But DID James listen? (was LID!Snape rides again )

[Ceridwen]

No: HPFGUIDX 149992

Ceridwen wrote:
> > <snip> It's certain that Snape got the impression that James was
> ignoring his warning.  He thought Sirius was the SK at least 
through PoA.
> 
Carol responds:
> I agree with you to this point.

Ceridwen:
This is a good start.  I'm already doing better here than I do with 
my kids!

Carol:
> I don't think there is any canon for what he said or how he 
presented
> himself, only his assertion that James "arrogantly" rejected his
> warning. Both would be in character, and his coming from Dumbledore
> would explain how he knew there was a Secret Keeper in the first
> place. (Voldemort wouldn't know that, and why would Snape make his
> connection to Voldemort known? That would hurt his cause, not help 
it.)

Ceridwen:
The cumulative idea I've gotten from reading the books is that 
Voldemort was out to get the Kid With The Power.  Because of that, 
the family of the suspected KWTP went into hiding.  (not official 
canon follows) Both sides knew what was going on, and both sides had 
an idea that the other side knew what it was doing.  Voldemort would 
suspect at least that the Potters would go into hiding, which as far 
as I know, would require a Secret Keeper for a formal spell.

James already knows that Snape is a Dark Arts expert.  That was one 
reason he didn't get along with him, according to Sirius.  I'm sure 
there were other reasons which escalated as they went through more 
and more years of school together, but with that one piece of 
knowledge, there's no reason why James wouldn't at least suspect that 
Snape was sympathetic with LV's cause if not actually signed on as a 
DE.  And in a small population like the recent graduates of Hogwarts, 
the gossip mill probably had Snape pegged as a DE from seconds after 
he received the Mark.  Rumor, sure.  But believable with what James 
knows of him.

Also, would it be likely that Dumbledore would go around talking to 
people about the SK indiscriminately?  James might have wondered at 
Dumbledore telling Snape, of all people.  So Snape representing 
himself as just about anything would raise James's red-flag detector 
where the safety of his family was involved.

I admit this is mostly speculation, but I don't think it's 
unreasonable from reading the books.

Carol: 
*(snipping much better idea than mine)*
> Straightforward reading (IMO): Snape approaches James alone or with
> Lily and tells him that he knows from Dumbledore that one of the
> Potters' friends is a traitor who has been leaking secrets to
> Voldemort. Mentioning DD's Secret Keeper suggestion would enhance 
his
> credibility: He could not know that unless DD himself had told him.
> But James, who has already rejected Dumbledore as Secret Keeper in
> favor of Sirius, "arrogantly" rejects Snape's advice. 

Ceridwen:
You got me thinking here: could James have rejected Snape's most 
probably snarky advice here because he thinks Dumbledore put him up 
to it?  *IF* James is not aware that Snape is a DE (I think he might 
at least suspect based on what he already knows of Snape from school) 
he might think this is another case of Dumbledore interfering.  Not 
wedded to this, not even holding hands.  But your scenario as 
described brought it to mind as an extension of James 
being 'arrogant' - Snape could see him as being grossly arrogant by 
rejecting Dumbledore's wisdom?  While on James's side, he might 
wonder why Dumbledore told Snape anything at all.

Carol:
> Anyway, the only canon we have is that James rejected DD's offer to 
be
> SK and chose Black instead; that Snape says he warned James against
> Black and was "arrogantly" rejected; that Black, not James, 
suggested
> the switch to Pettigrew; that Black as late as GoF did not know that
> Snape had been a DE (or that he was spying on the DEs for Dumbledore
> at the time of the SK switch); and that Snape as of the Shrieking
> Shack scene in PoA believed that Pettigrew was dead and that Black
> betrayed the Potters. All of this information is based on the word 
of
> the characters involved (Snape, Black, and DD) but there's no reason
> (other than an assumption of ESE!Snape) to think that they're lying.

