.' 

The reason for not giving the Order  information on the
prophecy which  Voldemort already has is obvious: it means
anyone who uses that  knowledge can only have learned it
from LV.  That's a pretty big clue both for Dumbledore and
for us. Even if  Dumbledore  had told Sirius, he would have 
warned him not to speak openly of it. Sirius would not have yelled.

Bella  is twenty feet from the doors and isn't shouting when she 
asks for the prophecy. Neville is sobbing at her feet, so it's a bit 
far fetched that Sirius would have heard her from behind a door. 
No one mentions the prophecy after the fight begins except the 
DE who captures Harry, and he growls it into his ear. 


> Christina:

 I think what Alla is trying to say (and I agree
> with her here) is that Sirius suspecting Lupin isn't very good
> evidence that Lupin is ESE.  Alla was providing an instance where one
> character suspected another of being ESE and was wrong (something
> that, IIRC, happens a few times in the series).  So, saying that
> Sirius's suspicions of Lupin is evidence of ESE!Lupin is kind of like
> saying that Lupin and Dumbledore's suspicions of Sirius can be used as
> evidence for ESE!Sirius.

Pippin:
They certainly were until Sirius convinced us that Peter had 
betrayed the secret. Sirius assumed that Peter must have been 
the spy. But he offered no evidence. He just bullied Peter into 
confessing. But should we accept that confession at face
value? 

There's a link to Amnesty International on JKR's website. Would she really 
want her heroes to sentence someone without a fair trial, solely on the 
basis of a confession extracted under duress?
Would she show such a confession to be trustworthy?

Maybe JKR wasn't thinking about it. But she insists that she
takes a great deal of care with the plot and the  messages she's
sending.  Though she admits to being careless about maths,
I see no reason to doubt her about this.
>
> Christina:

<snip>
> many members of the WW have been kind and friendly to Lupin during the
> series, and so he should feel no "need" to cut his fellow werewolves
> slack.  Why does he care if they approve of him?  He does not need
> their friendship.

Pippin:
Doesn't he? Who was there to keep him company during his
transformations once he left Hogwarts? What happened when 
James and Sirius got old enough and wise enough to feel guilty about
what they'd been doing? How would Lupin feel if he 
discovered that they weren't willing to put their guilty feelings
aside after he'd done it so many times for them? He's not sitting
near any of his old friends in Moody's photograph.

Where was Lupin between the fall of Voldemort and PoA?
We know where the teachers were, we know what the Weasleys
were doing, we know what happened to the other Marauders,
but Lupin's history is a complete and suspicious blank. If he
was with the werewolves all that time, he could have become
very close to them. 

I agree with you that Lupin has a conscience.  But we never
see it chide him into taking responsibility for the consequences
of his actions. In PoA, he's terribly remorseful because
he *might* have bitten any of the children, but not a word 
about how sorry he is that Pettigrew escaped. 

The reason he gives for not telling Dumbledore what
he knew about Sirius was not hidden misgivings about 
Sirius's guilt, but fear that he would lose Dumbledore's
trust over what had happened years before. For that, he
was willing to let the school be surrounded by dementors,
and he does not change his mind even after  they attack
Harry, even after Sirius breaks into Gryffindor tower.
He was willing to take the risk that Harry would die or
have his soul sucked out - rather than face the 
consequences of  his betrayal.

Christina:
> I'm going to step back for a second and mention one more thing here,
> because your comment really hit on one of my biggest personal
> objections to ESE!Lupin.  One of JKR's primary themes in the series is
> discrimination and prejudice.  Throughout his life, people are afraid
> of Lupin and suspect him of wrongdoing *solely* because he is a
> werewolf.  We do not know exactly why Sirius thought Lupin was a spy,
> but I'll bet that your exact line of thinking was going through the
> back of his head ("All the werewolves are turning to Voldemort, Remus
> has been so good at keeping secrets from people in the past, etc").
> We know that most werewolves really *are* turning to Voldemort, and
> we've met Fenrir Greyback, who I'd argue is the epitome of werewolfish
> evil, and Lupin's foil.  What would it say if Lupin ultimately *did*
> end up being evil?  The public was right all along!  Werewolves really
> *can't* be trusted; they are inherently Dark and can follow no path
> but one of evil.

Pippin:
It's Harry's story, not Lupin's. If Harry, Ron and Hermione
reached this conclusion it would indeed undermine JKR's message.
They'd be no better than Fudge and his public after all, who
weren't   willing to take a chance there might be decent giants 
when as far as they knew all giants were all evil. But I think the Trio is 
better than Fudge. They have to be, don't they, for JKR's argument to have 
any force? How is she going to show that? If  the Trio judge all the
other werewolves by Lupin's choices, good or bad, they're
making the same mistake Fudge is. 

