ESE!Lupin condensed and Lupin and Sirius replies

[pippin_999]

No: HPFGUIDX 146839

>Pippin:
>For the reader, the message is one that anyone who is serious about
>defending minority rights has to face. Sometimes those who once were
>the best and brightest bring disgrace on themselves and manage to
>fulfill the most derogatory stereotypes about their people while
>doing it.

Christina:

But we already have somebody that fills this role - Fenrir Greyback.
Even while defending the rights of werewolves to live as other people
do, we must face the idea that there really are some werewolves that
go around biting other people's children. So it would be superfluous
for Lupin to fill this same function.

Pippin:
I'm talking about what happens when it looks like a respected person 
went wrong...OJ Simpson or someone like that. It's not easy to judge
a person  by their individual choices when you know that 
unfortunately some people are going to take it as confirming
their prejudices about a whole group.

Fenrir isn't admired by Dumbledore or Harry, and he isn't 
caught in a moral quicksand, either.  He obviously
enjoys what he's doing. The way I see Lupin, he believes because
he's a werewolf he wouldn't be forgiven the slightest transgression,
so to hide each crime he commits another, and they keep getting
worse and worse.


> Neri:
> First, congratulations for what is arguably the grandest HP conspiracy
> theory. I'd say much grander than MAGIC DISHWASHER, which was after
> all concerned almost exclusively with the Shrieking Shack night. So
> your place in the Safe House is safe forever (or at least until the
> Safe House itself is washed into TBAY by Hurricane Jo #7).

Pippin:
Thank you! I  don't think the Safe House is going anywhere -- spies and
secret organizations will surely play a major role in Book 7 whether
ESE!Lupin itself stands or falls.

>
> And now to the details:
>
> > Pippin:
> >  Lupin was instrumental in the prank, as Snape suspected.
>
> Neri:
> Aside of Snape's suspicion there is about zero evidence for that, and
> Snape suspicion is hardly reliable, since he suspected James even more
> than he suspected Lupin, and was apparently wrong about it.

Pippin:
We don't know whether Snape's suspicion of Lupin is reliable or
not, since we have no idea what it's based on. Canon has
not refuted it, so it stands, IMO. So what if Snape's been
wrong about lots of things? Harry's been wrong about
lots of things too, but he was still right about Draco.

>
> > Pippin:
> > Needing an alias to hide behind while working undercover 
with the werewolves, he used the name Wormtail.
> >
>
> Neri:
> An amazingly lucky shot for ESE!Lupin, considering the Potters and
> Sirius later decided about Peter as the Secret Keeper of their own
> volition. 

Pippin:
Yeah, but the bad guys get lucky once in a while. JKR is fair
that way.

Neri:
And despite using the code name "Wormtail" it was not Peter
> that Sirius suspected, but Remus. So if I understand correctly, the
> sole reason we need the "Wormtail" misdirection is to explain JKR
> saying in a chat, *not* in the books themselves, that Wormtail killed
> Cedric. I'd much prefer that such a central clue/red-herring would be
> given in the books themselves.

Pippin:
"Wormtail" is used as  a red herring in the "Snape's Grudge"
chapter of PoA, where Lupin asks Snape if he means Harry got the
map from "Mr. Wormtail or one of these people. "  Of course Lupin
knows  Snape is thinking of Lupin or Sirius, not Peter.

The theory also explains  why JKR introduced Mark Evans,
a nobody character with a "common" name  after Crouch Jr.
had already been outed. It could have been a clue, along
with Harry claiming "Roonil Wazlib"   as *his* nickname, that
she's not finished with that particular plot device.


>
> > Pippin:
> > Lupin found it difficult to gain the werewolves' trust and may have
> > compromised himself in order to get it.
>
> Neri:
> Er... I probably missed it, but was there any reason to think Lupin
> was involved with the werewolves during VW1 ?

Pippin:
Since we don't know what Lupin was doing in VW1, I
speculate freely. Certainly the groundwork is laid.

Renee:
Lily telling Lupin about the switch because she
does not believe it's him, doesn't work, because the only other
possible spy is Peter. If Lupin is innocent, Peter is not. And unless
Lily's 100% convinced of Peter's innocence, she'll never consent to
making the switch. (And no. Lily being overruled by James is NOT
believable.)

Pippin:
I think it was Lily, and she didn't want to believe that
any of her friends were guilty.  It might be that she only
met with Lupin to let him know that *she* still trusted him, and
he, who seems to have some talent as a legilimens, sensed
that she was lying about Sirius being secret-keeper and
was then able to work out the truth. Peter's disappearance
would be a clue.

