[HPforGrownups] Draco and Dumbledore WAS: Re: Dumbledore Does Lie - Sort Of

[Magpie]

No: HPFGUIDX 159755

> Carol responds:
> I'm not so sure. As I stated earlier, if Harry had told Dumbledore
> about Draco throwing out Trelawney, or allowed her to speak for
> herself about the incident, Dumbledore might have realized that the
> danger was now acute and placed a watch on the RoR.

Magpie:
I guess that's the thing I don't quite see--why would Draco's throwing 
Trelawney out be so important?  He doesn't want her there, doesn't want her 
to see what he's doing--I don't quite see how that changes things so much 
from Harry's report that whatever Draco's been trying to do, he's done.  It 
seems to me he might have thrown Trelawney out just the same had she 
wandered in there in March as this night.

But that's not meant to say that I don't think Harry's anger at Snape is a 
distraction.  Harry isn't making a really reasonable argument for Dumbledore 
checking the place. Just as I think that final conversation before they 
leave is setting up that Dumbledore has a plan with Draco he's sticking to 
(a plan we finally see on the Tower) I think it's also solidifying Harry's 
anger at Snape taking precedence over everything for him.

You also bring up another thing that really interests me here:

Carol:
 (Why does Harry always
> forget crucial details like that room beneath the Malfoys' drawing
> room? Oh, yeah. So they can come out later, presumably in Book 7, or
> so that events will happen the way JKR wants them to. Sigh.)

Magpie:
This is one of those things where I'm honestly not sure what we're supposed 
to think happened. For instance, in CoS we specifically see Draco *not* 
being given the Hand of Glory, but later JKR refers to him having one, and 
in Book Six Ron mentions him as having one as if we know he's got it.  In 
CoS I believe it's Ron who announces his intention to tell his father about 
the secret place under the Malfoy's floor--but did he?  I'm honestly not 
sure if I'm supposed to think that Ron forgot and so each time we've heard 
about the Manor being searched they didn't search the secret compartment (so 
both Ron and Harry keep forgetting to bring it up or have forgotten it 
themselves--not entirely impossible since Hermione was not with them in the 
CoS common room).  But maybe I'm supposed to assume that Ron has told Arthur 
and that his statement of his intention to do so should means I should 
assume that's exactly what he did.  Is Draco's mentioning it a throwaway 
"haha they got something on him there" moment or an important piece of 
information dropped in, mentioned once more, and then forgotten?

Carol:
> At that point Dumbledore knows that Draco is plotting to kill him and
> he must realize that Draco has succeeded against all odds in getting
> DEs into the castle (there's no other explanation for the Dark Mark),
> yet he *chooses*, even in his weakened state, to go to the Astronomy
> Tower, where he almost certainly expects to encounter Draco. Why? He
> now knows that Harry was right about Draco being up to something
> dangerous in the RoR and that he has succeeded in doing what he's been
> trying to do all year. Perhaps Dumbledore knew that all along and it
> made no difference to his plans. He did, after all, have Order members
> on guard duty in Hogwarts that night. He did make sure that Snape was
> not among them, perhaps to make sure that the DEs didn't suspect his
> true loyalties if they succeeded in entering Hogwarts.

Magpie:
That's true--as I said I don't think we can honestly say that things would 
have been *so* different if DD had listened to Harry since he did leave a 
guard behind regardless.  It's not like Harry has a clue that what Draco is 
trying to do is get DEs into the castle.  He could have been doing anything 
in there. Dumbledore intends to leave and get the Hogwarts that night so 
he's not going to stay and deal with Draco instead. (And ultimately perhaps 
if they hadn't done that Harry would never have gotten the fake Horcrux, 
which will lead to the real one--or wouldn't have had DD to help him.)

<snipping>

Carol:
> I'm not sure, but I think that he knew perfectly well what was likely
> to happen. He didn't listen to Harry because he knew that they had to
> go after the Horcrux that night. The next time he left the castle
> would be his last.
>
> Carol, not blaming Harry but also not blaming Dumbledore or Snape for
> what DD himself seems to regard as his inevitable fate

Magpie:
Yes, that's pretty much how I read it.  The DEs breaking through the school 
defenses is a surprise to Dumbledore, but I don't think one that's such a 
surprise that he doesn't know how to respond to it--or Snape doesn't (by the 
time he gets to the Tower he Snape seems to know what's got to be done, imo, 
as does Dumbledore).  In general I think that everything that happened that 
night, including the mistakes, will wind up helping the good guys.  That is, 
everything but Dumbledore's death.  I doubt that's going to be a "for the 
best" thing except for in a meta way.  But the Horcrux being a fake, Snape 
killing Dumbledore or the Malfoys not being taken into protective custody 
that night might not be be bad things.

-m