[HPforGrownups] Re: Spies, Lies and Self fullfilling prophecies

[elfundeb]

No: HPFGUIDX 146705

Pippin, regarding Lupin's and Sirius's plan to kill Peter in the Shrieking
Shack:
Lupin was about to betray everything his closest friends believed in,
everything for which  they had fought, suffered and died. It's a poor
way to honor their sacrifice. We can't even argue anymore that
justice wouldn't have been served if he'd turned Peter in, since
the head of the Wizengamot at the time was, it turns out, that
unreliable Ministry bureaucrat Albus Dumbledore.

Debbie:
But why does that make Lupin a traitor and Sirius not so?  Sirius' obsession
with killing Peter equally betrays what his closest friends believed in.  In
fact, Sirius *invited* Lupin to join him in killing Peter.  Is it the
Azkaban effect -- Sirius' desire to kill is excused because he is reckless
and crazed with anger, while Lupin is too calm and reflective to be given
credit for such feelings?  I disagree.  Lupin tried to stay calm in the
Shrieking Shack, but there were moments when emotion got the better of him.

> Debbie:
> While I'll admit that it's odd that Lupin is not with the other Marauders
in
> the old Order photograph (though given the fact that the members rearrange

> themselves so those at the back move to the front, I think it's possible
> that Lupin was directly in front of the Potters, then moved behind).
> Moreover, if there was any estrangement, I think it did not extend beyond
> Lupin and Sirius (each thought the other was the spy).  I don't see how he

> would be susceptible to an invitation to spy on Dumbledore and James, to
> whom he owes so much.  (Sorry, Pippin, this last point is one I've made
many
> times before.)

Pippin:
There's more evidence of estrangement than the photograph. James must have
thought Sirius's suspicion of Lupin was credible, or he would have wanted
Lupin told about the switch.

Debbie:
But they didn't tell *anyone* about the switch.  They didn't even tell
Dumbledore, the leader of the Order.  And this decision made sense
independent of whether they suspected Lupin of being the spy.  I don't think
for a moment they would've told Peter except for the fact that as the Secret
Keeper he needed to know. <g>  *Sirius* might have told Lupin if he had not
so underestimated Peter that he suspected Lupin instead, but the fact that
Dumbledore wasn't told strongly suggests that James and Lily wanted as few
people to know as possible, to limit the likelihood that the identity of the
secret keeper would be revealed to Voldemort.

We also have no canon whatsoever on who James suspected of being the spy.
James may well have been convinced by Sirius' assumption that Pettigrew was
not qualified for spying -- Sirius says they only switched Secret Keepers
because Sirius suggested it.  As Fudge states in PoA, "Potter trusted Black
beyond all his other friends" -- not that I think what Fudge says is 100%
reliable, of course.

Pippin:
More than that, Sirius never confronted Lupin
with his suspicions until the Shrieking Shack. Odd, if they were such close
friends. Remember when Harry thought Hagrid had opened the Chamber of
Secrets? He didn't get a chance to ask Hagrid about it, but he *was* going
to. That shows up  "each suspected the other but didn't know how to
broach the subject" as the melodramatic contrivance it is. Sure they might
hesitate for a while, as Harry did, but for an entire year?

Debbie:
I don't doubt that there may have been some cooling in their friendship
after the Prank.  I posted my reasons in a post now lost in the mists of
time.  But it appears that there was little or no evidence of who the spy
was, or Dumbledore would not have believed so readily afterwards that Sirius
was the traitor.  It's a very different thing to accuse a friend based on a
mere suspicion than it would have been for Harry to question Hagrid about
the evidence Riddle had shown him.

Pippin:
Lupin's history with the order is such a blank that any scenario is
possible.
But I can certainly imagine that he was getting more and more involved with
the
werewolves, identifying with their struggle against the Ministry, seeing
that the
Ministry was at the point of collapse, that his friends were *so* close to
achieving their freedom...and all that was propping the Ministry up was the
Order. People on this list have opined more than once that wizarding society

is so corrupt that it doesn't deserve to be saved from Voldemort. Why
shouldn't
Lupin feel the same way?

Or, alternatively, Lupin was passing information to the werewolves to
protect
them from the Ministry, without realizing that Voldemort could use the
information to identify Dumbledore's Ministry contacts. Then Voldemort's
agents threatened him with exposure as a DE sympathizer and blackmailed
him into becoming their spy. Lupin went along with it thinking he could
clever his way out of it somehow without having to confess to Dumbledore
what he'd done.

