Spies, Lies and Self fullfilling prophecies

[pippin_999]

No: HPFGUIDX 146661

--- In HPforGrownups at yahoogroups.com, elfundeb <elfundeb at g...> wrote:
>
>  Reviving a dead thread, I emerge from the shadows to make one of my
> periodic challenges to ESE!Lupin.  Pippin, are you still there?  FWIW, I
> agree with most of the points already made in his defense, and only have a
> few to add this time around.
> 
> Pippin:
> I also tried  to show was that it's canon that Snape and Sirius
> both thought that Lupin was capable of cooperating  with a murderer,
> and however they came to that conclusion *they're  not wrong*.
> We saw Lupin about to help Sirius murder Pettigrew.
> 
> Debbie:
> But what Sirius believed was that Lupin was a spy, i.e., a traitor.  Lupin's
> willingness to help Sirius murder Pettigrew is the antithesis of betrayal;
> it is a demonstration of loyalty to a friend who he has just discovered was
> not disloyal at all.  And Snape's belief that Lupin was assisting a traitor
> reflects an assumption of continued loyalty within the MWPP group, not
> betrayal.  I just don't see how this fact leads to the conclusion that Lupin
> would be willing to betray his closest friends.

Pippin:
Lupin was about to betray everything his closest friends believed in,
everything for which  they had fought, suffered and died. It's a poor
way to honor their sacrifice. We can't even argue anymore that
justice wouldn't have been served if he'd turned Peter in, since
the head of the Wizengamot at the time was, it turns out, that
unreliable Ministry bureaucrat Albus Dumbledore. 

> 
> Pippin:
> You seem to agree with me that Lupin must have become
> estranged from his old friends. But what would he do then,
> this man who wants so much for people to like him? Where
> else would he turn? He wasn't naive about Voldemort. But
> he was, he admits, naive about other werewolves. It was
> a dangerous time to go looking for new friends, or so
> Hagrid told us in PS/SS.
> 
> Debbie:

> While I'll admit that it's odd that Lupin is not with the other Marauders in
> the old Order photograph (though given the fact that the members rearrange
> themselves so those at the back move to the front, I think it's possible
> that Lupin was directly in front of the Potters, then moved behind).
> Moreover, if there was any estrangement, I think it did not extend beyond
> Lupin and Sirius (each thought the other was the spy).  I don't see how he
> would be susceptible to an invitation to spy on Dumbledore and James, to
> whom he owes so much.  (Sorry, Pippin, this last point is one I've made many
> times before.)

Pippin:
There's more evidence of estrangement than the photograph. James must have 
thought Sirius's suspicion of Lupin was credible, or he would have wanted 
Lupin told about the switch. More than that, Sirius never confronted Lupin 
with his suspicions until the Shrieking Shack. Odd, if they were such close
friends. Remember when Harry thought Hagrid had opened the Chamber of
Secrets? He didn't get a chance to ask Hagrid about it, but he *was* going
to. That shows up  "each suspected the other but didn't know how to
broach the subject" as the melodramatic contrivance it is. Sure they might
hesitate for a while, as Harry did, but for an entire year?

Lupin's history with the order is such a blank that any scenario is possible.
But I can certainly imagine that he was getting more and more involved with the 
werewolves, identifying with their struggle against the Ministry, seeing that the 
Ministry was at the point of collapse, that his friends were *so* close to 
achieving their freedom...and all that was propping the Ministry up was the 
Order. People on this list have opined more than once that wizarding society
is so corrupt that it doesn't deserve to be saved from Voldemort. Why shouldn't
Lupin feel the same way? 

Or, alternatively, Lupin was passing information to the werewolves to protect
them from the Ministry, without realizing that Voldemort could use the
information to identify Dumbledore's Ministry contacts. Then Voldemort's
agents threatened him with exposure as a DE sympathizer and blackmailed 
him into becoming their spy. Lupin went along with it thinking he could 
clever his way out of it somehow without having to confess to Dumbledore 
what he'd done.

Then he found out about the prophecy and realized he'd have to choose
between the Potters' lives and exposure as a villain -- that's why his 
boggart is really a prophecy orb.

