The Plan--Long (was: HBP theories...

[Talisman]

No: HPFGUIDX 159930

N.B.I deleted the earlier version of this post (#159920)as one 
section was found to be out of order, hindering comprehension. 

For those who received a copy of the first post, I reccomend this 
slightly revised version.

 
--- In HPforGrownups at yahoogroups.com, 
"Eddie" <harryp at ...> wrote:
> > brothergib:
> On finding out from Flitwick that DE's have invaded the
>castle, Snape  runs straight for the tower, without even
>stopping to consider the  battle raging within Hogwarts.

Talisman:
Yep.

Eddie
Message #159845
>Remember that we don't actually know WHAT Flitwick told Snape:

Talisman:
I think we *do* know what Flitwick said: pretty much what you noted
in your post.

Heremione reported the relevant information, up to and including
the "thunk" when he hit the ground.

IMO, the evidence is against Flitwick even knowing what was
happening on the tower, let alone communicating that to Snape. (see
below)

If Rowling meant to portray Flitwick as a source of tower info, she
screwed up repeatedly. I wouldn't count on it.

Eddie, cont:
>I'm wondering why would Snape, upon seeing the battle, not join in?
>Why would Snape even think that he should go up ONTO the top of the
>tower? I may be wrong, but I don't recall any evidence that was
>available/visible to Snape to indicate that the top of the tower was
>important in any way.

Talisman:
You are not wrong Eddie. There is *no* evidence that Snape could
know what was transpiring on the ramparts, save all the evidence
that there is a plan, in which he is a major player.

Eddie, cont:
>So, all these questions push me into the "Snape knew something
>beforehand" camp. Just what, I'm uncertain.

Talisman:
He knew it all, Eddie. Or at least everything that has to do with
DD's death, Draco, Harry and Voldemort. I'll allow the
*possibility* that DD works his choreography in Snape's life, as
well, but Snape has been his lieutenant throughout the series and is
now carrying the ball into the critical denouement. There isn't
*much* Snape doesn't know.


bboyminn:
Message #159470
>In general I don't have a problem with Snape and
>Dumbledore having a plan, but I am very uneasy with the
>idea that the plan was as specific as 'Dumbledore made
>Snape agree to kill him when DE's entered the castle'.
>That strikes me as a very narrow plan in such an anything
>can happen wide open war.

Talisman:
Sorry bboy, I couldn't disagree more DD is great at precision
planning. In this light, it is not an "anything can happen" war.
DD has been controlling events all along, and you can bet he set his
final dominoes in place, before he popped off the tower.

Anticipating reactions, and setting things up in advance to induce
the behavior he wants, is DD's modus operandi, throughout the series.

He is the author of both Prophecies, after all. He set things in
motion.

He knew Wormtail was the spy. How could he not?

He purposed GH.

James left the IC to Harry and Lily didn't even raise her wand
because they understood their respective roles in the plan--which
necessitated their deaths.

(Note how Order members have a habit of sacrificing their lives.)

Most readers cottoned-on to the fact that the Philosopher's stone
was basically bait, and that DD contrived to put Harry in
Voldemort's way in Book 1.

Sure, Harry got some testing/validation and a introduction to LV
that helped make things personal, but the big set-up was Qmort's
experience with the touch-me-not skin protection (before LV was put
back on ice for a few years).

(P.S. You don't think DD's DADA prof. du jour was just tripping
through Albania by chance, do you? Even Voldemort finds it too
good to be true. ::cough::)

DD understood the reaction to Harry's rebuff of Draco and coalition
with Hagrid and himself. Was Book 2 totally Lucius's idea? I look
to double agent Snape as DD's provocateur.

A Parseltongue himself (as we learned in HBP), DD delegated Snape to
*out* Harry in the dueling lessons. You don't think Snape just
volunteered to be pathetic Lockhart's *assistant,* do you? Nah, you
know better.

And, how lucky little Draco knew that Serpentsorsia spell, eh?

By this, DD not only enabled Harry to utilize his rare talent, but
put him under suspicion, making the resolution of affairs personal.

We know DD can see through ICs, and his winking clues to Harry in
Hagrid's hut only confirm his desire that Harry end up in the
Chamber.

So, Harry learns a lot, destroys a HX, and the whole imprudent thing
sets Lucius up to be in hot water when Voldemort gets back.

Then DD allows Harry to free Dobby and piss Lucius into a state of
personal vendetta at the end of COS.

>From the bad guy side, PoA was a plot to suck Harry (seems dangerous
to attack him outright--let`s use the dementors!)

Yeah, Harry was supposed to look like collateral damage, but he was
actually the prime target.

