DD and Draco's murder attempts - No Evidence!

[Ceridwen]

No: HPFGUIDX 153401

Alla:
> 
> Um, YES, I know that the event on Katie was the first attack. :) 
The  reason I said still is that the claim was made ( or at least 
that was my understanding) that Dumbledore knew everything after 
Snape reported to him about Spinner End and by everything, I mean UV, 
Draco will try to kill him, etc.

Then the attack on Katie becomes first practical attempt of waht DD  
already knew, NO?

Ceridwen:
I think that DD could not have been certain that the necklace attack 
was an attack on him.  I do think he could well have suspected, but 
so many other things were going on during that year that a Draco 
attack on Dumbledore would not necessarily have been the first thing 
to cross his mind when this happened.

They suspected something to happen, we know this from the owls being 
checked, Filch using that Dark Magic detector, and the heightened 
protections on the castle and its grounds.  Mme. Bones and Emmaline 
Vance had been killed, a minor Muggle minister had been poorly 
cursed, a young boy had been Imperioused to try and kill his 
grandparents with an AK, and so on.  The cursed necklace could have 
been for Dumbledore, but it could have been meant for someone else at 
the school, too.  My first impression would not have been Dumbledore 
as the target, because I just can't imagine him receiving and wearing 
an opal necklace.  Other people may have been targets and, since 
Harry didn't know about them, we don't either.  But the general air 
of the book led me to believe that just about anyone was a potential 
target.

Alla:
> Maybe he did NOT know, then my argument is MOOT, there is no need 
to convince me that then DD should not have done anything, I buy it, 
what I do NOT necessarily buy is that DD did not know it in the first 
place.

Ceridwen:
I think that Dumbledore could both know that Draco might try to make 
an attempt on his life, yet not know that the necklace specifically 
was meant for him.  The mead, yes.  But that was not discovered until 
Ron's birthday in late March.  Other people may have been in danger, 
and we see, through the various items in the Daily Prophet from the 
summer onward, that others are being attacked.  And while I do 
believe that Snape told Dumbledore that Draco had this assignment, 
there was nothing to link Draco to any other potential attacks.  If 
we were actually living the story of course, and not just reading the 
significant events in a book, we would have no reason to suspect that 
the necklace (an opal necklace for a man? esp. one with a beard that 
would hide it?) was an attempt on Dumbledore, or that Draco had 
anything to do with it since, after checking, we find that Draco was 
in detention while everyone else was in Hogsmeade.

DD, living through the story, would have no firm evidence that this 
was indeed part of Draco's plot.  It could have been aimed at someone 
else - more likely a woman due to the nature of the object: 
McGonagall, one of the students as a punishment to their families, 
maybe even Katie Bell herself, or her family, since Filch's detector 
would have caught the object and Katie would have been in trouble for 
trying to bring it in.  And poor Katie couldn't be any help after she 
accidentally touched the thing.

Bboyminn:
> > Yes, at the end, at the top of the tower just before Dumbledore 
died, he was able to bring the various fragments of information 
together and combine them with was Draco was saying in the moment, 
but that doesn't mean he had all that information all that time. 

Alla:
> Well, see, we don't know that IMO. You think DD did not know all 
the time, I think ( and as I said I am not hundred percent sure of 
it) and made the conclusion at the end, I think that at the Twoer DD 
was not necessarily in the position to put the pieces together and 
knew it from the beginning, DESPITE Draco having an alibi.

Now, HOW DD knew it, I don't know, but I think the possibility exists 
that he did.

Ceridwen:
I think he began to suspect the necklace in particular after the mead 
incident with Ron.  That bottle was earmarked for DD's Christmas 
(naughty Slughorn, he nearly avoided being poisoned himself, didn't 
he!) which places it in the timeframe with the necklace.  It also 
echoes the way the necklace was innocently being brought into 
Hogwarts, through a disinterested third party.  Until that moment, 
the necklace could have been intended for anyone, and sent by anyone.

So on the tower, DD's suspicions were being validated, though that 
doesn't necessarily mean that he knew for a fact and was merely 
without concrete evidence back in October.  

Alla:
> Absolutely, I agree and I want DD to act ONLY if he had enough 
evidence to act.

Ceridwen:
I don't think Dumbledore had enough evidence to act.  In fact, I 
don't think he had enough evidence to have more than a vague 
suspicion about Draco at the point when Katie was hospitalized.  We 
do know that Snape confronted Draco about the necklace during 
Slughorn's Christmas party, but that Draco denied any involvement.  
He suggested that someone had it out for Katie, and given the times, 
it could have been a reasonable suggestion.

In my opinion, of course, Dumbledore wanted Snape to talk to Draco 
about the necklace, to see if he was involved.  Draco was avoiding 
going to Snape's office or talking to him privately, which is 
probably why Snape dragged him out of the party for this talk.  
Dumbledore was doing all he could, with the information that he had 
and given the other events happening in the WW at the time.

My opinion, of course, but while I do think Dumbledore pulls some 
strings at times for the Cause and the good of the WW, I cannot wrap 
my mind around an amoral Puppetmaster!Dumbledore.

Hope this clears up my position!

Ceridwen.