Spies, Lies and Self fullfilling prophecies

[pippin_999]

No: HPFGUIDX 146403

--- In HPforGrownups at yahoogroups.com, "justcarol67" <justcarol67 at y...> wrote:
>
> kchuplis wrote (asking the same question that arose in my mind as I
> read Pippin's post):
> > > OK, here is where I get confused....where do Snape and Sirius say
> they suspected Lupin of aiding Death Eaters?
> 
> Pippin supplied these quotes from PoA as canon support:
> > [Snape:]"It seems --almost impossible--that Black could have entered
> the school without inside help. I did express my concerns when you
> appointed--"
> 
> and
> 
> > "Not if he thought I was the spy, Peter," said Lupin. "I assume
> that's why you didn't tell me, Sirius?" he said casually over
> Pettigrew's head.
> > 
> > "Forgive me, Remus," said Black.
> > -- PoA ch 19
> 
> Carol responds:
> What the Snape quote illustrates, IMO, is simply Snape's belief
> (repeated in the Shrieking Shack) that Lupin is helping Black get into
> the school. He believes (understandably) that Black tried to murder
> him when they were both sixteen, and like everyone else in the WW,
> that Black murdered Pettigrew and twelve Muggles. 

Pippin:
Huh?
Sirius Black is the most feared of Voldemort's supporters thought to
be at large, everyone thinks Sirius is acting in Voldemort's cause, 
Snape believes Lupin will help him, and yet you don't 
think that Snape suspected Lupin of aiding the Death Eaters?

There is canon that  Snape believed that Harry specifically was in
danger from Sirius, besides the "bended knee" passage which
you quoted in your post which shows that he knew that
Black had betrayed the Potters.

"Everyone from the Minister of Magic downward has been trying
to keep famous Harry Potter safe from Sirius Black"- PoA ch 14

Are you saying Snape believed that the betrayal of the Potters
and the subsequent murder of "thirteen people" had nothing to do
with the Death Eaters??? 

Obviously  Snape suspected Lupin of something more than putting old
friendships above the safety of students if he thought Lupin would help
Black do anything! 

Carol:
> The Lupin/Black exchange, IMO, simply shows that each thought the
> other was a spy. Each knew that someone close to the Potters was the
> spy; each knew that he himself was not the spy; each underestimated
> Peter Pettigrew. That leaves only one suspect apiece: 

Pippin:
The unspoken premise here  is that  all the other members of the
Order had been systematically eliminated and Sirius reluctantly concluded
that only Lupin could be the spy. That makes a good story, but what 
canon  supports it?  Moody's photo makes it clear that
at least to begin with there were any number of people who could have
informed Voldemort of the Potter's movements, far too many for Sirius
to investigate. In any case, that's not how Sirius thinks.


In GoF, he suspected Karkaroff on the basis of his history and character.
We don't know that he didn't suspect Lupin for similar reasons, especially
since so much of Lupin's history is a blank  and his character
flaws, though seemingly minor compared to the sadism and xenophobia
exhibited by others, are the opposites of the virtues JKR has most 
praised: standing up to your friends, and courage.

Pippin