Dumbledore Does Lie (Re: What turned Snape)

[Mike]

No: HPFGUIDX 159027

--- In HPforGrownups at yahoogroups.com, "dumbledore11214" wrote:
> 
> Alla:
> 
> Um, Levicorpus is also HBP's spell and as Lupin says half of the
> school was using it at some point. I see no reason why Snape would
> not have done it in public once and some saw it and adopted it and
> somehow it reached DUmbledore or Aberworth or both. But
> of course it is just speculation.

Mike:
Well, Alla, we're all speculating. ;-)
But from what we know of Aberforth, does he appear to you to be 
someone who would have picked up an insignificant, recent student 
manufactured spell that was, in your own speculation, probably only 
known by a few wizards at the most? Does Aberforth seem to you to be 
someone *in tune* with current trends, someone that would pick up on 
a prank spell recently released (if it was) out into the WW? This 
seems so much less likely to the point of making it unbelievable. 
Still, read on, I have more on both.


> > Mike previously:
> > Neither do I believe Aberforth catching Snape part way in and 
> > causing him to not hear the rest (but waiting until  
> > Trelawney finishes before he throws him into the room)
> > would allow DD to state definitively that Snape didn't hear 
> > the rest of the prophesy.
> 
> Alla:
> 
> Again, why not if Albus talked to Aberworth afterwards and he told
> him exactly how much Snape heard?

Mike now:
But if Snape is still around after Sibyll finishes the prophesy, how 
would either Aberforth or Albus be able to say definitively at what 
time Snape was stopped from hearing the prophesy? There is a  
sequencing problem here. Aberforth is not listening to the prophesy, 
he doesn't know how far into it Sibyll is. Albus is inside the room, 
he didn't catch Snape, he can't know at what point Aberforth showed 
up. This scenario and 'muffliato' have the same time line problem, 
to wit: how far into the prophesy was Snape's eavesdropping 
interrupted? Remember, the very next line of the prophesy was 
the "powers the dark lord knows not", and this is the specific line 
that DD tells Harry that LV didn't get wind of. Not knowing this 
line is the reason LV didn't wait to see which of them (Harry or 
Neville) looked more dangerous, according to DD's explanation to 
Harry.

Both of these alternate scenarios still have the same problem. Albus 
told us that the eavesdropper was caught part way into the prophesy 
and expelled from the building. If it had happened this way, Sibyll 
wouldn't have even known there was an eavesdropper, much less that 
it was Snape. Instead Snape is still around at the end of the 
prophesy. Either Snape actually heard the whole prophesy (or more 
than DD can be sure of), or he heard none of it (Snape and Aberforth 
enter the room after being summoned by Albus, as in firing off his 
*message patronus* to the two of them who are downstairs in the bar 
at the time). 

But neither of these scenarios match Albus Dumbledore's carefully 
thought out scenario/story that he told Harry in OotP. That's the 
problem. DD's story in OotP *does not* match the further information 
we received in HBP. And if Albus Dumbledore is caught in a 
prevarication it must have been for a darned good reason. And 
remember, the lie is not *who* the eavesdropper is. The lie is 
*what* the eavesdropper heard.

 
> Alla:
> 
> I would not put anything past Dumbledore recently, but I am going 
> to still hoping that what you describe is not what happened :-)
> 
> Sorry, Mike, but Dumbledore who deliberately puts under the threat
> of possible death **unknown** couple and their baby for **any**
> purpose, including placing Snape in Voldemort's inner circle is no
> different than Voldemort to me. IMHO of course.
> <snip>

Mike:
I understasnd how you feel Alla. My take on it is that DD was taking 
a chance, yeah, but he also couldn't know that it would result in 
two deaths. He maybe realized he was putting unknown people in 
danger but thought he could prevent any damage and capture LV in the 
bargain. I dunno what his plan was or if he had a plan at all. This 
would have been a spur of the moment decision, he would have to send 
Snape to LV right away. He probably didn't have time to consider all 
of the ramifications before making his decision.


> Alla cont.:
> And besides that would dissipate one of the major things Harry 
> has to forgive Snape for IMO - contributing to his parents death.

Mike:
Yep, but an even bigger BANG. Albus did it!! Besides, Snape was 
still complicit in the prophesy release. He can't claim ignorance. 
And Harry still blames him, so the motivation to track down Snape 
will still be there until Harry learns the whole story.



> Alla, who hopes that the events in HH went exactly like Dumbledore
> described.
> 
> ETA:
> 
> Just had a thought. If this is what happened and Dumbledore was 
> concerned with putting Snape in, etc, but did not really want 
> Potters and their child to die, I can see him offering to be their 
> secret keeper out of the sense of guilt first and foremost. I can 
> also see James learning about it and telling him something along  
> the lines - you hypocritical bastard, you put us and our son in 
> danger in the first place and now you are offering to be our 
> secret keeper?
> 
> Go jump in the lake or something like that. That would be a 
> perfect reason for Potters to refuse DD offer as far as I am 
> concerned and I would have refused that too, but as I said, I am  
> hoping that this scenario did not happen.

Mike:
I hadn't thought of this, excellent!! This ties up another loose 
thread. Thanks Alla, you may be hoping that this isn't the real 
story but you just gave it another point in it's favor. :-D