School Size/Class Size was Re: Scary Teachers - Good Teachers

[Steve]

No: HPFGUIDX 152978

--- In HPforGrownups at yahoogroups.com, "Shaun Hately" <drednort at ...> wrote:
>
> On 26 May 2006 at 16:31, ClareWashbrook at ... wrote:
> 
> >  
> > Potioncat:
> > 
> > I think  we have to use 40 as a base. No  matter how many 
> > students JKR may indicate  is in Harry's class, she 
> > only created 40. 
> > 
> > 
> > Clare:
> >  
> > Actually JKR said that she only created 40 "with backgrounds"!
> > She  never  stated that 40 was the limit of the intake.  
> 
> Shaun:
> ... Personally I think 40 students a year for Harry's year is 
> credible, because that figure can be supported  based on internal
> information in the books. And it's not just because we only see 
> 40 characters with backgrounds - we do have real indications 
> that's there's how many students there are.
> 
> The following is now a bit out of date - I haven't updated it yet
> to look at the last two books. But it illustrates the point I am 
> making:
> 
> Evidence for number of pupils at Hogwarts School of Witchcraft and 
> Wizardry.
> 
> Assumptions:
> 
> (1) Each house has at least approximately the same number of pupils
> (2) Each year has at least approximately the same number of pupils
> (3) There is an approximately equal gender balance at pupils
> 
> From these it follows that, at least in general terms, each 
> year/house/gender grouping will have approximately the same 
> number of pupils.
> 
> All page numbers relate to British Bloomsbury editions.
> 
> ...edited quote indicating Class Size...
> 

bboyminn:

But here is where you are likely mistaken.

(1) Each House is probably NOT that same size.
(2) Each Year is NOT likely to be the same size.
(3) OK, I'll give you this one, gender balance is about equal, but
only because the balance of the general UK population is about equal.

Perhaps you are biased by having gone to private (in the USA sense)
schools that strictly control their enrollment, so they do control the
size of House, years, and classes. They control it by limiting enrollment.

However, in the USA, Public School Districts take all the student who
are available in their district. In this case, class and year size can
vary greatly. Sizes shift with the economy, they shift with the birth
rate, and other factors come into play.

Admittedly, I went to a very small school, but our class sizes varied
from 15 to 30 with 20 to 25 being about average.

Hogwarts, while it models a private (USA sense) school in the British
Boarding School tradition, it does not appear to restrict its
enrollment. It is open to every available student in the wizard and
muggle-born world. Logically, the various social factors affect the
number of available students in any given year, and certainly House
size will ebb and flow over time. 

Next, look at the House personality characteristics. Just guessing,
but I would expect Hufflepuff to be the largest, Ravenclaw to be next,
followed by a nearly tied Slytherin and Gryffindor. 

> Shaun continues:
>
> Yes, in interviews, JKR has said the school is larger that this - 
> but she's given at least two sizes I have heard of - 1000 and 600. 
> Her interviews haven't even been consistent on this point. In simple 
> terms, JKR really doesn't seem to pay an awful lot of attention to 
> numbers.
> 
> ...edited...
> 
> And the books do seem to me to point to 40 per year for a total 
> school size of 280.
> 
> ...edited...
> 
> Yours Without Wax, Dreadnought
> Shaun Hately 

bboyminn:

JKR has already admitted that the numbers never will add up. Since we
know the numbers are flawed, the best we can do is come up with
speculative estimations that attempt to explain away the obvious
discrepancies.

First, I explain the 1,000 number by saying that that is the capacity
of the school, not the current enrollment. We have plenty of examples
from the books indicating that portions of Hogwarts are not currently
in use. So, logically, Hogwarts is not at full enrollment.

The 280 number you calculated is definitely flawed, and serves as
nothing more than a vague and general estimate. We do have the
evidence you gave that Harry's class year can be determined to some
extent, but we have no evidence that Harry's class size is typical of
the rest of the class years. In fact, I suspect it is on the small side.

If we make some reasonable assumptions of variations in year size and
House size, it is possible to expand the numbers to roughly 400 to
600, and that's not far from JKR estimate. Since we know from the
start that the numbers are flawed, I think that is as close as the
numbers will ever be. 

I also suspect when JKR says 600 students, it is 600 by IMPRESSION,
not by count or by hard evidence. The school /seems/ to have about 600
students in it whether those number are varifiable or not. 

Another set of numbers that will never add up is the number of
students extrapolated out into the total UK wizard world population.
We have an IMPRESSION of the wizard world; the number of shops, the
size of government, the extent of general commerce, newpapers,
magazines, and other factors that establish a mental image of the
wizard world. 

However, that mental impression of the wizard world doesn't square
with the number of students. The wizard world seems far to big and
complex to only yeild that small number of students. In that past, I
have estimated the wizard world at 50,000 to 100,000 which is a very
small precentage of the total UK population of 60 million. Yet, JKR
says there is something in the order of 5,000 to 6,000 wizards and
witches in the UK. 

For the record, the muggle birth rate is approx. 10 births per 1,000
population. Which would mean producing roughly 50 to 60 wizardly
children per year. Which, of course, does not add up.

So, I flatly do not accept the 280 figure as accurate. Beyond that, I
don't think any count will ever be right because JKR based the size of
Hogwart on impressions not numbers.

For what it's worth.

Steve/bboyminn