You can see this in the fact that the dementors only attack when
Sirius and Harry are in close proximity--and then they always go for
Harry first. Just following orders.

I know I've set this out in posts, years ago. Some of it, at least,
in the old *Crying Wolf* thread.

For DD's part, Book 3 adventures accomplished, among other things,
the two major goals of reuniting Harry and Sirius (in a controlled
way) and sending Wormtail back for Voldie.

Yes, DD allowed Sirius to rot in prison, and he played a role in
Sirius's release.
Perhaps just Snape's suggestion in Lucius's ear, but he instigated
it, nonetheless.

DD used Sirius (by reuniting him with Harry in Book 3, keeping him
at arm's distance throughout 4, and a lot of 5, and killing him in
Book 5) to activate the Love/Loss emotions that repelled Voldemort
in the atrium. See Guilty!DD # 66983, et seq.

Back to Book 4. Due to the skin-burning experience in SS/PS (as
explained by Wormtail en route to Chez Riddle), and the earlier loss
of the stone, Voldemort has to settle for the *ancient magic* body
he works out in GoF.

DD knows all about that ancient magic. He knows what LV needs, and
so, where he'll go. DD (who owns Riddle Manor) monitors Wormtail &
Co.'s return, and understands entirely that Voldie is bent on having
Harry's blood (thanks to the burn). DD not only wants LV back (sent
Wormtail to fetch him, didn`t he?) but he wants LV to use Harry's
blood as well (gleam).

Par usual, DD guides the baddies' schemes, and then co-opts them to
his own ends.

They are always working for him, they just don't know it. How's
that for a metaphysical metaphor?

The orb is the bait for Book 5. DD axes Sirius (Voldie-proofing
Harry). He allows Bella to escape to the Atrium, er
and Harry to
follow her there. When its clear that the orb is gone, Voldie goes
for the silver-lining of at least snuffing the brat. DD shows up
just in time to get in the way, and then proceeds to vex Volemort by
merely frustrating his efforts to kill anyone, until the DL goes for
the possession gambit.

DD's satisfaction that the Voldie-proofing has worked leads an
instant reversal of his book-long behavior (now he wants to be
(really) close to Harry, and won't stop talking).

`Course he then misleads Harry into believing the Prohecy is
*real.*  tsk.

Oh, yeah. And now Lucius has really screwed up.

Snape's DE star, however, is on the rise. Perhaps he suggested the
Draco plan? Seems consonant with activities, so far.

And what is accomplished in Book 6?

Well, as far as Harry goes, the very opposite of the *Sirius* plan.
The *Snape* plan.

Where Sirius's death set off a storm of love power, Snape as DD's
murderer sets off a typhoon of hate.

This is in line with DD's little hate/revenge pep talk (HBP 511-512).

So, I predict that in Book 7 we will see events accomplished, that
would not have been, were Harry not seething with hate and desire
for revenge.

By the end, of course, love will regain, and hold, the day.

No, DD is not Jesus (Rowling flat out says so), but he does work in
mysterious ways.

So, the answer is, bboy, that not only was DD's death part of the
plan, but his death by Snape's hand. In Harry's sight. On the night
in question.

zgirnius:
Message #159405
> I kind of like the theory that Dumbledore's death was not planned
in
> advance, that I mentioned above. Because I think that would make it
> the hardest for things to get straightened out in Book 7 (and thus,
> the most exciting/suspenseful to read about.<grin>)

Talisman:
The fact that all is part of DD's great plan is what will allow
Rowling to wrap up what so many readers consider to be *too many
loose ends.* I think you're just bucking for a 2000 page book.
Nice try.

Nate
Message #159422
>For more information on the latter theory, see Professor Mum's
>theory 'Severus Stands In' on livejournal, linked below:
>http://professor-mum.livejournal.com/5922.html#cutid1 - Part One
>http://professor-mum.livejournal.com/6547.html#cutid1 - Part Two

Talisman:
Yeeees, well my own explanation of how Snape stands in for DD can be
found in the Dark Phoenix posts from April of this year, at #151314,
et seq.

I wouldn't hang so heavily on conversational idiosyncrasies as
professor-mum does. While she offers the same basic idea (now
revised to allow Snape to live) my proofs and attitude differ.

Rowling did me a great favor by clarifying that DD is really dead--
and that Snape is deliciously alive. No one was offering me a
justified argument contra, and I really did want one. Her comment
allowed me to review my analytical construct and to further refine
it.

Sure, it seems like a big deal, one person dead instead of another,
but really, it's explained by a little zig vs. zag in my theory.
Turns out I just wasn't being Byzantine enough! Once the change was
located, I found that series wide canon verified my revised analysis.