I am not sure what would have caused a falling out between
Lupin and the other Marauders, but we don't have the whole
story of the prank yet. We do have canon that Lily wasn't 
filled in on all that went on between the Marauders and Snape.

If I'm right and Lupin was involved, a belated suspicion that
Lupin had deliberately tried to manipulate Sirius into committing 
murder would certainly alter things between them.

>
> > Pippin:
> > <snip>
> > He then pursued Peter, who was also pursued by Sirius. When
> > Sirius confronted Peter, Lupin tried to kill Peter but missed, blowing
> > open the street and unintentionally killing the Muggles. Peter
> > took advantage of the situation and escaped in rat form,  leaving
> > his amputated finger and bloodied robes behind him. Lupin made
> > himself believe that Sirius was  a Death Eater and it was his curse that
> > must have done the damage.
> >
>
> Neri:
> I probably missed this last part too. I can't understand how could
> ESE!Lupin convince himself that Sirius was a DE and why is it even needed.

Pippin:
 Goodguy!Lupin theorists have this problem too, though they usually
gloss over it by telling themselves that Lupin didn't *really* believe Sirius
was a DE. Unfortunately canon doesn't bear them out. Lupin's agony
and self-loathing over not telling Dumbledore about Sirius don't make
any sense unless Lupin sincerely believed Sirius was guilty.

 IMO, Lupin wanted to think he wasn't  like Voldemort or Fenrir, 
*he* wouldn't   kill needlessly (Cedric hadn't died yet.) 

 He did not want to think he had unintentionally  murdered twelve 
Muggles , so he made up a story to excuse himself, 
helped by the fact that there were, according to Dumbledore in HBP,
excellent reasons to think that Sirius was guilty. He might even have gone
so far as to tell himself that the Secret Keeper switch was  a bluff, that
Sirius *had* been the real secret keeper after all. Hmmm, that would 
explain why he didn't search for Voldemort at once. What if he'd 
given Voldemort false information? Bad wolfie!

>
> > Pippin:
.
> > With everyone who could identify him as a double agent disposed of,
>
> Neri:
> And today Bella is just fine with that?

Pippin:
She doesn't suspect  she was set up. 

>
> > Pippin:
> > Since Quirrell was under suspicion, it was Lupin who met with Hagrid
> > at the Hogs Head. He also killed the unicorns.
> >
>
> Neri:
> I thought Hagrid said that the unicorns could *not* be killed by a
> werewolf?

Pippin:
He says they're not fast enough. Doubtless he's thinking of
werewolves chasing a unicorn and bringing it down, not
spellwork. But Lupin, unlike the werewolves on the fringes
of the WW, is a fully qualified wizard.


>
> > Pippin:
> > Lupin was instrumental in the Diary plot, knowing, as JKR says on her
> > website, that it could have made present day Voldemort stronger.

> >
>
> Neri: My apologies, I missed that part too. Canon?

Pippin:
http://www.jkrowling.co.uk/textonly/en/faq_view.cfm?id=17


>
> > Pippin:
> > Lupin spotted Peter's picture in the Daily Prophet and took the
> > DADA position.
>
> Neri:
> So you think Lupin knew Peter was alive. And he was *inside* the
> castle the whole year, and he had never tried getting rid of Peter
> himself?

Pippin:
Why should he, when Crookshanks had access to Gryffindor Tower and 
was so eager to do it for him? And then he heard that Scabbers was dead. 
Mission accomplished.
>
> > Pippin:
> >When he saw Sirius at the Quidditch game, he
> > summoned the dementors.
>
> Neri:
> So ESE!Lupin was trying to kill Sirius during PoA.
 There are so many simpler ways he could have done it. The simplest 
would be telling the Ministry that Sirius is a Black dog animagus 
and how he enters the grounds. 

Pippin:
Sirius had been in Azkaban since a day or two
after the Potters' deaths. Lupin's knowledge would have to date from
before his capture, and that would raise the sticky issue of why he
didn't mention it before,  during the hunt. Anyway, once
Scabbers was (supposedly) dead, he didn't have to worry about Peter and
Sirius comparing notes, and disposing of Sirius became less urgent.

Neri:
. Another way would be to ambush Sirius
 himself near the Willow, kill him and win the all the glory. 

Pippin:
When did Lupin have an opportunity to do this?


