Draco and Dumbledore WAS: Re: Dumbledore Does Lie - Sort Of

[justcarol67]

No: HPFGUIDX 159740

Magpie wrote:
<snip>
> Since what Draco was really doing was bringing DEs, a guard outside
the room would have just seen them that much earlier.  Hindsight's
always 20/20 and I can't say just how different everything would have
been this way--DD *did* have guards in the castle anyway who fought
the DEs who came through. But I do think that that final discussion
between Harry and Dumbledore is about driving home the fact that
Dumbledore is making the mistake of thinking he knows more than Harry
so that there's no chance of forgetting on the Tower that the very
thing Harry had been focused on was the very thing that made a
difference and that Dumbledore did not want to hear or consider.

Carol responds:
I'm not so sure. As I stated earlier, if Harry had told Dumbledore
about Draco throwing out Trelawney, or allowed her to speak for
herself about the incident, Dumbledore might have realized that the
danger was now acute and placed a watch on the RoR. The events on the
tower might have been averted, not by a direct confrontation between
DD and Draco (which might have activated the UV and killed Snape) but
by placing guards outside the RoR, which he might then have realized
was the DEs' route into the castle. (How else to explain the whoop and
throwing out Trelawney? He knows that Draco is trying to kill him and,
through Snape, that Draco has some sort of "better" backup than Crabbe
and Goyle, which can only mean DEs.) Even with the Peruvian Darkness
Powder, the Order could have blocked or at least encumbered the DEs,
preventing them from getting to the Tower. (Draco, holding the Hand of
Glory, was the only one who could see.) Or he might have chosen to
leave the castle undetected rather than pretending to visit a publ
(DD, we know, has ways of becoming invisible.) 

But Harry, focused on his rage at Snape as the eavesdropper, forgets
to mention that Draco has thrown Trelawney out of the RoR, a missed
opportunity like so many others in the books. (Why does Harry always
forget crucial details like that room beneath the Malfoys' drawing
room? Oh, yeah. So they can come out later, presumably in Book 7, or
so that events will happen the way JKR wants them to. Sigh.) As it is,
what might have worked out well (no DE invasion or a thwarted one) is
averted by an interruption, a new piece of information that disrupts
the previous plan. Harry and DD go after the (fake) Horcrux and the
DEs get into the castle, unhindered by the two kids watching the door
of the RoR.

Something similar happens after Harry and DD return from the cave:
Harry would have gone, however reluctantly, to fetch Snape if Madam
Rosmerta hadn't shown up to point out the Dark Mark over the castle,
presumably under Draco's orders. Since Snape saved DD from the ring
Horcrux curse and since he has prodigious healing skills (previously
unrecognized by Harry and therefore not presented to the reader by the
narrator), it's possible that he might have saved Dumbledore again
(though probably he couldn't have restored him to full health and
strength), but that event is averted by Rosmerta's revelation and by
Dumbledore's decision to fly (with the invisible Harry) to the tower.

At that point Dumbledore knows that Draco is plotting to kill him and
he must realize that Draco has succeeded against all odds in getting
DEs into the castle (there's no other explanation for the Dark Mark),
yet he *chooses*, even in his weakened state, to go to the Astronomy
Tower, where he almost certainly expects to encounter Draco. Why? He
now knows that Harry was right about Draco being up to something
dangerous in the RoR and that he has succeeded in doing what he's been
trying to do all year. Perhaps Dumbledore knew that all along and it
made no difference to his plans. He did, after all, have Order members
on guard duty in Hogwarts that night. He did make sure that Snape was
not among them, perhaps to make sure that the DEs didn't suspect his
true loyalties if they succeeded in entering Hogwarts.

IMO, he insisted on finding the Horcrux (which, of course, he thought
was real) that very night rather than staying in the castle because he
knew that he might have no other opportunity. He knew that Draco might
succeed. He suspected, apparently, that he might die that night,
perhaps from the protections on the Horcrux (see his instructions to
Harry), perhaps from Draco's plan or the activated UV.

But why did he go up to the tower? Between the whoop (and what he
already knew from Snape of Draco's mission), the previous murder
attempts traced to Draco, the UV, the curse on the DADA position, his
own weakened state because of the ring curse and the poisoned memory
(or whatever the green stuff was), he must have knowhat this would be
his last night on earth if he went up to the tower. Why, then, did he
go there? Did he know that he had to die and that Snape, and only
Snape, had to kill him?

I'm not sure, but I think that he knew perfectly well what was likely
to happen. He didn't listen to Harry because he knew that they had to
go after the Horcrux that night. The next time he left the castle
would be his last.

Carol, not blaming Harry but also not blaming Dumbledore or Snape for
 what DD himself seems to regard as his inevitable fate