This has empowered a new series-wide theory, for which I am still
gathering canon, as time permits. It goes much further than Dark
Phoenix, and I expect to publish it, finished or not, around
Christmas time--if not sooner (to allow time for discussion before
Book 7 comes out).

Magpie:
Message #159446
>I think Snape and DD definitely have plans in certain emergencies,
>but isn't it rather an important point that Dumbledore *didn't* know
>DEs were close to getting into the castle? The Cabinet Plot is the
>monkey wrench in everyone's plans.

Talisman:
No monkey wrench in my position, as set out below.

zgirnius:
Message #159879
>I gather that the Death Eaters were defending the foot of the tower
>stairs.. The Order members who describe the battle to Harry refer to
>Death Eaters going up and down those stairs, suggesting they control
>the access to the Tower.

Talisman:
Take a closer look at your text. Gibbon went up and down early on,
but was lying dead before Draco headed up stairs. The remainder of
the DE invasion party went up stairs, except the big blonde, started
blabbing and remained there until Snape led them down.

There is absolutely *no* evidence of DE activity on or around the
stairs at the time Snape ascended them. Everyone who had gone up
had been in conversation with DD for quite awhile before Snape
arrived. (see more fulsome description, below)

zgirnius, cont.
>The voices Harry hears while on the Tower, of Order members, sound
>like they are trying to get up the stairs. Another reason for Snape
>to suppose that something is >happening up the stairs.

Talisman:
Only two people tried (Neville and Lupin), and they were back to
dodging Blondie's hexes well before Snape's arrival. Again, see
below.

Snape knew what was afoot long before Flitwick came tripping down
the stairs, and the canon is against any *on the fly* explanation
for Snape`s behavior.

But I think we should back up and look at the big picture.

**Some Evidence of The Plan**

So, let's look at some of the evidence that demonstrates that DD not
only knew how and when Draco would succeed in invading the castle,
but co-opted the baddies' efforts, par usual, to his own ends.

We should recall that the twins shoved Montague into the broken
Vanishing Cabinet (OoP 627), and Snape retrieved him from the toilet
(638-39), sometime before Easter (651) of Year 5--well before the
end of term.

Left in Snape's office, Harry wonders how much time he has to
explore Snape's memories (639). We might do well to follow
Rowling's lead, and consider for ourselves how much time Snape would
invest in the situation, that night and later.

Harry reasons that, inasmuch as Montague is Captain of the Slytherin
Quidditch team, Snape will probably go as far as taking him to the
hospital wing and making sure he's alright (639).

Whatever Snape, the expert healer and head of Slytherin House, did
that first night, we know that Montague was dangerously injured
(OoP678-79), he almost died (HBP 587), and irate parents had to be
reasoned with (OoP 678).

We also know that, upon being called to extract Montague from the
loo, the first question Snape asked was: "How did he get in there?"
(OoP 639).

I vouchsafe that, Quidditch Captain or no, Snape made it his
business to find out *exactly* how. I am quite sure that, in the
course of time, Snape turned on his handy Legilimens beams and knew
everything about the matter that Montague did, and then some.

Not that he would have needed his special powers, apparently
Montague recovered before the end of term and became something of a
celebrity relating his woeful tale: *Everyone thought it was a
really good story...* (HBP 587).

Undoubtedly, Snape heard the whole exciting tale.

This includes Montague's description of his sojourn in limbo--
sometimes hearing what was going on at Hogwarts, sometimes what was
going on in Borgin and Burkes (587).

Young Malfoy flatters himself that only he could figure out that a
pair of the Cabinets existed, which could be used as access ways
between their two locations (587).

Oddly, I don't share Draco's opinion.

For one thing, when Draco has barely managed boasting of repairing
the Hogwarts Vanishing Cabinet, DD helps him finish the explanation
saying *There is a pair, I take it?* (587).

Draco hasn't said anything about how he used the cabinet, but DD is
way ahead.

Whatever Draco realized (in Year 5) about the Cabinet, I'm confident
that older, brighter, more experienced wizards would know how
Vanishing Cabinets work, and would understand the implications
immediately.

(I wonder who put the Vanishing Cabinet in the room of Requirement,
after Nick induced Peeves to smash it. Some tidy House Elf?

Even if DD and Snape didn't already know where it was, all they'd
have to do is ask an elf.)

The other Cabinet was specifically identified by Montague as being
at Borgin and Burkes.

Snape knew, by the time of the UV, if not earlier, that Draco was on
the mission to kill DD. (Again, I would not be surprised if it were
his/DD's idea.)

The Saturday after his birthday (max August 7) Harry sees and hears
Draco's antics in Borgin and Burkes ( HBP 105, 124-25).