Neri:
A third way would be to leave Sirius a note in the Shrieking Shack or in the
tunnel, writing that he now believes in Sirius' innocence and that
 they should meet, and ambushing Sirius at the meeting place. 


Pippin:
I wouldn't like to be in Lupin's shoes if Snape got his hands
on a note like that! Besides, the theory posits that Lupin thinks
at this point that Sirius is guilty and proud of it. 

Neri:

Finally, when Lupin breaks into the Shack, wand at ready, and sees 
Sirius on the floor without a wand, he should kill him on the spot 
and *then* take care of Scabbers.    

Pippin:
The map must have shown Sirius colliding with Harry and going 
past him to seize Pettigrew. Lupin would realize then that Sirius
wasn't after Harry. He saw a chance to win his old friend back, provided
that Sirius blamed everything on Pettigrew. But he had to make
sure. 

>
> > Pippin:
>  > When he spotted Peter on the Marauder's
> > Map, he stole wolfsbane potion from Snape's cauldron and drank it
> > before running out to the shack.
>
> Neri:
> He was composed enough to steal the wolfsbane potion after he spotted
> Peter on the map, and yet he forgot the Map opened on his desk? And
> why didn't he simply ask Snape for a cup?

Pippin:
Snape must have already been coming with the potion when Lupin
saw Sirius seize Pettigrew. Lupin would have seen it on the map.

He left the map open deliberately so that Snape would follow him,
just as he left Harry's cloak lying on the ground. If he hadn't taken
his potion, Dumbledore wouldn't blame him for what the werewolf
did. But Snape and his 'satiable curiosity had to be dealt with.
If he didn't find Lupin in his office, he'd go looking for him anyway. 

>
> > Pippin:
> > <snip>
> > He then forced Peter to return to Voldemort and cooperate in
> > the rebirthing scheme.
>
> Neri:
> Then why didn't he do that himself long before that?
>
Pippin:
Lupin's contaminated flesh wouldn't be a good choice for
the potion. I shouldn't think it's  been tested with a werewolf
servant.

> > Pippin:
> > It was he, AKA "Wormtail"  who killed Cedric.
> >
>
> Neri:
> I'm trying to imagine the graveyard scene with ESE!Lupin, and I'm
> failing. How was he hiding from Harry? Even if he was wearing an
> invisibility cloak, was he making sure Harry shuts his eyes in pain
> before each and every move? And why going to so much trouble at all?
> Harry wasn't supposed to get out of the graveyard alive.

Pippin:
It's a dark night, there are loads of tombstones to hide behind, and
more than one way for a wizard to avoid being noticed. As Voldemort
says, he can't be sure that some of his DE's haven't gone over to
Dumbledore.  Even if Harry isn't going to be telling Dumbledore 
what happened that night, someone else
might. Lupin is his ace spy, and even with Potter dead, Dumbledore
is still to be feared. Harry is going to be ungagged and able to 
talk, so it's best if he can't blurt out anything Dumbledore
isn't  supposed to know.

>
> > Pippin: 
> > Lupin told Sirius that a record of the prophecy was stored in the
> > DoM, mistakenly believing that Dumbledore would share this information
> > with Harry.  Lupin put Podmore under the Imperius curse and made him
> > try to break into the DoM.
> >
> >  When Sirius revealed that he thought Harry knew about the prophecy,
> > Lupin had no choice but to kill him.
>
> Neri:
> I know we went over this more than once, but frankly I can't hold it
> in my brain, and so I completely fail to understand why ESE!Lupin had
> to tell Sirius about the prophecy in the first place and why he had to
> kill Sirius later. Incidentally, I think one of the main disadvantages
> of ESE!Lupin, as of MAGIC DISHWASHER, is that they're so complicated
> you just can't hold them in your brain.

Pippin:
How long did it take you to get the end of PoA into your  brain? People
are still confused about it. Lupin wanted Sirius to trust him, and what
better way than to share a secret? Besides, we need to explain why
Lupin's boggart is really a prophecy orb.<g> 
>
>
> Neri:
> Just out of perverse curiosity, did ESE!Lupin also imperio Tonks to
> fall in love with him? Or did she fell in love with him of her own
> volition, and if so did she do that before or after he impriused her?
> And are we going to get the saucy details in Book 7 or are we left to
> imagine them?

Pippin:
I don't think he did imperius her to fall in love with him. That's why
he feels so guilty about it. And yes, details in Book Seven.

