Spies, Lies and Self fullfilling prophecies

[pippin_999]

No: HPFGUIDX 146462

>
Pippin responded:
> Huh?
> Sirius Black is the most feared of Voldemort's supporters thought to
be at large, everyone thinks Sirius is acting in Voldemort's cause,
Snape believes Lupin will help him, and yet you don't think that Snape
suspected Lupin of aiding the Death Eaters?

Carol responds:
Not Death Eaters plural, just *a* Death Eater (or at any rate, a spy,
traitor, and murderer)--Lupin's one-time friend, Sirius Black, whose
friendship Snape suspects that Lupin values over Black's murderous
propensities--and the danger Black supposedly represents to Harry.
Snape could be seeing Lupin's weakness, his desire to be liked and his
willingness to overlook the misdeeds of his friends (as in "Snape's
Worst Memory"), and applying it to this specific instance, rather than
seeing Lupin as "aiding the Death Eaters" in some more general sense.
(I think Snape is seeing Sirius Black in personal terms as the
betrayer of the Potters, whom he, for equally personal reasons, has
tried to protect after finding out how LV interprets the Prophecy, and
not specifically as a Death Eater or ally of Voldemort. I could be
wrong, though; it's possible there's more to Snape's violent antipathy
to Black than a personal agenda. He could be assuming that the
spy/traitor must have been a Death Eater and he could believe the
rumors that Black was LV's most important supporter, but I don't think
he does. I think he simply sees him as what Hagrid calls "a murderin'
traitor" and as a danger to the Prophecy Boy, Harry Potter. And for
personal reasons, he wants to be the one to bring the "murderer" and
his werewolf ally to justice. And if he can save Harry and friends in
the process, so be it.


Pippin:
Wow, we really see this differently! The Death Eaters were openly 
taking credit for their kills in the latter years of VWI, setting 
Voldemort's mark in the air for all  to see. IMO, it would be impossible 
for Snape to think that any member of the Order could knowingly 
help Voldemort and *not* think they were aiding the Death Eaters.

I think one of the things that is making Snape crazy in the Shrieking
Shack is that Harry accuses him of acting on a schoolboy grudge, when
from Snape's PoV, Lupin and Sirius are taking advantage of Harry's
schoolboy concepts of friendship and honor.

IMO, Snape was working off 
the following information in the Shrieking Shack:

1. Someone close to the Potters had passed information 
about them to Voldemort (PoA ch 10)

2. The Death Eaters were picking off Order members one by one (OOP ch 9)

3. The spy had been acting for  a year before the Potters 
were killed.(PoA ch 19)

4. Sirius Black was suspected of being a spy (PoA ch 10)

5. The Potters' Secret-Keeper betrayed them (PoA ch 10)

6. Sirius Black was 'tracked down by Pettigrew' and 
'murdered thirteen people.' (PoA ch 10)

It's inference that Snape knew some of this, but if he was
part of Dumbledore's hunt for the spy, he surely would.

Can you imagine Snape, who's always putting two and two together, *not* 
thinking it's all related and Sirius was the reason that  Order members 
were getting picked off? Further, if Snape  immediately assumed that Lupin 
would help Sirius in PoA,  wouldn't he suppose Lupin had been helping
Sirius all along? 

But I see your point. A spy with more devious and self-deluding ways
than Sirius might persuade himself that the information he was passing 
couldn't possibly be reaching Voldemort. He was just helping out a 
friend. We know Lupin is capable of some rather astounding self-
delusions, for example that Sirius's animagus abilities didn't
have anything to do with his ability to enter the castle and
grounds. 

However, it's simply impossible that Peter, who's *not*
much of an actor AFAWK, could sit around the kitchen table for a year,
gathering information he knew would be used to kill his friends,
and not give himself away. Nor could he successfully pretend that they
were still his friends if he'd turned against them.


Any suspicions that Snape  had about Sirius must have been based
on false or misleading information, but it's not necessarily 
true that his suspicion of Lupin was only based on false or
misleading information, especially since Sirius shared it.

Maybe Lupin was spotted in Knockturn Alley, or someone
overheard him quarreling with Dumbledore. Maybe it
had to do with the Prank. *Something* must have made
Sirius (and James) doubt their old friend. Something must
have convinced Snape that Lupin would side with Sirius
rather than with James's son.


The Marauders and Snape had known Lupin for years, they wouldn't 
suspect him of turning DE any more than Ron 
would suspect Hagrid of joining the evil Giants--
unless there was  a reason. Not just evidence, which
might be forged by Voldemort, but something about Lupin's
character and history. After all, I can't get most
of you folks to believe that Lupin is ESE! no matter
how plausible the arguments are, because in most of
your minds, Lupin's character and history firmly
establish him as a good guy. But Lupin's friends
doubted him. Why, why, why???


Otherwise I can't imagine Sirius saying, "Well, 
I know it's not *me*, so Moony must be the spy" without 
James rejoining, "Well, *that* can't* 
right, you might as well suspect Lily. Or me." 


Carol:
 Nor do I think that Snape would assume
that Lupin was a DE himself just because he aided his dear friend
Sirius, again putting friendship above all else, even if that means
becoming an accessory to Harry Potter's murder.

Pippin:
But Harry is the son of Lupin's dear friend James! What would
make Snape suspect Lupin of wanting to help Sirius kill him?


Carol:

(Thanks for making me think about this, though; I'm beginning to
understand Snape's vehement hatred of Lupin in PoA a bit better from
the DDM!Snape standpoint, which you surely know I believe in.And I do
wonder how Black got into Hogwarts since the Whomping Willow passage
doesn't lead into the castle itself. Did he sneak into the sweet shop
in dog form? How could he manage that, even with Crookshanks' help?
*That* could be evidence for ESE!Lupin, possibly. Anybody have any
ideas?)


Pippin:
Sirius could pass the dementors in dog form. That's how he got
out of Azkaban. He must have slipped past them on Halloween,
which was a Hogsmeade visit day, when the gates to the
grounds were open. We know that Filch isn't always terribly
careful about locking the front doors, even when the castle's
on high alert. 

The night Sirius attacked Ron's bed curtains, the twins were
in Hogsmeade raiding Honeydukes, so Sirius might have been
able to follow them.

Pippin:
> There is canon that Snape believed that Harry specifically was in
danger from Sirius, besides the "bended knee" passage which you quoted
in your post which shows that he knew that Black had betrayed the Potters.

Carol responds:
Of course there is. I'm not arguing with this point. I completely
agree that Snape thought Harry was in danger from Black, and with good
reason, especially after the attack on the Fat Lady. But which "bended
knee" passage? I checked upthread and I didn't quote any passage. Not
that I'm arguing here. I'm just curious about the passage you're
referring to.

Pippin:
PoA 19: Snape- I have just saved your neck; you should be thanking me 
on bended knee! You would have been well-served if he'd killed you!
You'd have died like your father, too arrogant to believe you might
be mistaken in Black" Somebody quoted that recently, I'm sorry
if it wasn't you, Carol!

Pippin