Snape's half truths in "Spinner's End"

[justcarol67]

No: HPFGUIDX 149573

Note: This is a revised version of my interrupted post of this
morning, which I've deleted. The first part is the same, but the
ending is different.

Magpie (interpreting Magda's theory):
> >Oh.  So this is a slightly different scenario.  Snape isn't trying
to get information from Bella and Cissy; he's not bluffing when he
thinks he knows the task.  He just has the wrong idea about the task.
 We just never are never told what Snape thought he was
vowing to do and how he found out otherwise.
>
Magda's response:
> Yes, that's basically my view.  Although I would say that he found
out otherwise when he emerged at the top of the tower and a DE said
"The boy doesn't seem able to..." and Dumbledore was the only target
in sight.
>

Carol notes:
Not that it's important, but it's still a bluff regardless of whether
he thinks he knows or is pretending that he knows but has no clue.
Also, he may or may not know whom Draco has been assigned to kill, but
he certainly doesn't know about the Vanishing Cabinet or he wouldn't
have resorted to Legilimency on Draco.

Magpie:
> ><snip> There are no scenes of Snape actively keeping Harry and
Draco apart that I can remember, and Harry's following Draco around,
not vice versa. You'd think if he was watching them Snape would notice
that.  And notice that the bottle of poisoned wine was supposed to be
for DD. Harry doesn't even drink wine.
>
Magda:
> Well, Snape goes down to the gates to pick up Harry when he's late
for the feast - to check out what happened, I'm sure.  He also gives
Harry a Saturday detention after the sectumsempra (sp?) incident which
keeps him off the quidditch pitch - another place that "accidents"
might happen.  Snape was also concerned - visibly - when Draco was
caught trying to crash Slughorn's Christmas party - a party where
Harry was present.
>
Carol responds:
I agree with Magpie that Snape would have known from the face-stomping
incident that Harry was not the target. More important, why would
Narcissa be so fearful about Draco trying to kill Harry? It would be
easy, at least in Narcissa's view. Dimbledore is another matter
altogether, and neither Snape nor Narcissa would expect Draco to be
able to manage it. And surely Voldemort wouldn't assign Draco the task
of killing Harry, which he wants to do himself, or consider it a way
of punishing the Malfoys. Imagine how humiliating it would be for
Voldemort if the Malfoy boy easily killed the Potter boy. (It's
difficult for *Voldemort* to kill Harry because of all the protections
that were put on him, but it probably wouldn't be difficult for anyone
else.)

Snape's confrontation with Draco, where he's angry and fearful, occurs
soon after the cursed necklace incident. The argument in the forest
occurs soon after the poisoned mead incident. I don't think the timing
is coincidental. I'm pretty sure he knows that Draco is responsible in
both cases (certainly he does in the first). 

Magda (I think--the attributions are missing):
> He also gave detentions to Crabbe and Goyle, so that Draco's
henchmen weren't available to him if he was planning to ambush Harry.
(Showing that Snape knows a lot about Draco's history of tactics.)
<big snip>

Carol responds:
The detentions could have been a means of Legilimencing Crabbe and
Goyle to see if they knew anything about what Draco was up to. He
would merely have discovered what he probably already knew, that Draco
was up to something in the RoR. I see no evidence here that Snape
thought Harry was the target.

Magda: 
> Snape charges up to the Tower and finds Draco and three DE's with
Dumbledore.  He looks around - no visible Harry.  One of the DE's
says, "we've got a problem Snape, the boy doesn't seem able to -"  I
would submit that in that moment he realized who the target was.  At
the time, that DE's comment struck me as inserted specifically for a
purpose - and I deduce that the purpose for to inform Snape of Draco's
real target. <big snip>

Carol responds:
Four DEs, actually, not counting Draco. And Snape would have seen the
second broom and deduced that Harry was present in his Invisibility
Cloak. I think the DE's remark is inserted to alert Snape that the UV
is about to kick in. This is the moment when it seems that Draco will
fail. Snape has only seconds to decide what to do, and he doesn't even
raise his wand when Dumbledore speaks, though we do see hatred and
revulssion on his face when he realizes what DD wants him to do. And
even then, the seconds are ticking away, as (IMO) DD reminds him with
"Severus, please. . . ." I think he knew very well what Draco was
supposed to do. It's his own part that he doesn't want to play.

I do see one bit of evidence that could favor Magda's theory, and
that's the repeated Saturday detentions with Harry, but I think
they're intended to keep Harry away from Draco (and under Snape's eye)
rather than keeping Draco away from Harry. The only thing that bothers
me is that Snape can't keep an eye on Draco when he has Harry in his
office. But then, it's impossible to watch him all the time, anyway,
and Snape is certainly aware that Draco is spending lots of time in
the RoR. I'd be surprised if he hadn't figured out the identity of
Draco's little "female" helpers, either.

Carol, with apologies for the partly repeated post, but I couldn't
keep the DSL guy waiting (It took three hours to install--what a
nightmare!)