Ceridwen:
I don't think any of them are lying.  I think they're all 
representing events as they know they happened.  I don't think we 
know everything, though we certainly know more about this after 
putting it together than we know about the Prank.  Things I wonder 
about: Why did James and Lily reject Dumbledore as SK?  Why did James 
think Snape came to him with advice?  And in this discussion 
specifically, did James mention to Sirius that Snape came to him at 
all about it, with or without mentioning specifics?  Was Lily an 
active participant in the decision, or did she leave it up to James?  
And as PJ brought up, whether or not it was valid from any other POV, 
does Snape wonder now if James actually did take his advice?

Carol:
> Whether Snape's advice backfired or not, I can't see "the assumption
> that the SK was DE common knowledge" being the reason offered for 
the
> SK change. Voldie wouldn't even have known about it unless the 
traitor
> had told him, and as secretive as he is, he certainly wouldn't have
> announced something that hadn't happened yet to his DEs. 

Ceridwen:
I think it would have been a reasonable assumption, if James and Lily 
knew that LV knew about the prophecy, that LV might expect a magical 
hiding charm to be placed.  In RL, we can reasonably assume that 
people will protect themselves in accordance with the danger they 
believe themselves to be in.  There are bars on windows and security 
screens on doors in neighborhoods with frequent break-ins, for 
instance.  And electronic protection devices for break-ins and fires 
are doing well enough to advertise on TV.  There's no reason to think 
that witches and wizards won't protect themselves with the 
appropriate magical spells when they deem themselves in danger.  
Living in that world, LV would expect some sort of magical 
protection, and what better one than this, where only one person in 
the world is capable of betraying the secret?

Carol:
> More
> important, Snape would not have gone to the Potters and said, "I'm a
> DE, but I'm really working for Dumbledore, so I'm warning you that
> Voldemort knows about your Secret Keeper plan." What he warned James
> Potter against was a traitor who was leaking information on the
> Potters to LV, a traitor he believed to be Sirius Black, but he 
would
> certainly have used Dumbledore, not Voldemort, as the source of his
> information.

Ceridwen:
My first mental image here is Snape staring sincerely into the camera 
and saying, "I'm not really a Death Eater, but I play one on TV..."

Again, why would Dumbledore be discussing Order business with Snape?  
As far as we know, in VWI, Snape is not a member of the Order.  And 
while it's possible that they could divine that there is a spy 
because of things that happen which shouldn't have happened, there's 
just as much to suggest that they know there's a spy for their side 
in LV's camp and this person has told Dumbledore that LV is getting 
info from an unknown Order traitor.  Suspicion plus verification from 
their own spy = almost certain knowledge.

Carol:
> Another point, too--Snape at this point was already teaching Potions
> at Hogwarts, so his source of info would have to be DD, not LV. But
> Black didn't know that Snape was at Hogwarts until the Shrieking 
Shack
> scene, again suggesting that he wasn't present when Snape informed 
JP
> that one of his friends was a traitor and that he believed the 
traitor
> to be Sirius Black. IMO, this bit of information from his childhood
> enemy would have had the opposite effect--it would have confirmed 
him
> in his wish to make SB the Secret Keeper (and confirmed Snape in his
> belief that that was the case). It was Black, not Snape, who talked
> the Potters into changing SKs.

Ceridwen:
So, Snape comes to James with the (ridiculous, to James) idea that 
Sirius was betraying the Potters.  Then Sirius comes to James with 
the idea that everyone would believe that he was the Potter's SK so 
they should switch SKs.  Why wouldn't James think to himself that 
Snape already proved Sirius's point?  And, if no one knew that the 
Potters were going to have a SK, why would Sirius make that point at 
all?

> Carol, still not sure whether Snape knew about the SK plan or only
> that a traitor was leaking info on the Potters to LV

Ceridwen:
That would, to me, make the only difference.  But in light of Sirius 
making the point to James, and perhaps Lily, that everyone would 
expect Sirius to be the SK, I have tended to think that the plot to 
hide the Potters wasn't such a huge secret, or at least that it 
wasn't outside of the realm of their enemies' speculation.

Ceridwen.