Debbie:
I find this inconsistent with what Lupin says in HBP about his mission to
the werewolves.

"'Oh, I've been underground,' said Lupin.  'Almost literally.  That's why I
haven't been able to write, Harry; sending letters to you would have been
something of a giveaway.' . . . 'I've been living among my fellows, my
equals,' said Lupin.  'Werewolves,' he added . . . 'Dumbledore wanted a spy
. . . However, it has been difficult gaining their trust.  I bear the
unmistakable signs of having tried to live among wizards, you see.''"

It doesn't appear that Lupin was assigned to spy on the werewolves until
HBP, because in OOP he seemed to spend a lot of time at 12GP -- he wasn't
underground at all.  Now Lupin could be lying with impugnity when he says
how difficult it's been to gain their trust (under your scenario this would
be an outright lie -- surely they'd trust him if he'd been feeding them info
for years), but that doesn't seem to be JKR's style.  The beauty of
Fake!Moody was that he always told the truth, yet everything had a double
meaning.

Or, Lupin never realized that information he was giving the werewolves  was
reaching Voldemort. He lied to himself about the possibility, told himself
that Sirius was the spy, nobly resisted all efforts to recruit him -- until
he
thought he saw a chance to save Lily by giving Voldemort  James.

As Dumbledore says, many ideas, each more unlikely than the next...but
it's equally unlikely that Lupin could be completely unmoved by the plight
of his people, or that he couldn't get caught up  once more in the
cleverness
of  playing a game against Dumbledore, or  OFH! fashion, against
Dumbledore and Voldemort both, always telling himself when things
went wrong that it wouldn't happen again.

Lupin is distressed by the plight of werewolves, but from his own personal
experience.  He comments at the frosty Christmas that "[the werewolves] have
shunned normal society and live on the margins, stealing -- and sometimes
killing -- to eat."  He is certainly disgusted by Greyback's strategies.
"And this is the man Voldemort is using to marshal the werewolves. I cannot
pretend that my particular brand of reasoned argument is making much headway
against Greyback's insistence that we werewolves deserve blood."

I certainly agree that you've got many ideas, and that each is more unlikely
than the next (is that what you meant).  I can't deny that such speculation
is great fun, though.  So maybe Lupin is disgusted that Voldemort is using
Greyback to marshal the werewolves because Lupin thinks *he* could do a
better job?

Wait a minute.  I'm supposed to be arguing *against* ESE!Lupin.  Too bad,
because the sinners are much more fun; Faith does impose certain restraints
on one's speculation. ;-)    Ok, back to the program.


> Debbie:
>  Pettigrew's defining characteristic, I think, is not his supposed lack of
> magical skill, but his laziness.  Of course, laziness often masquerades as

> ineptitude, so it should not be surprising that Pettigrew is regarded as
> "talentless" and "not in their league."  However, a lazy wizard like
> Pettigrew is capable of quality work if someone stands at his elbow to
make
> sure he doesn't lose focus and screw up.

Pippin:
So who was doing that, in the year that Peter operated unsuspected as the
spy? Are you saying that Voldemort had another agent in the Order?

Debbie:
No, I'm saying that Peter merely reported on what he overheard.  He wasn't a
spy in the sense of covertly infiltrating an organization.  He was merely an
informer, repeating things that he heard.

There seems to be this idea that Peter's job as a spy would have been
easy. I say  balderdash! How easy do you think it would be to hide from
*your* closest friends that you'd joined a terrorist outfit and were now a
traitor? I think that would be hard even if your friends weren't counter-
terrorist experts and suspicous that someone in the outfit was a fink.

Debbie:
I would agree with you but for the fact that canon (Sirius, to be specific)
tells us that Peter was assumed to be beneath suspicion because of his
supposed lack of brains and talent.  But he wouldn't be the only character
in HP with more talent than he's given credit for.  Take Neville, for
example.  He's got plenty of talent; he just has had trouble controlling
it.  Yet too many people wrote him off as a near-Squib.  I think Pettigrew
was in reality more middle of the pack than near-Squib.  He did manage to
master the Animagus transfiguration.  He got help from James and Sirius, but
they were exceptional students.

