Plan for events on the Tower (was Re: Do any list members think Dumbledore might

[Ceridwen]

No: HPFGUIDX 147176

bboyminn:
> Then Dumbledore planned for McGonagall to send Flitwick to fetch
> Snape, he planned for Snape to disable Flitwick. Then he planned for
> Snape to rush to the top of the tower to kill him. 

*(snip)* 

> Again, I can see general contingency plans, I can see a setting of
> priorities, but I simply can not see Dumbledore conspiring to that 
> end.

Ceridwen:
I do think there was a plan, but as you did, I tried to see how it 
would work.  I didn't go back nearly as far as Montague.  I thought 
it would have come about as a result of the DADA curse causing Snape 
to get brain-dead and take the UV so a lot of the so-called plan 
would have been, 'Then Draco does something, you keep an eye on him 
and tell me what he did...'

What spoiled that scenario, where they actually need a lot of 
information to be filled in, was the way Dumbledore acted when Harry 
tried to tell him things about Draco.  Dumbledore was more than cool, 
he was cold or outright off-putting.  So he had to know something 
about what Draco was doing, because the other explanation, that he 
was as tired as Ron and Hermione of Harry always blaming Draco or 
Snape for what turns out to be no reason, just doesn't sound like 
Dumbledore.

So, I too vote for a contingency plan, if you could call it a plan.  
I think they're trying to keep Harry out of it for once.

Your quote above about Flitwick would fit perfectly well if Snape had 
been expecting *Harry* to arrive instead of Flitwick that night.  He 
has been watching Draco, and reporting his movements to DD.  Though 
neither he nor DD seem to know that Draco was getting DEs into 
Hogwarts, they do know he is planning on killing Dumbledore.  So, DD 
takes Harry out of the castle, knowing he will need Snape when he 
returns - perfect excuse to send Harry to the dungeons and keep him 
out of the rest of Hogwarts while this is going on.  Snape would, by 
agreement, stun Harry and rush off to either get Draco after the 
deed, or do it himself (which, for DDM!Snape who is going along with 
DD's plan, is a hateful thing, see his expression on the tower).

The contingency was loose.  Any detail, like Snape stunning Harry, 
was last-minute and tailored to the situation they believed would 
come about in a few hours.  Dumbledore set it up well enough by 
insisting over and over that he needs Snape and not Madam Pomphrey.  
He even says once that Harry should 'wake' Snape.

That would be the most detailed part of this emergency plot (hardly a 
plan!).  Snape supposedly is sleeping, Harry wakes him, he 'reacts' 
by stunning Harry, and this is what Harry tells everyone afterwards.  
There are just some people that you don't wake suddenly: you get a 
punch in the jaw.  By this scenario, Harry would not see Snape kill 
Dumbledore if that became necessary.  Everyone would think it was 
Draco, or just not know what happened.  Harry, by common agreement, 
would be kept out of it and Snape would tell LV that Draco did indeed 
successfully carry out LV's orders even if he did the killing, 
keeping Draco and his parents alive.

In this scenario, the plan, such as it was, fell apart rapidly 
because of information they did not have: part of Draco's task was to 
get DEs into Hogwarts.  This information from Rosmerta spurs DD 
onward from Hogsmeade, though at this point he is still expecting to 
be able to send Harry for Snape.  He lands on the Astronomy Tower, 
the farthest point from the dungeons, making Harry's trip to get 
Snape much longer.  Then another thing happens, Draco gets to the 
tower sooner than expected and Dumbledore has to freeze Harry in 
place, again, to keep him out of it.  This also keeps Harry from 
taking part in the fight against the DEs.  (Maybe there's a part of 
LV's plan we don't know?  I'm still going over this whole scenario)

Meanwhile, MM sends Flitwick to rouse Snape, not knowing that the 
first person there will be stunned.  Dumbledore kept her in the dark 
as well - honest reactions play better than faked ones, and she will 
have to be seen as truly shocked and grieving.

Snape stuns *Flitwick*, not Harry, and realizes something's gone 
horribly wrong.  He goes to the tower and if any Legilimency occurs, 
it is either DD telling Snape that Harry is there, but to go ahead 
and do it anyway; or, it is DD telling Snape that he ingested the 
poison and the plan otherwise has failed.  If no Legilimency took 
place, Snape is smart enough to see the two brooms and knows that 
Harry was with DD and was not in the dungeons nor fighting with the 
Order.  2+2=4 and Harry will be the sole non-DE witness.

I think Dumbledore is the sort of person to make lemonade when life 
deals him lemons.  The rest of the contingency, that of Snape killing 
Dumbledore, goes off.  Dumbledore is satisfied, hence the expression 
on his corpse's face.  If there is another part of the plan, we don't 
know about it.  This includes the still-fresh blood coming from DD's 
mouth, speculation that he isn't really dead, the phoenix rising from 
the funeral pyre, and Snape's odd reactions when Harry chases him.

So, that's my current take on what happened.  They didn't know much, 
so they had two guidelines:  Keep Harry out of it this year; Stop 
Draco from committing murder.  They had a goal or goals aside from 
that, the obvious one would be to keep Snape in with the DEs.  Beyond 
that, they were playing by ear and hoping that Draco would break down 
and give some useful information to Snape.

The plan that night without complications:  Dumbledore takes Harry to 
the cave where he ingests a Dark potion.  He impresses Harry with the 
fact that only Snape can help.  They return to Hogwarts, where Harry 
goes to the dungeons, wakes Snape and is stunned.  Draco gets his 
chance to approach DD (maybe Harry following him was cramping his jr. 
DE style?), and Snape shows up to help.  Dumbledore is found dead, 
ideally no one will know who did it.  Snape will be the one to 'find' 
the body after he realizes he has stunned Harry, who was with 
Dumbledore earlier on.  Draco and Snape are both covered, not only 
with the Order and the Ministry's DMLE, but with LV as well.

It would only be a one-night plan, not something that has been 
brewing all year.  It would attempt to take into account the info 
they have, that Draco is supposed to kill DD.  It would also try to 
cover the two guidelines of keeping Harry out of it and stopping 
Draco from murdering.  Not bad for the spur of the moment, but not 
very good at all given the lack of info and no planning for 'what-
ifs' like DEs showing up or Draco arriving at the tower, or wherever, 
a bit too early.

Ceridwen, who hates it when not-so-well-laid plans 'gang awry'.