ESE!Lupin condensed and Lupin and Sirius replies

[Renee]

No: HPFGUIDX 146848

--- In HPforGrownups at yahoogroups.com, "pippin_999" <foxmoth at q...> wrote:
>
> 
> Renee:
> Lily telling Lupin about the switch because she
> does not believe it's him, doesn't work, because the only other
> possible spy is Peter. If Lupin is innocent, Peter is not. And unless
> Lily's 100% convinced of Peter's innocence, she'll never consent to
> making the switch. (And no. Lily being overruled by James is NOT
> believable.)
> 
> Pippin:
> I think it was Lily, and she didn't want to believe that
> any of her friends were guilty.  It might be that she only
> met with Lupin to let him know that *she* still trusted him, and
> he, who seems to have some talent as a legilimens, sensed
> that she was lying about Sirius being secret-keeper and
> was then able to work out the truth. Peter's disappearance
> would be a clue.
> 
Renee:
To me, this is not at all satisfactory. There is too much at stake for
Lily to allow herself this kind of wishful thinking: the lives of her
 husband and baby, and her own life. Lily was a very intelligent and
highly competent woman, not a sentimental fool who would stick her
head in the sand in wartime, just because mistrusting her friends
robbed her of this warm and fluffy feeling. (In the pensieve scene,
she doesn't display an ounce of sentimentality.) Anxious to do the
utmost to protect her child, she would not have taken the slightest
risk when choosing a Secret Keeper. 

That she went along with Sirius and James and accepted Peter, can only
mean one thing: she, too, believed Lupin was the spy. She's not
anywhere near him in Moody's picture either, is she? Whereas Peter is
sitting between her and James. And if she suspected Lupin, she had
little reason to approach him and every reason to avoid him. 

Moreover, if Lupin is a legilimens (though let's remember this isn't
canon at this point), Sirius knew: one of the arguments for Lupin
being a legilimens is their eye-contact at the beginning of the
Shrieking Shack episode and the swift conclusions Lupin draws there. 
If Sirius knew Lupin was a legilimens *and* he suspected Lupin of
being the spy, he probably warned Lily specifically against having
eye-contact with Lupin.

So, Lily as the one who gave it away: totally unconvincing. 

B.T.W. - this has no bearing on the ESE!Lupin theory - this whole
legilimency/occlumency busines makes the Secret Keeper switch rather
problematic. If Voldemort caught Sirius and used legilimency on him,
he'd have discovered the identity of the real SK very soon. And don't
tell me the OotP members don't know Voldemort is a legilimens. It
makes no sense to me for DD to withold this knowledge from them.

(Actually, I believe JKR made up Occlumency and Legilimency after PoA,
though I don't expect this to become a popular theory on the list.)  
           
      
I'll leave it to the other ESE!Lupin nonbelievers to reply to the rest
of Pippin's answers/explanations, except for this point:   
 
> > > Pippin:
> > > Lupin was instrumental in the Diary plot, knowing, as JKR says
on her
> > > website, that it could have made present day Voldemort stronger.
> 
> > >
> >
> > Neri: My apologies, I missed that part too. Canon?
> 
> Pippin:
> http://www.jkrowling.co.uk/textonly/en/faq_view.cfm?id=17
 
If I'm not mistaken, Neri was asking for canon evidence concerning
Lupin's involvement with the diary. That evidence doesn't exist. And
presenting your own theory as fact doesn't make it canonical. 

Renee