Understanding Snape

[Neri]

No: HPFGUIDX 153822

> 
> wynnleaf:
> Consider.  If Snape had alerted the Order to go to the MOM prior to
waiting 
> some time to see if Harry, Hermione and Umbridge came back from the
forest, 
> then the Order would have gone to the MOM far too early, found
nothing and 
> no one there, and left with another "false alarm" report, the same as 
> happened when Snape contacted 12 Grimmauld Place the first time and
found 
> Sirius there.
> 

Neri:
So? When you're in security, you expect to have 20 false alarms so you
wouldn't fail to respond in a single case of a true alarm. This is why
people in security often seem so paranoid. JKR clearly knows that,
just look at Moody. 

The properly paranoid response from the Order would have been to check
the DoM immediately and, after finding nothing, leave a guard or too
for the rest of the night just to be on the safe side. I'm sure this
is what Moody would have done, which is an obvious indication that he
didn't know about Snape's first contact.


> wynnleaf: 
> Why would he have searched immediately?  Just to track down Harry,
Hermione 
> and Umbridge and tell them what?

Neri:
Aren't we talking here about secret agent Snape, who is an expert in
tracking people without letting them notice him? And if he wasn't up
to this task himself, he could call in Sirius, who certainly was. 


> wynnleaf:
> All of this argument assumes that Snape should have *assumed* that
Harry 
> would overpower Umbridge.

Neri:
Not at all. What my argument assumes is that Snape, as the last Order
member at Hogwarts, should have kept his eye on Harry, because this
was the Order's main objective throughout the year. If he found that
he wasn't up to it, he should have immediately called in enforcements
to do it. 

Obviously DDM!Snape had completely failed to learn in advance about
Voldemort's DoM operation, but if he's useless as a spy, one at least
expects him to do his duty as a regular Order member. 


>  wynnleaf:
> Dumbledore has allowed Harry to enter into so many far more dangerous 
> situations!

Neri:
Not during the OotP year. OotP begins with Mundungus deserting his
post of guarding Harry for less than an hour, and as a result Harry is
nearly assassinated. There's a big commotion about it and after that
the Order members never let Harry wander out of their sight in any
dangerous place. In the end of OotP Dumbledore explains again that
guarding Harry was one of their major objectives. 


>  wynnleaf:
>And we don't even know how 
> soon Snape learned that the three had gone to the forest, as opposed
to some 
> other part of the castle.

Neri:
He knew that Umbridge had caught Harry in her office, that Harry was
under a mind attack by Voldemort and that Umbridge was trying to get
sensitive Order information out of him. He certainly should have kept
his eye on such a situation and he should have kept HQ fully posted.
That's elementary secret agent stuff.


> wynnleaf:
> Snape's explanations at Spinner End add evidence that Voldemort knew
nothing 
> about Snape's involvement with sending the Order to the MOM.  Snape
taunted 
> Bella with the fiasco at the MOM and with the Death Eaters inability to 
> overpower students.  She replied that it wasn't just students --
that the 
> Order had shown up.   But he never once mentioned his own part in
sending 
> the Order.

Neri:
He takes credit for helping with disposing of Sirius Black, and Bella
doesn't contradict him on this. He also says that his orders were to
remain behind, meaning he knew in advance that, at the very least,
some operation was going on, and Bella doesn't contradict him on this
either. Now, if you argue that she didn't know what his orders really
were, then obviously she wouldn't know that he was ordered to warn the
Order too late. So why should he tell her? It's not something that
would advance his argument.


> Neri
> >2. Dumbledore and the Order rushing to the Ministry and arriving too
> >late would have been the ideal scenario from Voldemort's point of
> >view. <snip> 

> wynnleaf:
> Since it's clear that the Death Eaters had no guarauntee of winning
in a 
> fight against the Order and Dumbledore, I doubt that this would have
been 
> their plan.

Neri:
No, I don't think this was the plan either. But a plan for the Order
arriving at the DoM *after* the DEs had already left and then caught
by Aurors would be, from Voldemort's point of view, just perfect. 


> Carol responds:
> Snape must have done at least two other things in order to know that
> Harry had gone into the forest and for Dumbledore to know what Snape
> knew. First, he must have gone to Umbridge's office after Ron,
> Hermione, Neville, and Luna had left, sorted out the various hexes,
> and questioned the Slytherins about what had happened.

Neri:
The Slytherins couldn't tell him that Harry was in the forest even
after they were questioned because they didn't know. Umbridge herself
didn't know, when she left her office, that Hermione is heading for
the forest. Ron & Co knew because they saw Harry, Hermione and
Umbridge heading for the forest through the office window, as Ron
tells Harry when they meet again. So how did Snape know that he had to
search the forest? Probably because he did the most natural thing for
Snape to do – he stalked Harry and Umbridge when they left Umbridge's
office. He was walking out of Umbridge office, sending a patronus to
12GP, and until the response arrives that Sirius is there he must work
under the assumption that this is a true situation, and the only thing
he can and must do is keep an eye on Harry. He'd wait around a corner
to see where Umbridge would take Harry and he'd do what he's best at –
stalking people in the corridors. Anything less would be make him,
again, completely useless as a secret agent.  

