ESE!Lupin condensed

[pippin_999]

No: HPFGUIDX 146764

I know the threads are getting a bit tangled, so I'll try to summarize a bit.
The ESE!Lupin theory states that Lupin will be revealed as a villain in
Book Seven. What one might call the grand unified version of the theory
is as follows:

 Lupin was instrumental in the prank, as Snape suspected. After he
left Hogwarts, Lupin joined the Order. Needing an alias to hide 
behind while working undercover with the werewolves, he used the 
name Wormtail. 

Lupin found it difficult to gain the werewolves' trust and may have
compromised himself in order to get it. In some way, he began
feeding information to Voldemort. Order members began to be
picked off, one by one. Lupin became more distant from his
old friends. Sirius, at least, suspected him of being a spy. 

Lupin learned of the prophecy. He bargained with Voldemort to 
save Lily, revealing that Peter was the secret keeper. Peter was 
captured and forced to give up the secret. Lupin was at Godric's 
Hollow, possibly disguised as Sirius.

After the debacle, he took Voldemort's wand from the scene and hid it.

He then pursued Peter, who was also pursued by Sirius. When
Sirius confronted Peter, Lupin tried to kill Peter but missed, blowing
open the street and unintentionally killing the Muggles. Peter
took advantage of the situation and escaped in rat form,  leaving 
his amputated finger and bloodied robes behind him. Lupin made
himself believe that Sirius was  a Death Eater and it was his curse that
must have done the damage. 

Lupin set up the Lestranges, sending them after the Longbottoms and
arranging for them to be caught, unfortunately too late for Frank and Alice.
With everyone who could identify him as a double agent disposed of,
Lupin went into hiding, and remained there until Voldemort returned
with Quirrell. 

Since Quirrell was under suspicion, it was Lupin who met with Hagrid
at the Hogs Head. He also killed the unicorns.

Lupin was instrumental in the Diary plot, knowing, as JKR says on her
website, that it could have made present day Voldemort stronger.

Lupin spotted Peter's picture in the Daily Prophet and took the
DADA position. When he saw Sirius at the Quidditch game, he
summoned the dementors. When he spotted Peter on the Marauder's
Map, he stole wolfsbane potion from Snape's cauldron and drank it
before running out to the shack. Once there, he encouraged Sirius 
to tell his story. Once he was certain that Sirius no longer believed 
that he, Lupin had been the spy, and that Sirius blamed Peter 
for the Muggle deaths, he meant to help  Sirius kill Peter, but Harry 
intervened.

Lupin then settled for arranging Peter's escape, knowing he would
transform as they were enroute from the castle, calling the dementors 
away from the gates and once again endangering
Harry. He then forced Peter to return to Voldemort and cooperate in 
the rebirthing scheme. It was he, AKA "Wormtail"  who killed Cedric.


Lupin told Sirius that a record of the prophecy was stored in the
DoM, mistakenly believing that Dumbledore would share this information
with Harry.  Lupin put Podmore under the Imperius curse and made him
try to break into the DoM.

 When Sirius revealed that he thought Harry knew about the prophecy,
Lupin had no choice but to kill him. Lupin "ran" Draco in HBP, put 
Tonks under the Imperius curse to use as a messenger, and arranged for 
Fenrir and another Death Eater to escape from the castle.

--

Well, there you have it. Shorn of its supporting canon, it's not hard to
explain. Linking it to the clues is complex, but JKR doesn't have
to do that anymore than she had to explain all  the hints about Barty
Crouch Jr, or H/G. Anvil-sized they are, once you get your mind
around the concept. Especially when Sirius asks Lupin to forgive him
and Lupin says, "Not at all." If that's not a sentence that can be read
two different ways,  I'm a hippogriff. And it's not the only one.

The other anvil-sized hint is the matter we've been discussing recently,
that there are discrepancies between Peter Pettigrew's character and
the things he would have had to do to function as the spy. He does
not seem to be a talented sneak, so the Potters and Sirius should 
have noticed that something was wrong. If they didn't notice because
he was no longer close to them, then it becomes untenable that Sirius
only suspected Lupin because only Lupin and Peter were close enough.

Peter  does not seem to be a talented wizard except when we're not
watching him, ie when he could be someone else.
McGonagall says he wasn't in James and Sirius's class,
and she knows the difference between a weak wizard and one who
only lacks confidence. The animagus spell doesn't take a lot of
raw power. Sirius can do it even in Azkaban, with dementors outside
his door day and night. 

I agree that ESE!Lupin would need to tell Voldemort about Peter's
life debt, but how do we know he hasn't? Voldemort's suspicions 
about Peter at the beginning of GoF certainly  indicate some
concern about Peter's attitude towards to Harry. 
Not concern enough, certainly, but this is, after all, deep magic, 
magic at its most impenetrable, exactly the sort of magic that 
Dumbledore says Voldemort has always discounted.

Why Lupin should have turned against  Dumbledore, to whom he owed 
so much, will be resolved in Book Seven, IMO, but I believe it to
be because Lupin found  his adult life unbearable. He could 
not endure the social disadvantages of living as a werewolf, yet only 
among his own kind did he feel normal. I see him as conflicted, 
agonized by Voldemort's brutality, revolted by Fenrir, but seeing theirs
as the only path, knowing they mean to use him against the people
he  loves but still hoping to get control of the situation without 
revealing to them what he's become.

Pippin