Compared to the animagus spell, blowing up the street can't have been too
hard.  I'm sure he didn't aim at all those muggles (the wand was behind his
back, so he couldn't see what he was aiming at), and that his finger was
severed *before* he yelled out in the street.  Really, this wasn't so
complicated as to be beyond the capabilities of a trained wizard.  Faking
his death was so successful he did it again.

And as the group left the Shrieking Shack, Peter was very quick to take
advantage of the opportunity presented by Lupin's werewolf transformation.
In quick succession, he (i) dived for Lupin's wand, (ii) cast successive
spells on Ron and Crookshanks, knocking them unconscious, and (iii)
transformed and ran away.  (And in my scenario, he bit Dog!Sirius to get
away.)  So I don't think blowing up the street required an accomplice at
all.

> Debbie:
> This argument might have more weight if Wormtail was a code name given to
> him by Voldemort.  As it is, lots of people know who Wormtail is.  Lupin
> knows, of course.  "Sirius is Padfoot.  Peter is Wormtail." Lupin tells us

> in PoA.  And so does Voldemort, who is on the other side.  And Snape, too,

> who has a foot in both camps.  Given the generality of use of Wormtail,
for
> Wormtail to be someone else would be more than misdirection; it would be a

> lie.  Since Lupin was certainly right about the other three nicknames, and

> Wormtail is used by so many people to describe Pettigrew (and to his
> face), I think we are meant to understand that there is no other.

Pippin:
This argument might have more weight if the Marauder's Map, which
*never lies*, had felt obligated to let us know that there were two Barty
Crouches. Or if Harry hadn't once pretended his name was "Neville
Longbottom" and again that his nickname was "Ronil Wazlib".

Debbie:
The Marauder's Map did not lie.  Father and son are both named Bartemius
Crouch and they are called by no other names (except the nickname Barty,
which is used for both of them).  "Sr." and "Jr." are fandom conventions
used to distinguish them.  As for Harry, no reader was ever misled into
believing that Harry was either Neville or Roonil Wazlib.

> Carol:
> I think he feigned friendship for a whole year without a qualm, all the
> while passing information on Order members (starting, maybe, with
> those he cared least about but working steadily toward the Potters.
>>
> Debbie:
> Peter is a dreadful sneak, <snip> As for Dumbledore, I
> imagine that Pettigrew would have steered clear of him generally, and
since
> Dumbledore is the type to let others think things out for themselves,
would
> not have forced his presence on him.

Pippin:
Er, how does a dreadful sneak feign friendship for an entire year without a
qualm?

Exactly how does a member of the Order of the Phoenix steer clear of
Dumbledore?

Peter would have been at Order meetings, where, presumably, the leakage
of information was discussed. And I don't think Dumbledore follows the
Harry Potter method of investigation: ie, decide on a suspect first, then
link all the evidence you find to him. I think he'd be a bit more
conventional,
you know, decide on a pool of suspects and gather evidence
about all of them. Even if he eliminated Peter on the grounds you suggest,
he'd still want evidence about other people close to the Potters, and Peter
would be asked about it. Peter's nervousness would give him away.

Debbie:
We don't know whether this would have been addressed at meetings or not.
Fudge (who is perhaps unreliable but was not lying through his teeth) said
Dumbledore was sure someone was keeping Voldemort informed of the Potters'
movements and suspected "that someone on our side had turned traitor and was
passing a lot of information" to him.   We don't know that Dumbledore would
have interrogated people.  And Peter seemed pretty nervous all the time.  He
was nervous in the exam.  He acted nervous even when he applauded James'
tricks with the snitch (note Sirius' comments about wetting his pants).

In any event, are you saying Lupin was the spy *instead* of Pettigrew?  If
so, why did Peter admit to spying in the Shrieking Shack?  Sirius accuses
him of passing information to Voldemort for a year before Godric's Hollow
and Pettigrew's response is merely that "He -- he was taking over
everywhere!  Wh -- what was there to be gained by refusing him?"  An excuse,
not a denial.  He didn't even try to keep up his earlier assertion that he'd
been forced to betray James and Lily.

It seems to me that Peter's inability to keep a secret would be a problem
under any scenario.

Debbie
who thinks it might be more fun to argue the other side but couldn't betray
Lupin at this point by switching sides


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