> Carol :
>Second, he must
> have contacted Dumbledore at least once (also necessary in order for
> him to know, and inform Sirius Black, that Dumbledore was coming. (He
> tells Black to wait for DD, which he could not have known if he hadn't
> first communicated with DD.)
> 

Neri:
Dumbledore never tells us or even just suggests that Snape contacted
him that evening. It's simply not in canon. Had Dumbledore knew about
the situation, surely he wouldn't go incommunicado at such a time?
Wouldn't he immediately arrive to resolve the problem? And if Snape
had direct connection with Dumbledore, why didn't he send him directly
to the DoM? Why going to 12GP first and having a talk with Kreacher
while the Order members are fighting for their lives in the DoM? 

Snape knowing that Dumbledore was due in 12GP could be because this
was scheduled the day before, or because Snape's second call was
through Umbridge's fire (much more convenient than a patronus since
Snape knew she's not in the castle) and the Order members simply told
him that Dumbledore was due in 12GP.

> houyhnhnm:
> 
> Granting that your interpretation of Snape is correct (I don't agree, 
> but that's about a hundred other arguments), how does his 
> procrastination in alerting the Order advance that interpretation?
> 

Neri:
It suggests that Snape is torn between two contradicting objectives.


> houyhnhnm:
> If Harry has found a way to get to the Ministry, there are only two 
> possible outcomes--Voldemort's success or failure.  Regardless of his 
> reasons, Snape must want either one or the other because those are the 
> only two possibilities. 

Neri:
No. You are still stuck with DDM!Snape and Voldemort'sMan!Snape, both
assuming that those are the only two possible outcomes because they
are what's important for the two sides in the war. But Snape remains a
paradox whatever side you try to fit him in, which exactly suggests
that he's not on either side and he has his own agenda. He doesn't
care much if Voldemort succeed or fails. The critical question for
Snape is: does Voldemort succeeds or fail in a way that advances
Snape's agenda. And Snape dallying suggests that his agenda consists
of two contradicting objectives.  

The LID!Snape theory assumes that Snape's first objective was to
continue with the double-agent game as long as possible and come out
on top whichever side wins the war. But this contradicted his second
objective – he must repay his Life Debt to James's son before he can
bet on Voldemort's side. Even worse for Snape – he must save Harry's
life without Voldemort learning about it, because if Voldemort learns
about it the double-agent game is over and Snape is stuck on
Dumbledore's side, which might end up the losing side.

The LID!Snape version of the OotP climax is that Snape indeed had
orders from Voldemort to "stay behind", just as he says in Spinner's
End. So he knew about the ongoing operation but was afraid of warning
12GP because he was also told that Voldemort had a spy there (but not
necessarily that the spy was Kreacher). If Snape warned the Order the
spy might report it to Voldemort. So Snape was grateful when Umbridge
took Harry to the forest – Harry wouldn't die, Snape wouldn't have to
warn the Order and it would be Umbridge's fault that Voldemort's
operation failed. But once Snape realized that Harry went to the DoM
after all he had no choice left but to warn the Order, or he'd fail in
paying his Life Debt. Lucky for him (and for JKR's plot) Dumbledore
caught Kreacher and Sirius ended up dead. So Voldemort never learned
about Snape warning the Order and Dumbledore never learned what was
Snape's first message to Sirius, if indeed such a message even existed. 

For more details of this theory see the bottom of post 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/HPforGrownups/message/149239   
There are actually several slightly different versions, mainly
depending on the unknown nature of the Life Debt, but they are all
basically the same and in none of them Snape acts unprofessionally.
This is one advantage of LID!Snape – he's not a completely useless
secret agent working for either Dumbledore or Voldemort, he's a
capable agent working for himself.  


>  houyhnhnm:
> The Dumbledore's office scenes nearly always have a description of the 
> sky outside (I've been meaning to go through and tally them up to look 
> for a pattern.) Personally, I think Rowling just liked the idea of a 
> green streak in the sky because dawn symbolizes beginning and green 
> hints at evil.  It is the day, after all, when Harry's life is going 
> to change forever, because he will learn about his part in the 
> prophecy.
>

Neri:
I'll be interested to see your tally when you finish it. Personally I
could not find a single description of the sky outside Dumbledore's
office (or even just a mention of the window itself) during the five
books until the talk at the end of OotP. Now, interestingly once JKR
mentions it in the OotP talk (several times, the first immediately
after Harry arrives there, even before Dumbledore joins him) she seems
to suddenly realize that Dumbledore indeed has a window in his office,
and she describes the view out of it several times in HBP. Still,
these descriptions aren't so much symbolic as they help us with the
plot, especially with the time. For example, in "Voldemort Secret
Request" the window shows snow when Dumbledore is meeting with
Voldemort in the pensieve and no snow when Dumbledore and Harry are
back to the present. I guess you could find symbolism in that too.

The point is that time is important to JKR, even if she's not always
good at it. She mentions dates, seasons, days of the week, holidays,
hours and sun positions all the time. Her early plan of OotP that
she's recently published in her website is arranged by months, with a
table showing what happens with each of the characters and plot lines
at any point in time. If she also had a similar table for the OotP
climax, and it's almost inconceivable that she hadn't, then it would
be arranged by hours, and it would be practically impossible for her
not to notice that there's a huge hole of about five hours when Harry
& Co have all these incredible adventures over several chapters while
the Order is doing absolutely nothing.

Neri