He reports this all, plus his reasons for believing Draco bears
Voldemort's mark, to Arthur Weasley (133-35), who--no matter how he
pooh-poohs Harry at the time--takes the tip seriously enough to
search the Malfoy residence, again.

Now, Arthur is also a member of the Order. I think we must accept
he also shared this information with DD.

To underscore the fact that the Order would have standing orders to
report anything suspicious, Rowling has DD caution students to do so
at the start of term feast: *I implore you, should you notice
anything strange or suspicious within or without the castle, to
report it to a member of the staff, immediately* (HBP 168).

Voldemort's back and hostile action is intensifying. I can't
imagine any argument against the Order reporting all suspicions to
DD, directly--as would any staff member who either had their own
information or received it from a student.

To recap: last spring Montague was telling all the Slyths about this
broken Vanishing Cabinet that allowed him to hear both Hogwarts and
Borgin and Burkes, then by summer Harry reports that Draco, who is
known to be on a mission to kill DD, is threatening Borgin to help
him fix one of a pair of something *too big to carry, and to keep
the other one safe* (HBP 130). What could Draco mean? (She asks
facetiously.)

DD is an expert in magical objects and is, if he says so himself,
blessed... with extraordinary brain power* (HBP 359 ). Snape's
right up there with him. Between that and the evidence on the
tower, the safe bet is that they understood all too well what Draco
was up to, before the Year 6 term even began.

Between witnessing Draco's detour, and spying on the train, Harry is
obsessing over Draco's plan by the time he arrives at school.

Snape meets him at the gate and apparently knows the contents of his
porous little noggin, right there. 

Rowling goes to the bother of telling us that Snape's comments to 
Harry, denying him use of the Invisibility Cloak--just as he was 
considering using it--came "[a]s though
he had read Harry's mind" (162).

Well, yeah.

But we don't have to settle for the obvious background knowledge 
that Snape and DD can review Harry's thoughts, at will.

Halfway through October Katie Bell is injured by the cursed opals.

Harry reminds McGonagall that the necklace was from Borgin and
Burkes and insists that Draco is behind the attack (253).

Harry has repeatedly raised the B &B connection. Even if DD/Snape
had not investigated the B & B link in at the end of OoP, or early
in HBP, certainly they would do so now. Poke about a bit. See what
old Borgin had on his mind?

They're not total incompetents.

When Harry hears that Draco was with McG at the time of the 
incident, he immediately draws the conclusion that Draco has an
accomplice--and says so.

McGonagall is not prepared to believe that Draco's behind it, but
indicates that she will relay Harry's concerns to DD (256).

By page 260, DD confirms that McGonagall has indeed conveyed Harry's
suspicions, and assures Harry that he will *take appropriate
measures to investigate... .*

Now, what would such an investigation entail?

At a minimum: checking who purchased the opals from Borgin and
Burkes; having a tactful little Legi-chat with Draco (oh, yes,
Legi); and--inasmuch as it happened in the ladies room of the Three
Broomsticks-- paying a visit to Madame Rosmerta.

Wanna bet Madame was looking a little funny about the eyes?

Remember F!Moody's instructions (as he demonstrates on Harry): "--
watch his eyes, that's where you see it" (GoF 232).

I guarantee that someone with the magical acumen of DD or Snape can
recognize when a person is acting under an Imperious curse.

Note that the Order members share my belief.

After the post-hearing encounter with Lucius and Fudge, Harry
asks: "
if Fudge is meeting Death Eaters like Malfoy
how do we know
they haven't put the Imperius Curse on him?" (OoP 155)

Arthur answers: "Don't think it hasn't occurred to us
[b]ut
Dumbledore thinks Fudge is acting of his own accord at the moment
"

(And, yes, DD knew Crouch Sr. was under an Imperius that Halloween
night in Book 4, but that`s another story.)

By Slughorn's Christmas Party, we have Snape's counseling session
with Draco. Likely there are readers who think this scene proves
Draco was able to use Occlumency to cover his tracks. I say it
proves the opposite.

You may recall the pertinent dialogue:

Draco: "--don't look at me like that! I know what you're doing, I'm
not stupid, but it won't work--I can stop you!"

"There was a pause [as Snape riffled the little gray cells] and then
Snape said quietly, `Ah...Aunt Bellatrix has been teaching you
Occlumency I see'* (322).

*I see,* indeed.

There are those who will cling to the gossamer strand that Snape
merely guessed who had been teaching Draco, but let's remember the
book that we are reading, and that our author is aware of the
implications of her text.

I say he just extracted that information from Draco's pissy little
head.

