Sirius, Sirus, and more Sirius (was: Petunia/Headmaster/LVatHogwarts/Mo...)

[a_svirn]

No: HPFGUIDX 158715

> Pippin:
> No danger of an attack planned by Voldemort and carried out
> by an army of DE's. There's no canon that the Order has ever
> been effective against attacks carried out by Voldemort himself,
> either in his own body or possessing another, or attacks carried 
> out by DE's on their own, both of which Dumbledore needs to fear,
> and neither of which we have seen take place at Privet Drive.

a_svirn:
Umbridge almost did Harry in with her dementors. I don't see why 
voledomort or a homicidal DE couldn't come up with a similar plan. 

> > a_svirn:
 In real life any parents with 
> > Dumbledore's kind of resources wouldn't have to make this 
choice. 
> > Instead of sending their children with Kindertransport they 
would 
> > sail together to a safer heaven on their own yacht. The 
privileged 
> > and powerful have more choices than the poor and desperate. And 
> > Dumbledore certainly belonged to the former. 
> 
> Pippin:
> The rich and privileged can run out of options just like everyone 
else.
> IIRC, there were parents who thought they had better options than 
the 
> Kindertransport and turned it down, only to realize they'd made a
> terrible mistake. 

a_svirn:
By that time they were considerably less privileged, were they? You 
can't say the same of Dumbledore. 

> Pippin:
> In any case, you are talking about a secret refuge, protected with
> the most sophisticated spells, er, systems, to which only the most
> trusted persons are admitted? Sounds like Godric's Hollow. It
> worked for about a week. Dumbledore thought he had something
> better. If it *is* better I admit we haven't had a chance to see.
> But I doubt JKR has made us wait to the end in order to
> demonstrate that it doesn't work. What would be the point? 

a_svirn:
And Dumbledore's magic worked for about ten years. But only because 
Voldemort was incapacitated. When he found himself a carrier, even 
in a shape of a "mediocre wizard" Dumbledore's magic didn't help. 
Lilly's did – in the end and even so it was a close call. And 
afterwards almost every year Harry faced Voldemort and lived to tell 
the tale every time NOT because of the blood protection. 

> > a_svirn:
> > "Forced to kill him"?! I just see Moody at the debriefing 
> > session, "these crazy folks they just keep getting in my way, 
> > forcing my hand". 
> 
> Pippin:
> Er, no, it went like this:
> "Rosier is dead," said Crouch. "He was caught shortly after
> you were too. He preferred to fight rather than come quietly
> and was killed in the struggle."
> "Took a bit of me with him, though," whispered Moody to
> Harry's right. Harry looked around at him once more, and
> saw him indicating the large chunk out of his nose to
> Dumbledore. --GoF ch 30

a_svirn:
That's a broad definition of suicide you have here.
>  
> 
> > a_svirn:
> > It's not like Dumbledore's solution was any better. If Harry is 
> > still alive it's not thanks to Dumbledore's carefully laid 
plans. 
> > 
> Pippin:
> Isn't it? <snip> 
> Or why Voldemort said, "Not even I can touch him there."?
> -GoF ch 33
> 

a_svirn:
So? He could touch him elsewhere. And before Harry attended Hogwarts 
he attended a muggle school, visited Mrs. Figg etc. 


> > a_svirn:
> > He penetrated just fine through Dumbledore's wards. In OOP he 
> > started to mess up Harry's mind while Harry was still at the 
Privet 
> > Drive. 
> 
> Pippin:
> Sorry, do we know that? I thought it was Harry penetrating 
> *Voldemort's* mind, as shown by the fact that it all stopped 
> when Voldemort, not Harry, began practicing occlumency.

a_svirn:
Oops, you are right. Still the connection was there despite of the 
wards. 
> 
> Pippin:
> I've already pointed out that it worked in PoA because Dumbledore
> had seen Harry's patronus and recognized that it was confirmation
> of what Sirius was saying. There were a lot of people unjustly 
> imprisoned by the Ministry during the Voldemort War. You can
> hardly blame Dumbledore if he spent his efforts in trying to
> free the ones for which there wasn't overwhelming evidence of
> guilt. If he made a mistake it was underestimating the lengths
> to which Voldemort would go to frame an innocent person. 
> 
> And Sirius *did* have a guilty secret that  would have
> put him in Azkaban for a long time regardless, one that he shared
> with another.  He could hardly have established his innocence 
> without betraying Lupin. If we're to believe him, he'd sooner 
> have died.
 

a_svirn:
I don't see how the stag patronus would matter. It would confirm the 
animagi part of the story but for the rest?