Sirius, Sirus, and more Sirius (was: Petunia/Headmaster/LVatHogwarts/Mo...)

[pippin_999]

No: HPFGUIDX 158665


> > Pippin:
> > Er, the Order exists to keep Voldemort from taking over. 
> 
> a_svirn:
> Very good point. And we know that the order was effectively 
> disbanded between the wars. Remember in OOP:
> 
> "Thanks to you, Dumbledore was able to recall the Order of the 
> Phoenix about an hour after Voldemort returned,' said Sirius."
> 
> That's how it works: no danger – no order. 

Pippin:
No danger of an attack planned by Voldemort and carried out
by an army of DE's. There's no canon that the Order has ever
been effective against attacks carried out by Voldemort himself,
either in his own body or possessing another, or attacks carried 
out by DE's on their own, both of which Dumbledore needs to fear,
and neither of which we have seen take place at Privet Drive.


> > Pippin:
> >  What's analogous is that Sirius agreed to send Harry
> > away from a loving home in what was not yet obviously
> > mortal danger to a future where he might face cruelty 
> > and neglect but at least would be protected from the danger
> > Dumbledore foresaw.  I was pointing out that far from being a 
> > fairytale contrived dilemma that no one would face in real 
> > life, there were and are many parents who have had to make 
> > such choices.
> 
> a_svirn:
> Oh, but of course it is contrived. In real life any parents with 
> Dumbledore's kind of resources wouldn't have to make this choice. 
> Instead of sending their children with Kindertransport they would 
> sail together to a safer heaven on their own yacht. The privileged 
> and powerful have more choices than the poor and desperate. And 
> Dumbledore certainly belonged to the former. 

Pippin:
The rich and privileged can run out of options just like everyone else.
IIRC, there were parents who thought they had better options than the 
Kindertransport and turned it down, only to realize they'd made a
terrible mistake. 

In any case, you are talking about a secret refuge, protected with
the most sophisticated spells, er, systems, to which only the most
trusted persons are admitted? Sounds like Godric's Hollow. It
worked for about a week. Dumbledore thought he had something
better. If it *is* better I admit we haven't had a chance to see.
But I doubt JKR has made us wait to the end in order to
demonstrate that it doesn't work. What would be the point? 

> a_svirn:
> "Forced to kill him"?! I just see Moody at the debriefing 
> session, "these crazy folks they just keep getting in my way, 
> forcing my hand". 

Pippin:
Er, no, it went like this:
"Rosier is dead," said Crouch. "He was caught shortly after
you were too. He preferred to fight rather than come quietly
and was killed in the struggle."
"Took a bit of me with him, though," whispered Moody to
Harry's right. Harry looked around at him once more, and
saw him indicating the large chunk out of his nose to
Dumbledore. --GoF ch 30
 

> a_svirn:
> It's not like Dumbledore's solution was any better. If Harry is 
> still alive it's not thanks to Dumbledore's carefully laid plans. 
> 
Pippin:
Isn't it? Why was the ministry monitoring Privet Drive "given...given 
past events" when they didn't believe Voldemort would return? 
--OOP ch 8

Anybody ever wonder what Rosier was doing when
he was captured? 

Or why Harry had an out of sequence memory of a dragon 
rearing up in front of him? (OOP 24)

Or why Voldemort said, "Not even I can touch him there."?
-GoF ch 33

> a_svirn:
> He penetrated just fine through Dumbledore's wards. In OOP he 
> started to mess up Harry's mind while Harry was still at the Privet 
> Drive. 

Pippin:
Sorry, do we know that? I thought it was Harry penetrating 
*Voldemort's* mind, as shown by the fact that it all stopped 
when Voldemort, not Harry, began practicing occlumency.


> a_svirn:
> Well he could brief Sirius and see what he had to say, couldn't he. 
> It worked in POA, it could work then.

Pippin:
I've already pointed out that it worked in PoA because Dumbledore
had seen Harry's patronus and recognized that it was confirmation
of what Sirius was saying. There were a lot of people unjustly 
imprisoned by the Ministry during the Voldemort War. You can
hardly blame Dumbledore if he spent his efforts in trying to
free the ones for which there wasn't overwhelming evidence of
guilt. If he made a mistake it was underestimating the lengths
to which Voldemort would go to frame an innocent person. 

And Sirius *did* have a guilty secret that  would have
put him in Azkaban for a long time regardless, one that he shared
with another.  He could hardly have established his innocence 
without betraying Lupin. If we're to believe him, he'd sooner 
have died.

Pippin