Draco may well have picked up some Occlumency over the summer, but
hardly enough to handle Snape

We can see that Occlumency (like Legilimens) is not an all or
nothing proposition.

Lupin says that Snape is a *superb Occlumens* (OoP 527); a *highly
accomplished Occlumens* (HBP 615). The mere presence of the
adjectives indicates that skills lie along a continuum; there are
great Occlumens, and by the same coin, there are mediocre and
inferior Occlumens.

Draco would appear to be one of the less accomplished variety.

Along with understanding that Bella is the teacher, Snape can
perceive that Draco is *trying* to use Occlumency against him.

Imagine the consequences if LV saw that sort of evidence in Snape's
mind (substitute DD, if you're into ESE).

When Snape asks: "What thoughts are you trying to conceal from your
master, Draco?" (322), (emphasis on *trying*) it is a question
facilitating the ongoing probe of Draco's mind.

(BTW, the answer is: I don't have the balls for this.)

The bottom line is that Snape and Dumbledore are both incredible
Legilimens. Draco would have to be one puissant Occlumens to keep
them out of his head, and the evidence indicates he's just not up to
snuff.

(By the way, did you notice how Snape is constantly monitoring
Harry's cranium, even in the thick of battle?

"Mustering all his powers of concentration, Harry thought, Levi--"

"No, Potter!...you dare use my own spells against me?...no!" (604).

He's streaming Harry's head, the whole time.)

Both Draco and Harry have regular contact with
Snape in DADA class, all year. Draco has extra Snape time, thanks
to Narcissa's request and his membership in Slytherin House. Harry,
on the other hand, has special bathroom and detention moments,
plus extra quality time with Dumbledore, throughout the year.

Neither one of them has any secrets. Nobody was fooled.

So, the evidence reveals that at the time of the Christmas party 
Draco is making a clumsy attempt at Occlumency, and Snape is playing 
along.

Why is he playing along?

Part of your answer is out on the ramparts, where DD explains: *Why
else do you think I have not confronted you before now? Because I
knew that you would have been murdered if Lord Voldemort realized
that I suspected you (591).

Obviously DD believes Draco is susceptible to Voldmort's Legilimency.

(The other part of the answer is that DD always controls matters so
that they happen in his time. He wanted things to play out as they
did on the tower, but not before he was finished preparing Harry for
the final run.)

Legilimency is not the only power to which Draco is susceptible.
Notice how Rowling reiterates her little clue as we see Draco
blabbering away: *as though he could not help himself...as though he
was compelled to keep talking* (586, 589).

DD is not as powerless as he might seem.

Speaking of which, it is evident that DD is crafting his tower
conversation equally to stall, to control the information Voldemort
will later obtain from Draco's head, and to give Harry certain
pieces of information.

For instance, by playing out the Rosmerta ruse DD will keep LV from
realizing that DD purposefully fed her misinformation--thereby
alerting LV that DD had his own plan in play--and so whizzing
in the covert cream.

This also allows him to alert Harry to Rosmerta's predicament.
We'll see later that Harry informs the Order, ensuring that Rosmerta
will receive help and escape prosecution for her part in Draco's
plot.

We could vet the whole conversation, but that's another post.
Evidence of the plan, per se, will take us long enough.

So, onward. We see that Snape and DD would have realized the
implications of Montague's experience, knew of the Draco plot, had
further verification through Harry's repeated warnings of the B & B
connection, and have been able to monitor Draco's progress any of
the myriad times they had eye contact with him, over the course of
the year.

Then Ron ingests the poisoned meade on March 1st.

I'm sure Dumbledore had a nice chat with Slughorn after the
poisoning, and that the fact that it was Madame Rosmerta's *oak-
matured mead* was overkill to point to problems at the Three
Broomsticks.

Hmmm, cursed opals and poisoned meade, both from Rosmerta's place.
How dim would DD have to be? If not before, then surely by March,
he would have had that *penetrating conversation* with our bodacious
barkeep.

Sometime later in March, Dobby gives his surveillance report and
Harry knows Draco is carrying out his plan in the RoR (452).

Soon thereafter, Harry figures out that Crabbe and Goyle are
disguised by Polyjuice (454). Harry hears Malfoy celebrating, and
knows what-ever-it-is is fixed (550).

DD knows exactly what Draco has been working on. Indeed, because
every book, including this one, is overflowing with evidence that DD
not only knows what is going on, but controls it, I expect he
insured the Cabinet would work on this particular night.

It is time for DD's plan to go down.

So, when Harry rushes to tell DD what he has overheard, we should
not be surprised that the response (be it Albus or Severus <g>) is
supremely blasé.

Until Harry presses the point. Then it's time to shut down the line
of inquiry.