> Pippin:
> > Peter's stellar incompetence as a spy
>
> Christina:
>
> Not sure where you're going with this one, but we *know* that Peter is
> a spy.  We've seen him in DE mode, and he's admitted to it.  Also, I
> wouldn't say that Peter is as generally incompetent as people like to
> think he is (many fans, and James and Sirius).  He is competent enough
> to bring Voldemort back to life without messing things up.  And he is
> *extremely* competent as a *spy* - the man can turn into a rat!

Pippin:
 I agree Peter may not be quite as incompetent
as everyone thinks. But that doesn't turn him into Superspy!
Peter, who could fool a great leglilmens like  Dumbledore for 
at least a year. There's not a hint anywhere that Peter is good
at occlumency. 

Surely he betrayed the Secret and was branded with the Dark Mark.
But who betrayed the secret keeper? Peter himself? or 
someone else? James and Sirius suspected Lupin, but Lily
also knew who the real secret keeper was. If she trusted Lupin
did she tell him about the switch?

Did Lupin try to use that knowledge to bargain with Voldemort for Lily's life?

> Pippin:
> > his attempt to kill Peter in cold blood
>
> Christina:
> I'm not sure how you mean this.  Are you referring to the fact that
> Lupin was able and willing to kill another human being?  If you are,
> well then so was Sirius, and we're not calling him ESE.  Also, if
> Lupin were ESE, I'd argue that he'd have less of a reason to want to
> kill Peter.

Pippin:


Sirius was deranged after so much time in Azkaban. He breaks
Ron's leg, he attacks the Fat Lady...he's not himself, not the man
who speaks admiringly about Moody who never killed if he had
a choice. Even so he speaks of what he's about to do as murder.
But what excuse does Lupin have for putting an unarmed man
who's begging for mercy to death in front of three children? 

Even in combat, with Ginny and Neville in danger, we don't
see the Order using deadly force. 


>
> Pippin:
> >Fenrir Greyback's ability to predict the time of his transformations
> >well enough that he can position himself to attack specific victims
> >(HBP ch 16)
>
> Christina:
> Well, anybody that wants to figure out when a werewolf will transform
> can- it's at moonrise.  All werewolves have the ability to know when
> they will transform.  That doesn't mean that all of them will use it
> to evil ends.  Again, this goes back to the idea that all werewolves
> aren't evil simply because they can be.

Pippin:
It means that Harry's (and the narrator's) implication that Lupin transformed
because the moon came from behind a cloud is all wrong. He
either forgot completely that he was due to transform, or he deliberately
arranged things  so that Peter would have a chance to escape. The
real spy couldn't afford to let Peter be questioned by Dumbledore,
could he? 


Marianne:
<<trying really, really hard to see ESE!Lupin>> I suppose I could 
buy that, although if it turns out that you're right, I'll be sorely 
disappointed. However, a tip of the hat to you for sticking to your 
ESE!Lupin theory.

My question, though, is why would Lupin need to know about the plan 
to kill DD and who would have told him about the Unbreakable Vow? 
Or would he have only known about the plan at the moment it was 
unfolding to its end on the Tower? If he knew well in advance of 
the plan, he might very well expect Draco to fail, but he wouldn't 
necessarily know anything about the possibility of Snape dying as a 
result of the UV. 

Pippin:
In spy parlance, someone had to 'run' Draco. There had to be
someone to communicate Voldemort's threats and instructions,
and to whom Draco could report his progress with fixing
the cabinet. I think Tonks was under Imperius when Harry
ran into her outside the RoR. No doubt she was actually
there to check on Draco. But she would have to report to
someone, someone she could speak or write to without
arousing suspicion. 

I just noticed that Lupin says he tried to follow Snape
through the barrier and was thrown back...but I wonder if
he couldn't have got through if he'd chosen to. Hmmm....

Marianne:
Another big hesitation I have with ESE!Lupin is I forget why he 
would have turned to Vmort in the first place. Surely Lupin doesn't 
believe that he, a tainted dark creature, will be given the same 
rights as pure-bloods once the DEs are in power. Am I missing some 
other reason?

Pippin:

The other DE's might not know him as a werewolf. Voldemort 
wouldn't care. He'd probably think it was a fine joke if his 
pureblood servants were made to take orders from someone 
they'd detest even more than a halfblood, if they only knew. 


But as to why Lupin turned, IMO our best clue is probably
the sheer length of OOP. Rowling gives Harry direct experience
of how horrible it is to be the target of an oppressive regime.
As Harry watches Umbridge confront Snape, he's not sure
which one of them he'd like to see triumph over the other.
 
For the werewolves, Voldemort vs the Ministry  must be similar.
Also, considering the reputation of werewolves in general and 
Greyback in particular, Lupin must have been dangerously naive to
assume he'd been bitten by accident. He's always been  ready to 
cut his friends too much slack. Who knows what he could have
been talked into? Like Regulus he'd figure things out eventually. 
But if he'd already compromised himself, it might be too late.

I think at the heart of things is a choice Harry will make: to recognize 
that a person he likes as much as Lupin could fall into evil, along with 
a choice to recognize that a person he hates as much as Snape could 
turn to good.


Pippin