Spies, Lies and Self fullfilling prophecies

[justcarol67]

No: HPFGUIDX 146423

Carol earlier:
> > What the Snape quote illustrates, IMO, is simply Snape's belief
(repeated in the Shrieking Shack) that Lupin is helping Black get into
the school. He believes (understandably) that Black tried to murder
him when they were both sixteen, and like everyone else in the WW,
that Black murdered Pettigrew and twelve Muggles. 
> 
Pippin responded:
> Huh?
> Sirius Black is the most feared of Voldemort's supporters thought to
be at large, everyone thinks Sirius is acting in Voldemort's cause, 
Snape believes Lupin will help him, and yet you don't think that Snape
suspected Lupin of aiding the Death Eaters?

Carol responds:
Not Death Eaters plural, just *a* Death Eater (or at any rate, a spy,
traitor, and murderer)--Lupin's one-time friend, Sirius Black, whose
friendship Snape suspects that Lupin values over Black's murderous
propensities--and the danger Black supposedly represents to Harry.
Snape could be seeing Lupin's weakness, his desire to be liked and his
willingness to overlook the misdeeds of his friends (as in "Snape's
Worst Memory"), and applying it to this specific instance, rather than
seeing Lupin as "aiding the Death Eaters" in some more general sense.
(I think Snape is seeing Sirius Black in personal terms as the
betrayer of the Potters, whom he, for equally personal reasons, has
tried to protect after finding out how LV interprets the Prophecy, and
not specifically as a Death Eater or ally of Voldemort. I could be
wrong, though; it's possible there's more to Snape's violent antipathy
to Black than a personal agenda. He could be assuming that the
spy/traitor must have been a Death Eater and he could believe the
rumors that Black was LV's most important supporter, but I don't think
he does. I think he simply sees him as what Hagrid calls "a murderin'
traitor" and as a danger to the Prophecy Boy, Harry Potter. And for
personal reasons, he wants to be the one to bring the "murderer" and
his werewolf ally to justice. And if he can save Harry and friends in
the process, so be it. 

So, again, I don't see Snape as seeing Lupin aiding Death Eaters in
general, "only" aiding and abetting Sirius Black, whom Snape (IMO)
sees as Voldemort's spy and agent, the murderer of Peter Pettigrew and
twelve Muggles, and a serious threat to Harry Potter (as revealed by
Black's muttered remark, quoted in the Daily Prophet, "He's at
Hogwarts!"). It's possible that Snape has concluded on the basis of
this evidence that Black must be a Death Eater (a loyal DE, not a
renegade DE like Snape himself, though surely not LV's right-hand
man), but I still don't see how Snape could think that Lupin was
aiding Death Eaters (plural). Nor do I think that Snape would assume
that Lupin was a DE himself just because he aided his dear friend
Sirius, again putting friendship above all else, even if that means
becoming an accessory to Harry Potter's murder.

Snape's views, based as they are on the belief that Pettigrew is dead,
really can't be used as evidence that Lupin aided Death Eaters,
singular or plural, unless it can be proven that Sirius Black was a
Death Eater, and I don't think we have any such evidence. At most, we
have Snape suspecting Lupin of helping Black into the castle based at
least in part of false information (Black's conviction for murder and
the stories in the Daily Prophet) and in part on his own relationships
with MWPP, which seem to confirm his view of Black as a murderer. If
Snape was wrong about Black, and the "murderin' traitor" who betrayed
the Potters and spied on the Order for a year before that was actually
Wormtail, then Snape would be wrong about Lupin "aiding Death Eaters,"
as you put it. 

(Thanks for making me think about this, though; I'm beginning to
understand Snape's vehement hatred of Lupin in PoA a bit better from
the DDM!Snape standpoint, which you surely know I believe in. And I do
wonder how Black got into Hogwarts since the Whomping Willow passage
doesn't lead into the castle itself. Did he sneak into the sweet shop
in dog form? How could he manage that, even with Crookshanks' help?
*That* could be evidence for ESE!Lupin, possibly. Anybody have any
ideas?)  

Pippin: 
> There is canon that Snape believed that Harry specifically was in
danger from Sirius, besides the "bended knee" passage which you quoted
in your post which shows that he knew that Black had betrayed the Potters.

