School Size/Class Size was Re: Scary Teachers - Good Teachers

[Neri]

No: HPFGUIDX 152986

> 
> Steve/bboyminn wrote:
><snipped> 
> However, that mental impression of the wizard world doesn't square
> with the number of students. The wizard world seems far to big and
> complex to only yeild that small number of students. In that past, I
> have estimated the wizard world at 50,000 to 100,000 which is a very
> small precentage of the total UK population of 60 million. Yet, JKR
> says there is something in the order of 5,000 to 6,000 wizards and
> witches in the UK. 
> 
> For the record, the muggle birth rate is approx. 10 births per 1,000
> population. Which would mean producing roughly 50 to 60 wizardly
> children per year. Which, of course, does not add up.
> 

Neri:
Actually it does. 10 births per year per 1000 population assumes that
married couples are formed *within* the population. However, for a
half-blood child, only one of his parents belongs to the Wizarding
population. If all wizard children were half-bloods (in the strict
sense of one wizard parent and one muggle parent) you could get as
much as 20 births per 1000 wizard population, but of course we know
that some aren't half-blood so 15 sounds about right.

But then we arrive at the biggest unknown, which is the number of
muggle-born. They come from outside the wizard community so their
number is completely independent of the wizard population size.
Moreover, since the reasons for the birth of a wizard child to a
muggle family are shred in mystery and probably adhere to the rules of
magic as well as RL, there can be great fluctuations from year to
year. Thus we would be perfectly within our rights too add each year
any number of muggle-born that are needed to get the *right* number of
students. I hope this helps <g>. 

> Steve:
> So, I flatly do not accept the 280 figure as accurate. Beyond that, I
> don't think any count will ever be right because JKR based the size of
> Hogwart on impressions not numbers.
> 

Neri:
I fully agree. My strong impression during all the books is that there
are much more than 280. Just one example out of many: Harry doesn't
know *both* seventh-years Gryffindors Belby and McLaggan when Slughorn
introduces them in HBP, and they must have been in Gryffindor house
through the five years of Harry being there. I flatly refuse to
believe he doesn't know them after five years if there are only 10
Gryffs in his year and about another 10 in the year above him.

Neri