The Statute of Secrecy -Strategic Management

[Steve]

No: HPFGUIDX 159142

---  "dumbledore11214" <dumbledore11214 at ...> wrote:
>
> > > a_svirn:
> > However, the blood projection thing, or, say, that
> > wonderful Voldemort-baiting plan in OOP was another
> > matter entirely. Here Dumbledore again didn't share
> > his plans and intentions with other phoenixes, and he
> > didn't have the same excuse as with Snape.<snip>
> > 
> > Mike:
> > What canon support do you have for this assertion? 
> > There is none AKAIK and it appears that DD has very 
> > much shared his plans with the Order. They are 
> > guarding the DoM entrances and I'm sure DD has told 
> > them why they are doing this. BTW, all of the Order
> > members sure seem to know what's going on re the 
> > after dinner talk at 12 GP in Ch six of OotP. They 
> > are trying awfully hard to fill Harry in without 
> > saying too much.

> 
> Alla:
> 
> ...
> 
> I thought she was not suggesting that other members of
> the Orders did not know about Prophecy involving Harry,
> I also think that this bit of information was known, 
> but I am not quite sure actually whether it was thanks
> to Dumbledore.
> 
> I have a suspicion that as close friend of Potters 
> Sirius knew that and shared. Now, this is nothing more
> than a speculation and it is entirely possible that 
> Dumbledore chose to share this one, but for some reason
> it seems plausible to me.
> 
> But I thought that what a_svirn was saying is that 
> Dumbledore did not share with anybody the reasons why 
> Dumbledore was avoiding Harry all summer and why he 
> decided that Harry needs to study Occlumency, so if you
> have canon support to the contrary, could you please 
> refer me to it? 
> 
>  

bboyminn:

I think this brings us back to my 'Need to Know' idea. 
Keep mind that 'Need to Know' is not a social or 
psychological need to know, but a strategic need to know. 

Let's start with the Prophecy. Dumbledore tells Harry that
it is OK to tell Ron and Hermione about the Prophecy, but
does Harry do that? Does it happen 'on screen', is it 
implied as happening in the background? From what I read
Harry doesn't tell them THE PROPHECY, that is, he doesn't
quote it, he explains it to them, and he seems to think
that that is sufficient. He tell them what he thinks
they 'need to know'. Now he certainly may be wrong in 
that choice. I fully expect Hermione at some critical 
point to force Harry to quote the Prophecy word-for-word
to the best of his ability to recall. At some point,
word-for-word may indeed be strategically critical. 

I suspect Dumbledore /explains/ the Prophecy to a lot of
people, people who have a /strategic/ need to know, and 
he explains it to a degree and in a level of detail in
proportion to his preceived sense of their degree of 
'need to know'. But, so far, he hasn't quoted the 
Prophecy to anyone but Harry. That is just wise strategic
management, which is quite different from withholding 
information.

I'm sure many people /want/ to know, I'm sure many people
think they need to know, but, for Dumbledore, that is 
part of the burden of leadership. He must decide just
who knows what, how much of 'what' they know, and just
when they are allowed to know it. This isn't Dumbledore
being a social jerk; this is Dumbledore making strategic
decisions that have far greater importance and impact 
than any person's /desire/ to know.

Sure, Dumbledore could tell the Ministry LITERALLY 
everything and thereby releave himself of the whole 
responsibility, dropping it all in the Ministry's lap and
letting them deal with it. But we have consistently seen
that the Ministry, like most governments, are a load of
glory seeking, people pacifying, image conscious bunglers.
Who do you have greater trust in when it comes to making
sound strategic decisions regarding Harry, Dumbledore or
the Ministry? Personally, as flawed as he is, I take 
Dumbledore over anyone and everyone.

I think somewhere in this thread mentioned the example of 
'Occlumency' regarding whether Dumbledore had bothered to
explain the why's and wherefore's of the existance and 
need for Harry to learn Occlumency. Someone asked for a 
quote, well I don't have a quote handy, but I think I 
have a scene that will be sufficiently recognisable that
a quote won't be needed.

When Harry uses Umbridges fire to talk to Remus and 
Sirius about what he, Harry, had seen in Snape's Penseive
Memory, they react very strongly when Harry tells them 
that Snape has stopped giving him Occlumency lessons. 
They react so strong, and equally strongly tell Harry to
go back to Snape and tell him that under no circumstances
is he to stop the Occlumency lessons. They seem to 
understand the urgent need for these lessons. They seem 
to understand the need and have a sense of urgency that 
strongly implies that Dumbledore has explained the 
situation to them. Dumbledore may not have explained every
minute detail to them, but he explained it enough to 
impress on them the urgency and necessity of these 
lessons.

As I said before, in life, in business, and in strategic
situations, the leader is under no obligation to explain
everything to everyone. He decide what to tell whom and 
when, and he does so out of stragegic necessity. Yes, 
socially and psychologically, lots and lots of people
want to know, and even think they should know, but it is
up to the leader to made that decision. Dumbledore may 
get it right, but he may also get it wrong (as we have 
seen) but being the leader means that the full weight and
responsibility for his choices falls squarely on his 
shoulders. If Harry wins, Dumbledore gets some credit for
having chosen wisely; if Harry dies, then Dumbledore 
shoulders a substantial burden of blame for his own 
strategic failures. That is true of all great leaders. 

So, my point is that it is clear that Dumbledore does
explains some things to some people, and he does explain
some things to all people, but he is selective, as any
great leader must be, in only telling people what he has 
deemed they need to know in that moment. Sometimes he is
right, and sometimes that choice is wrong, but the burden
of choice does fall on him.



> 
> Alla:
> 
> Oh, I don't know. I had a rather strong feeling for 
> example that Lupin was feeling pretty bitter that he
> was to go to werewolves. That Sirius would really 
> really prefer to tell Harry what was going on .... That
> Sirius would really really prefer to fight instead of 
> being locked in the House where he escaped from in his
> youth and which gave him an awfully big depression, if
> you ask me.
> 
> ...
> 

bboyminn:

But doesn't every solder feel pretty bitter about being
used as cannon fodder by generals who are sipping tea back
at their nice safe headquarters and moving toy soldier 
and tanks around on a map with little /apparent/ concern
for the fact that real men are wasting their lives? 

Yet, they go and they do. They go where they are told to
go and they do their duty, and they hope and pray that 
there is some greater good to it all. Sometimes the 
Generals are right, sometimes the Generals are wrong, but
either way, the Generals are almost always safe.

No Lupin did not like going and living amoung the very
aspect of Werewolves that he had been trying to escape 
his whole life. But he knew there was a strategic 
importance and, as much as he didn't like it, he did his
duty just like every other soldier who is asked to serve.

Regardless of whether Lupin is literally a soldier or 
not, he has none the less given himself up to the greater
good. He has voluntarily put himself at Dumbledore's 
command, and as a secondary aspect of that, he knows he 
has given himself up to the protection and support of 
Harry. He does this willingly, and having done so has
accepted that as functional commander and chief, he must
trust that Dumbledore knows what he is doing to the
extent that is humanly possible, and that Dumbledore may
be making his strategic decisions on information that is
not currently available to Lupin or other volunteers. 
That is all part of the price that is paid for being a 
player in this dark and dangerous game.

While not on the same page, I think this position puts me
in close accord with Alla.

For what it's worth.

Steve/bboyminn