> Neri:
> Umm... Barty's veritaserum confession took 7 pages in GoF, in addition
> to 3 pages of voluntary bragging and 2 pages of Dumbledore's
> explanations, to a total of almost one chapter, with some questions
> (like Barty's part in the Longbottoms affair) still left unanswered,
> and that was after only *one* book. I'd imagine the final confession
> of ESE!Lupin would take at least three chapters, smack in the middle
> of the Big Climax. As Pip!squeak used to write, I'd recommend a cup of
> tea and a biscuit.
>

Pippin:
Are you seriously advancing the convoluted denouements of PoA and
GoF as a reason *not* to expect the denouement of HP7 to be complicated?

> Neri:
> Two problems here. In GoF we are shown no less than three occasions in
> which Voldy accuses Peter of disloyalty, and in one of these cases he
> also punishes him severely. In two of these cases he doesn't have any
> reason to suspect somebody else hears what he says, an in the third
> case Harry is a witness, but Voldy doesn't have a reason to think
> Harry will ever get away. And yet, Voldy never mentions that Peter
> owes Harry his life. Even assuming Voldy doesn't understand the
> magical part of the Life Debt, I find it very hard to believe that he
> knows what happened and doesn't bring it up against Peter in any of
> these three occasions.

Pippin:
Um, I guess I don't get why Voldemort would think it was  disloyal of 
Peter to be saved.

Somehow, this doesn't sound like Voldie to me...

"Wormtail, you imbecile, how could you let Potter save you? You should have
died, then I wouldn't have to worry about this life debt business, and I could
have continued my existence as a powerless wraith in constant agony.
Shame on you!"

 But this does...

"No doubt that twinkly old fool thinks that sending me a servant
in Harry Potter's debt is going to save his precious darling from me.
But I don't think it will. Do you think so, Wormtail? "
"N-no, Master"
"Good. Of course,  if you have forgotten what comes to
those who attempt to betray Lord Voldemort,  I could
remind you. You don't need reminding, do you, Wormtail?"


Neri:

as a shattering end-of-the-series-that-is-only-one-book-away revelation, it
> doesn't explains any of what I consider to be the "official" big
> mysteries that must to be solved in the HP saga. 
<snip list>

Pippin:
Erm, aren't you rather glossing over the Snape debate here? Isn't
it kind of major to determine whether Snape really betrayed Dumbledore
or not? And if he didn't, then someone else ought to be the traitor, and his
saga should be at least as involved and compelling as Snape's, or
the reader will feel cheated. And since the real traitor didn't kill
Dumbledore, he has to have done something equally heinous,
preferably a number of things, in a number of books. There's
really no one else besides Lupin in a position to do that. People
have tried to develop theories for ESE!McGonagall and ESE!Fudge,
but they don't have the gravitas of Lupin, and they weren't
involved in the early days of the Order or the Prank. 


The "official" mystery, the one pre-occupying Harry in the middle of
the book,  seldom turns out to be a big one...for example in CoS, Harry 
is trying to figure out *who* is opening the Chamber, while, as Dumbledore 
says, the real mystery is *how*.  

In GoF, Harry mostly worries about how he's going to survive the three
tasks, when in fact his survival is guaranteed, and he should be
wondering who is going to such trouble to see that he wins.

Dumbledore does not seem to anticipate that Harry will have 
much trouble identifying and destroying the horcruxes. I don't
think he invited Harry along on his last expedition for a nice
break from school. I think he hoped that Harry's unique 
abilities had helped him with the Diary horcrux and would
prove equally effective on the others. 

Neri:
> In short, it seems to me you first shot your arrow ("Lupin is Ever So
> Evil") and now you are painting a magnificent target around it.

Pippin:
LOL! It seems to me that JKR painted a magnificent target
around Lupin, then handed her readers a bucket of whitewash
and watched them go to work!

Nora:
 Some parts of this theory can be argued for in
isolation, and might make good sense. But the whole shebang? If
Lupin were that unbelievably competent and lucky, he should be
sitting on a tropical island of his choice rolling in dough and
having hot waitresses bring him drinks.

Pippin:
The same would have to be said of Traitor!Snape.

Nora:
It remains to be seen how much of the plot JKR loads onto Snape,
after all. <snip>

Pippin:
She doesn't have to burden one character with the whole
didactic message  either. What's wrong with having Lupin 
be an ideal teacher but a moral failure, while Snape
is the reverse?


Pippin
thanking you all for your responses and hoping this
covers all the main points even if your question wasn't quoted