*Enough,* he commands, in a tone that lets Harry know he has
*crossed some invisible line*

*I do not wish to discuss the matter any further* (550)

Gracious, no. A critical part of DD's plan is the manipulation of
Harry's behavior in the final adventure. For this to work, Harry
cannot be allowed to see DD's complicity in, let alone control of,
the unfolding events.

Back to the Evening's evidence:

There is a mighty pedestrian beginning to the cave adventure.

Harry and Dumbledore *made their way down the drive in the gathering
twilight (553)...They turned out of the gates into the twilit,
deserted lane to Hogsmeade. Darkness descended fast as they walked*
(554).

As we've discussed in the earlier posts, twilight occurred within
moments of 11:00 PM throughout June 1997.

We know that Snape was summoned near midnight (619) and AK-ed
Dumbledore shortly thereafter.

Ron tells us that Draco didn't emerge from the RoR until *about an
hour after we started keeping watch* (618).

Well, that would be about all of the same hour Harry was absent from
the castle.

Therefore, everything happened in close proximity to one side or the
other of the stroke of midnight. The battle was brief.

Draco had only just *succeeded* in repairing the Vanishing Cabinet a
few moments before Harry was informed of the night's Hx outing.

Thereafter, Rosmerta coin-messaged Draco to say that Dumbledore was
having a few at the Hog's Head.

During the greater part of this hour, Draco was summoning his
cohorts and reviewing details of how to bait Dumbledore with the
Dark Mark, etc.

Near the end of the hour, Draco emerges, spots Ron et al, and the
skirmish is on.

Draco tosses a handful of Peruvian Instant Darkness Powder into the
seventh floor corridor in front of the RoR, and leads the DEs
downward toward the Astronomy tower entrance, on the fourth floor.

Taken unaware, Ron and his DA team grope their way toward light, and
meet up with Lupin (and apparently the rest of the Order, aka *us*)
who manage to find the DE's *minutes later* (618).

(Hmmm, makes one wonder why all the Order members are bunched up on
the seventh floor, when they've supposedly got lots of corridors and
secret passageways to cover.

And, why wasn't the Order focused on Draco? Why didn't they follow 
him
to the RoR? Why was the DA guarding it? Harry had warned the Order
repeatedly, Snape knew about the plot, Lupin understood the Fenrir
connection, etc., etc.)

There is a brief engagement and chase, and everyone ends up in the
corridor by the stairway to the tower (618).

Gibbon heads up to the tower to cast the Dark Mark, comes running
back, and is mowed down by friendly fire (618).

Ron's evidence lends credence to Rosmerta's claim (Imperio-ed or
not) that the Dark Mark appeared only moments before Harry and
Dumbledore Apparated back to the High Street (581).

Indeed, I'm sure it was part of Rosmerta's job to raise the alarm,
and that if Dumbledore hadn't appeared in the street when he did,
she would have been off to the Hog's Head to point out the Dark
Mark, lest he miss it all whilst sipping another pint of meade.

The DE hit squad wouldn't want to have to hang around all night
waiting for Dumbly to totter back home.

So, within moments of the opening fourth floor fracas, Dumbledore
and Harry have seen the Dark Mark and are speeding toward the tower.

Meanwhile Bill, Lupin, Tonks, McGonagall, Ron, Ginny, and Neville
are mixing it up with Fenrir, Blondie, Alecto, Amycus, Brutal Face,
and Draco.

Dumbledore and Harry arrive on the ramparts only moments before
Draco (buzzed by Rosmerta) shows up (584).

Ten minutes, or less, of conversation (try it) and the DE's show
up.

Give the DE's another 5-10 minutes of sassy dialogue.

While everyone is chatting in the night air, the Order members have
nothing to do downstairs but dodge one blonde DE's erratic jinxes.

(We won't dwell on how lame it is that they can't manage to
neutralize him.)

During this time Neville tries to go upstairs and is blasted back on
his long bottom.

Meanwhile, thanks to Draco's cold feet, events on the tower have
reached an impasse.

Suddenly Snape hurtles through the tower door, wand at the ready,
fires off his AK and is back out the door in less than a minute.

Let's us likewise cut to the chase with evidence that Snape and
Dumbledore knew exactly what was going down that fateful night.

Snape Knew to Go Straight to the Tower.

Snape sped through the dark chaotic corridor where the rest of the
Order/DA were dodging Blondie's wild jinxes, and--without hesitating
to assess the situation or ask for information--raced directly to
the top of the Astronomy Tower.

He obviously was not waiting for McGonagall to tell him what was
happening, or where.