Or, Lupin never realized that information he was giving the werewolves  was
reaching Voldemort. He lied to himself about the possibility, told himself
that Sirius was the spy, nobly resisted all efforts to recruit him -- until he
thought he saw a chance to save Lily by giving Voldemort  James. 

As Dumbledore says, many ideas, each more unlikely than the next...but
it's equally unlikely that Lupin could be completely unmoved by the plight
of his people, or that he couldn't get caught up  once more in the cleverness 
of  playing a game against Dumbledore, or  OFH! fashion, against
Dumbledore and Voldemort both, always telling himself when things 
went wrong that it wouldn't happen again.

> 
> Debbie:
>  Pettigrew's defining characteristic, I think, is not his supposed lack of
> magical skill, but his laziness.  Of course, laziness often masquerades as
> ineptitude, so it should not be surprising that Pettigrew is regarded as
> "talentless" and "not in their league."  However, a lazy wizard like
> Pettigrew is capable of quality work if someone stands at his elbow to make
> sure he doesn't lose focus and screw up.

Pippin:
So who was doing that, in the year that Peter operated unsuspected as the
spy? Are you saying that Voldemort had another agent in the Order?


There seems to be this idea that Peter's job as a spy would have been
easy. I say  balderdash! How easy do you think it would be to hide from 
*your* closest friends that you'd joined a terrorist outfit and were now a
traitor? I think that would be hard even if your friends weren't counter-
terrorist experts and suspicous that someone in the outfit was a fink. 


> 
> Pippin:
> The murder of Cedric is ambiguous. Harry thinks Voldemort did it.
> JKR said that "Wormtail" killed Cedric.
> 
> But Wormtail is an *alias*.  Like Discworld's Commander Vimes, I want to
> throw my hands in the air at this point, and shout, "You recognized
> him by his MASK?" The whole point of a mask is that *anyone* can
> hide behind it. The whole point of an *alias* is that you don't know
> who it is.  I don't think we can be too sure she meant Peter. Especially
> since, as loyal DDM!Snape supporters, we must believe that JKR is
> highly, er, selective, about what she tells us.
> 
> Debbie:
> This argument might have more weight if Wormtail was a code name given to
> him by Voldemort.  As it is, lots of people know who Wormtail is.  Lupin
> knows, of course.  "Sirius is Padfoot.  Peter is Wormtail." Lupin tells us
> in PoA.  And so does Voldemort, who is on the other side.  And Snape, too,
> who has a foot in both camps.  Given the generality of use of Wormtail, for
> Wormtail to be someone else would be more than misdirection; it would be a
> lie.  Since Lupin was certainly right about the other three nicknames, and
> Wormtail is used by so many people to describe Pettigrew (and to his
> face), I think we are meant to understand that there is no other.

Pippin:
This argument might have more weight if the Marauder's Map, which
*never lies*, had felt obligated to let us know that there were two Barty
Crouches. Or if Harry hadn't once pretended his name was "Neville
Longbottom" and again that his nickname was "Ronil Wazlib". 

> Carol:
> I think he feigned friendship for a whole year without a qualm, all the
> while passing information on Order members (starting, maybe, with
> those he cared least about but working steadily toward the Potters.
>> 
> Debbie:
> Peter is a dreadful sneak, <snip> As for Dumbledore, I
> imagine that Pettigrew would have steered clear of him generally, and since
> Dumbledore is the type to let others think things out for themselves, would
> not have forced his presence on him.

Pippin:
Er, how does a dreadful sneak feign friendship for an entire year without a 
qualm?

Exactly how does a member of the Order of the Phoenix steer clear of
Dumbledore? 

 Peter would have been at Order meetings, where, presumably, the leakage 
of information was discussed. And I don't think Dumbledore follows the 
Harry Potter method of investigation: ie, decide on a suspect first, then 
link all the evidence you find to him. I think he'd be a bit more conventional, 
you know, decide on a pool of suspects and gather evidence 
about all of them. Even if he eliminated Peter on the grounds you suggest,
he'd still want evidence about other people close to the Potters, and Peter
would be asked about it. Peter's nervousness would give him away. 

Dumbledore would know that Peter was deceiving him...and he doesn't
cut liars a break when he thinks they might be helping Voldemort.

Pippin