Carol responds:
Of course there is. I'm not arguing with this point. I completely
agree that Snape thought Harry was in danger from Black, and with good
reason, especially after the attack on the Fat Lady. But which "bended
knee" passage? I checked upthread and I didn't quote any passage. Not
that I'm arguing here. I'm just curious about the passage you're
referring to.
> 
Pippin:
> Are you saying Snape believed that the betrayal of the Potters and
the subsequent murder of "thirteen people" had nothing to do with the
Death Eaters??? 

Carol responds:
I absolutely agree that Snape thought Black had murdered thirteen
people (twelve Muggles killed because they were in the way and
Pettigrew murdered because he knew that Black had betrayed the
Potters). I also absolutely agree that Snape thought Harry was in real
danger from Black. (See above.) 

But, no, I don't think Snape would relate either the betrayal or the
subsequent murders to the Death Eaters, per se. He would see it as the
spy who betrayed the Potters to *Voldemort* (not to the DEs but to LV
directly) murdering the person most likely to testify against him (an
act of despicable cowardice but self-serving, not connected with the
DEs). Again, I think Snape saw Black as a spy, a traitor, a murderer,
and now, after twelve years in Azkaban, a homicidal maniac out to
murder Harry. But I don't think he was seeing Black as necessarily a
Death Eater acting in connection with other Death Eaters. (LV's
reasons for wanting to kill Harry Potter would not have been spread
around the DEs as a group, IMO. JKR says that even the ultra-loyal
Bellatrix didn't know about the Prophecy, and Karkaroff states in the
Pensieve chapter of GoF that LV liked to operate in secrecy,
withholding information even from the top-ranked DEs.) Snape himself
seems to have spied for Dumbledore without being a member of the
original Order of the Phoenix. Voldemort's spy's position would
logically be analogous to his, a member of the Order working directly
for Voldemort as the young Snape was a (repentant) DE working directly
for Dumbledore. Or that's how (PoA) Snape would see it, knowing LV's
penchant for secrecy.

Pippin wrote: 
> Obviously Snape suspected Lupin of something more than putting old
friendships above the safety of students if he thought Lupin would
help Black do anything! 

Carol responds:
I'm not sure that I follow you here. Yes, Snape thought that Lupin was
aiding and abetting a murderer (Black). How does Snape's (apparently
erroneous) view show that he thought Lupin was aiding Death Eaters
(plural) or that he thought Lupin was a Death Eater himself? And since
Snape's own loyalties are in question (*I* think he's DDM! but I'm not
JKR) and he seems to be wrong about Black, how do his suspicions prove
that Lupin is ESE!? 

Carol earlier:
> > The Lupin/Black exchange, IMO, simply shows that each thought the
other was a spy. Each knew that someone close to the Potters was the
spy; each knew that he himself was not the spy; each underestimated
Peter Pettigrew. That leaves only one suspect apiece: 

Pippin:
> The unspoken premise here is that all the other members of the Order
had been systematically eliminated and Sirius reluctantly concluded
that only Lupin could be the spy. That makes a good story, but what
canon supports it? <snip>

Carol responds:
The quote from PoA in your earlier post in which each apologizes for
suspecting the other, in combination with DD's remark that "someone
close to the Potters" was providing information to Voldemort. I think
(yes, I'm drawing inference from canon rather than providing
additional canon) that the information provided to LV must have been
something so secret and personal that only a close friend could have
known it. Consequently other Order members, say Sturgis Podmore or
Alastor Moody, were eliminated from the pool of suspected spies. 

Pippin: 
> In GoF, he [Sirius Black] suspected Karkaroff on the basis of his
history and character. We don't know that he didn't suspect Lupin for
similar reasons, especially since so much of Lupin's history is a
blank and his character flaws, though seemingly minor compared to the
sadism and xenophobia exhibited by others, are the opposites of the
virtues JKR has most praised: standing up to your friends, and courage.

Carol responds:
I don't quite follow you. If SB is not a good judge of character and
he suspects people for the wrong reasons (a judgment I happen to agree
with), how are his suspicions of Lupin evidence that Lupin is ESE!? I
would think that the opposite would be the case. He suspected Lupin,
but he's usually wrong in his suspicions (Karkaroff didn't put Harry's
name in the Goblet of Fire; poor victimized Barty Jr. did), so
wouldn't that argument make Black *less* likely to be right in
suspecting Lupin as a spy? (He also tells Harry to watch out for Krum,
but Krum seems to be a "good guy.")

Carol, who agrees with much of what you say but not with its
application to Lupin