We aren't told exactly when McGonagall sent Flitwick for Snape.
However, there is no description of Flitwick battling the DEs.

Additionally, as most of the 11:00PM to midnight hour had elapsed
before the DEs showed up, and it was still short of midnight when
Flitwick arrived in the dungeons-- adding in the sad truth that it's
a long way to run on short legs--he must have been dispatched right
away.

In which case, Flitwick would not even know that the DEs had 
repaired to the Tower.

Moreover, Hermione reports hearing Flitwick in the corridor,
*shouting about Death Eaters in the castle* then, entering Snape's
office and *saying that Snape had to go back with him and help...
[zap] ::loud thump:: *(619).

We don't hear any explanation about tower action.

Snape pauses long enough to direct Hermione and Luna to *take care
of * Flitwick (what a sweetheart), and heads upstairs.

(Flitwick's *errand* was just a good method of taking him out of
harm's way, and Snape made sure he didn't go back into danger.)

Back to the action:

According to Tonks, by the time Snape arrives, it *was all
dark...curses flying everywhere* (620). Neville and Bill are
bleeding all over the floor and the rest of Order/DA seem to be held
at bay.

Note that even though Ron concludes that *no one* could get through
the barrier, the evidence shows that only Neville and Lupin tried.
Lupin says he was *thrown back just like Neville* (620) 

Not "just like the rest of them," "just like Neville." Only Neville 
and Lupin
actually tried.

Neville is flat on the floor by the time Snape shows up and Lupin
doesn't make his attempt at the stairs until Snape has already
passed the barrier ("I tried to follow him" HBP 620).

The point being that there was *no* on-going activity at the stairs
which might have constituted nonverbal evidence to make Snape think
that he should run for the tower.

Moreover, Tonks gives us an idea of how rapidly Snape comes on,
darkness and confusion notwithstanding: "Then Snape was there...then
he wasn't;"

Ginny says she "saw him running towards us" but then ducked and
lost sight of him;

Lupin relates how Snape ran "straight through the cursed barrier as
though it wasn't there"(620).

Amazingly focused and accurate behavior from a man who supposedly
wouldn't know anything if McGonagall hadn't sent for him, I'd say.

*Bonus Mystery Kicker*

Tonks reckons that one of the DEs *must have* created the
barrier...but did they?

After the barrier is up, aside from Neville and Lupin's attempts to
mount the stairway, the Order/DA hang around doing nothing but
avoiding the blonde DE's wandfire.

Lupin later tells us that one of the blonde's hexes *damaged the
ceiling and broke the curse blocking the stairs* (612).

How would Lupin know--just by sight, in a dark, curse-filled, and
now dust-filled corridor--that the barrier had even been broken?

What reason did he have to believe that a battle hex would break the
barrier?

If what he said was true--which I doubt--and he knew that a hex
would work in that manner, why didn't he cast a hex to break the
barrier, himself?

Notice that the barrier supposedly broke just before Snape and Draco
emerged, exiting the tower stairs.

If so, the event supports the idea that the barrier was created by
Dumbledore and, like Harry's Body Bind, dissolved with Dumbledore's
death.

Further evidence, not only of a Dumbledorian plan, but of the Order's
complicity in it.

DD was Obviously Lying to Draco.

While Draco may be pompous and self-deluded, neither Snape nor
Dumbledore will hesitate to dissemble in the name of the cause. You
can't sit back and expect a guided tour of the truth. You've got to
compare what is said to more objective evidence.

The conversation with Draco is fully *on stage* it is not a heart-to-
heart in which Dumbledore is baring his soul.

There is clear evidence that Dumbledore is lying (as well he should
be). But let's work up to it with some merely provocative
statements.

At one point he says, of the Vanishing Cabinet plan, *It seems to
have taken you a long time to work out how to do it.* (586)

An odd statement if he's supposed to be surprised it was
accomplished, at all.

Later, when Draco is crowing about how his plan *worked,* Dumbledore
says enigmatically: *Well...yes and no...* (590), and leaves it at
that..

Point-blank he tells Draco: *we are quite alone* (590) and we know
that isn't true. DD knows it, too.

A little common sense should tell us that there's more fiction
flying through the night air.

Take that matter of Rosmerta's enslaved complicity.

Dumbledore Knew Rosmerta Was Draco's Accomplice Long Before the
Tower Scene.

Halfway through October Katie Bell is injured by the cursed opals.
Harry reminds McGonagall that the necklace was from Borgin and
Burkes and insists that Draco is behind the attack (253).

When Harry hears that Draco was with McG at the time, he immediately
draws the conclusion that Draco has an accomplice--and says so.

McGonagall is not prepared to believe that Draco's behind it, but
indicates that she will relay Harry's concerns to DD (256).

