High Noon for OFH!Snape

[pippin_999]

No: HPFGUIDX 149495

Nora: 
On the other hand, this risk does potentially free up other choices 
> in the long run--such as the choice not to be a double agent spy 
> anymore, and the choice not to have to pretend to be something he may 
> not be.  I think we should keep both short-term and long-term goals 
> in mind when we think about choices and limitations, because things 
> which are short-term setbacks can be long-term benefits.

Pippin:
But surely if killing Dumbledore was a major step in a plan that 
involved great, if calculated risk, we should see some indication of
relief that this extremely tricky part of the plan has been accomplished

I know we're all speculating here, but as you yourself have pointed out
many times, there's a difference between speculation based on what is
in canon and speculation based on what is not.
 

> > Betsy Hp:
> > I agree with both of you. <g>  The OFH!Snape argument is based 
> > largly on "eh, he makes no sense so he must OFH" with a side order 
> > of "and while I *want* him to be ESE, JKR isn't writing him that 
> > way and since I can't stand the idea of Snape being DDM, I'll stick 
> > with the impossible to make sense of OFH".  
> 
> As opposed to the contortions one had to go through to explain away 
> the AK and make it a plan and all of that... :)

Pippin:
Not contortions, canon. There are only three paths available to
a  character on Voldemort's hit list who wants to survive long term

1) Be Harry Potter
2) Join Voldemort
3) Fake your death

Three is the only option for Dumbledore, right? 
And he is on the hit list, right?
Voldemort tried to kill Dumbledore at the MoM. He didn't have
to do that, he could have grabbed Bella and scarpered straightaway.
Conclusion: Voldemort wants Dumbledore dead


As this would be a very significant killing, it's quite likely that  no
matter what Voldie told Snape or Draco,  he planned to do it himself.
He wouldn't want any other to steal the glory of killing the wizard
some say is even more powerful than he is, not to mention that
getting away with it might give his Death Eaters ideas.

And since Voldemort knows he can get  himself and his agents into
Hogwarts without Snape's help, and the Order will most likely
be fatally crippled without Dumbledore, Snape is not necessary to
Voldemort's plans.
 
Plus, if there is a spy in the Order, then Voldemort knows all about how
Snape warned the Order about the MoM, and will wish to punish
Snape. 

Conclusion: If Voldemort ordered or hinted that Snape should kill 
Dumbledore, the purpose would be to eliminate/punish Snape.

So the situation for DDM!Snape going into Spinner's End might be this.

1)Voldemort has told Snape that there's a plan to send Draco after
Dumbledore.
2) Voldemort has ordered Snape not to hinder Draco in any way. 
3) Voldemort has hinted that Draco's failure will be an opportunity for Snape.
4) Dumbledore has deduced from this that if Snape is ordered to attack him,
the purpose will be to eliminate Snape

So DDM!Snape, in vowing to try to help Draco and to kill Dumbledore 
if Draco fails, would not  be putting Dumbledore or himself in any more 
danger than they were already.

In fact he's created an opportunity for the fake death which is the *only*
way to save Dumbledore, because while it would be very hard to fool
Voldemort into thinking he'd killed Dumbledore, it might just be possible
to fool him into thinking that Snape or Draco had done it. And the
wording of the vow is twisty enough to give Snape an out.

This explains the vow, and the argument in the forest. Snape no doubt
tried to find out where Slughorn had got the mead and was able to trace
it to Rosmerta. He may have been arguing with Dumbledore about 
questioning Rosmerta, to see if she was under Imperius and if so who
had done it (it can't have been Draco because he didn't go to Hogsmeade.)
Dumbledore, remembering why Bode was murdered, refused to let him. 

Snape told Dumbledore that Dumbledore was taking too much for granted
and maybe he didn't want to do it (watch over Draco without hindering him)
anymore. Dumbledore grew angry (we have seen this happen
only when an adult menaces a student) and told Snape he'd agreed to do
it and that's that. And he was to continue his investigations *in Slytherin
House* -- ie, not in Hogsmeade. 

Pippin
agreeing that  ESE!Lupin does explain everything about Lupin and Pettigrew 
and a fair few things about Snape. Maybe one day, you'll blame JKR for that, 
not me :) And the howls will far louder than those occasioned by any
flavor of Snape. I'm looking forward to it.