By page 260, DD confirms that McGonagall has indeed conveyed Harry's
suspicions, and assures Harry that he will *take appropriate
measures to investigate... .*

Now, what would such an investigation entail?

At a minimum checking who purchased the opals from Borgin and
Burkes; having a tactful little Legi-chat with Draco; and--inasmuch
as it happened in the ladies room of the Three Broomsticks-- paying
a visit to Madame Rosmerta.

Wanna bet Madame was looking a little wonky about the eyes?

Yes, you can tell. Remember F!Moody's instructions (as he
demonstrates on Harry): "--watch his eyes, that's where you see it"
(GoF 232).

I guarantee that someone with the magical acumen of DD or Snape can
recognize the victim of an Imperious curse.

Note that the Order members share my belief.

After the post-hearing encounter with Lucius and Fudge, Harry
asks: "
if Fudge is meeting Death Eaters like Malfoy
how do we know
they haven't put the Imperius Curse on him?" (OoP 155)

Arthur answers: "Don't think it hasn't occurred to us
[b]ut
Dumbledore thinks Fudge is acting of his own accord at the moment
"

(And, yes, DD knew Crouch Sr. was under and Imperius that Halloween
night in Book 4, but that`s another story.)

The Ruse

*Dumbledore* clearly wants Rosmerta to see him and to believe he is
spending his sickles at the Hog's Head.

There was absolutely no other reason to walk all the way through
town before Apparating.

Yes, a signal undoubtedly passes between *DD* and Aberforth via the
Hog's Head sign. But, he didn't need to walk all the way to town to
signal that he was off to the cave.

Rowling goes to the bother of telling us how long a walk it is from
Hogsmeade to Hogwarts:

"They set off toward the lane that led to the
school (158)
[t]hey trudged up the dark deserted lane...
(158) ...they tramped on through the night in silence... (159)
Having always traveled there by carriage, Harry had never before
appreciated just how far Hogwarts was from Hogsmeade Station. With
great relief he finally saw the...gate [to Hogwarts grounds]" (159).

The dilligent reader recalls this very long walk when considering
the long walk *DD* and Harry take on the fateful night.

*DD* could have sent his patronus to the Hog's Head and Apparated
with Harry once he was outside Hogwarts grounds--anywhere along that
very long walk to town.

*DD* clearly wanted to encounter Rosmerta, and tell her his tale of
visiting the Hog's Head. That's also why Harry had to remain under
the Invisibility Cloak.

The rest of the WW will figure out soon enough that Harry was out
with him. But--just for a little while--tonight--DD wants the DEs to
remain in the dark.

Earlier in the story, Rowling goes to the bother of informing us 
that Slughorn had warning (3 minutes) before DD and Harry walked up 
to his door.

No matter what DD says about courtesy, they Apparated a fair stretch 
from
Slughorn's borrowed residence.

DD was "allowing" Slughorn to detect his arrival, and take whatever
actions he would.

It's logical to expect that part of Rosmerta's duties were to detect 
DD's arrival.

I believe she staged her sudden appearance in the street, to confirm
what DD was up to.

And DD obliges. In his deceptive fashion.

So Harry and DD walk all the way past the Three Broomsticks, and
down another side street until they are in front of Hog's Head (HBP
554).

The little *creak* of recognition--sans breeze (554).

"....As long as no one sees us go
"(554).

And, DD now seems to be confident that no one does
.

We know that Rosmerta quickly informs Draco, as ordered, and that
DD pretends to have just figured all this out during his
conversation with Draco on the ramparts (where Draco seems *forced*
to respond).

But we can see that DD knew all along. DD used Draco's imperio-ed
*assistant* for his own ends.

I see I've gotten long-winded again. Here are just a few more
thoughts, to wrap things up.

Why didn't anyone follow Harry when he chased after Snape? Even if
the rest of the Order/DA had been fooled by an ESE!Snape (which
obviously, I'm not buying) *all* the other DE's give chase after
Harry.

And McG orders everyone to the infirmary
? And they go
? Heh?

To hell with Harry.

Either there is a plan, or the Order are a bunch of first rate
wankers.

And, how did Lupin know about the Dark Mark bait? Who told him? No
one reports going up to the tower after Snape & Co. leave. 

And, even if they had, how in the world would he know Gibbon cast it?

In fine:
Extemporaneous!Dumbledore is a twinkly-eyed old reprobate who
requires readers to avoid the plain text and resort instead to
sweeping generalizations or fabricated alibis to keep him innocent
of forethought.

I'll have none of it.

It's all about The Plan.

Looking forward to Dark days ahead,

Talisman