Will the Real Severus Snape please step forward?/The Dursleys/James' Patronu

[sistermagpie]

No: HPFGUIDX 167673

> Magpie:
> <snip> 
> > Because Snape is central to the struggle. He's not taking a 
> > backseat. He's agreeing to spy on the DEs at personal risk.
> 
> Dana:
> I was wondering about his spying for the Order and the so-called 
> great personal risk, he endures because of it. Then it occurred to 
> me, what would have put Snape more at risk, returning to LV or not 
> returning? 
> 
> I'd say not returning and sure there was a slight chance, LV would 
> not buy Snape's excuses for not showing up when summoned, but not 
> going at all was a sure death sentence. 

Magpie:
It would definitely have made LV put out a hit on Snape if Snape 
didn't return, but Snape would be in the safety of Hogwarts with 
Dumbledore. As a spy he's making himself vulnerable to Voldemort by 
going to him after all the things he's done. There was a big chance 
he'd have been killed on the spot or LV wouldn't believe his 
excuses. Spying is dangerous by definition. With LV back Snape is in 
danger; he's allegedly agreed to use the danger to Dumbledore's 
advantage rather than just protect himself.

Dana:

> And do we see Snape, do anything that truly risks his DE friends? 
I 
> do not think so or least not this time around. And no, Snape 
sending 
> the Order could not really be considered putting them at risk 
either, 
> because if Lucius had done the job properly, they would have been 
> gone already.> 
> Not sending the Order would also not have been an option because 
he 
> would have lost his cover with DD. Sure I do not think LV was 
happy, 
> Snape send them at all but I do not believe DD would have found it 
> very believable if Snape had done nothing after hearing Harry 
tried 
> to warn him besides it provided him with the perfect cover because 
> now he COULD blame it all on Harry (No, Harry was not really at 
risk 
> and he would indeed have lived to tell the tale, because it is not 
> difficult to imagine LV had ordered his DEs to leave Harry to him, 
> why would he otherwise go to the trouble of getting the prophecy, 
if 
> Harry was dead, what would he need it for). 
> 
 

Magpie:
Sending the Order did risk his DE friends, obviously. It got them 
all put in jail and attacked. I see no suggestion that not sending 
them *wasn't* an option. Saying so doesn't make it so. It just seems 
like that whole idea is made up to explain away stuff in the text 
that is a problem for LV!Snape, trying to both explain why Snape 
sent the Order because it's important while also claiming sending 
the Order wasn't important.

I'm not sure what he would be blaming on Harry there. Harry didn't 
warn Snape to send the Order to the MoM. He told him Sirius was 
there. All Snape had to do is make sure Sirius was okay. It seems 
like LV is more forgiving than DD here--LV would understand why 
Snape had to send the Order members who got his DEs captured while 
Dumbledore wouldn't forgive him for not sending them...even though 
this is all in response to Harry doing something Snape had no reason 
to know about. It seems to me that it would be a lot easier for 
Dumbledore to think "Snape didn't send the Order because he had no 
way of knowing Harry was no longer at Hogwarts" than for LV to 
say "Snape sent the Order because Dumbledore might think he had a 
chance of knowing Harry was no longer at Hogwarts."

Dana:
> It seems to me the personal risk is indeed very *personal* because 
it 
> only includes keeping Snape safe.

Magpie:
I don't think there's any doubt that "personal" means Snape. That's 
what Snape is doing by pretending to be a DE when he's not. If he's 
found out he will be killed. 

Dana:
Not bringing his DE friends in 
> danger, eliminates the risk of being considered a double crosser 
and 
> the DEs are much less forgiving then the Order (it doesn't matter 
if 
> Bella accuses him of this later because there is no proof Snape 
did 
> anything against LV and therefore he is off limits), of course we 
see 
> with Karkaroff how unforgiving LV really is.

Magpie:
But he did put his DE friends in danger. He sent the Order to the 
MoM and got them arrested and attacked. There's no indication that 
Dumbledore is ordering him to put DEs in danger as a matter of 
course. 

Dana:> 
> Snape pretty much hates every Order Member so one less is just one 
> less to hate. We do not see him go to any real trouble keeping 
anyone 
> of them safe, at least not at any *personal* risk. He does not 
seem 
> to provide them any information to keep them one step ahead of LV. 
At 
> least we do not see any Order activity after he (supposedly) 
> contacted Sirius. I do not believe Sirius would have set back and 
do 
> nothing but I do not mind anyone calling me biased ;)

Magpie:
I'm not sure what you're definition of "real trouble" is. None of 
the Order members have gone to any trouble to keep Snape safe 
either. Snape doesn't have to personally worry about every Order 
member. Snape has taken actions that contribute to the safety of 
people on the good side. We don't know what information he's giving 
them--why would you assume he's not giving them anything important? 
Just because he's not keeping them "one step ahead" of LV (which 
would not only make for a boring story, but would be unrealistic) 
doesn't mean he's not pulling his own weight. LV, too, seems to be 
okay with Snape not keeping him one step ahead of Dumbledore.

And question Snape's contacting Sirius? Sirius himself would know 
whether or not he was contacted, wouldn't he? And Are you suggesting 
also that Snape contacted Sirius because he thought that would make 
him go to the MoM? Snape can't be both expecting the Order to find 
nothing at the MoM and also trying to get Sirius killed by the DEs 
at the MoM.

Dana: 
> It seems to me that Snape's actions only include him keeping his 
> cover spotless, either by actively doing nothing or by doing 
> something that keeps him on both sides of the fence and when 
finally 
> someone is actually able to motivate him into real action, it is 
> against the Order.

Magpie:
He hasn't kept his cover spotless--not on the DE side. The've 
questioned the very inactivity and action for the other side you're 
describing, only for Dumbledore. He has taken action plenty of times 
in canon in situations that are, whether Harry likes it or not, on 
Harry's side. Even when he could have done nothing.

I'm not saying that Snape is definitely DDM and that he couldn't be 
LV!Snape, but it just seems like the definition for DDM!Snape here 
is exaggerated in ways LV!Snape is not. So LV!Snape can show his 
evilness by sending the Order to the MoM if we imagine he was hoping 
they'd show up too late, while DDM!Snape falls short if he hasn't 
shown personal distress over the fate of all the Order members, and 
openly proved loyalty to Harry in front of hostile witnesses, and 
worried when Harry's out of his sight for too long, even though all 
of these things go against Snape's character.

Neri:
As you say, the Order already knew Voldy was after the prophecy. You
didn't need to be a hotshot agent to figure that much out, and
security measures were taken against it. What the Order was lacking,
what a spy in the enemy camp could contribute, was precisely the
planned date of the operation, as well as the means. Since DDM!Snape
was not able to find that out his spying mission did not contribute
anything to the Order and was, in practice, worthless.

Magpie:
We don't actually know that the Order "already" knew that Voldemort 
was after the Prophecy. It's obvious to us because we read the book. 
It's certainly possible that that information came from Snape. 
Dumbledore knows as well as anyone where Snape is stationed--at 
Hogwarts--so why would he be part of a plan that's taking place 
elsewhere? 

As it is, Snape *does* find out the planned date of the operation 
and the means as well. He tells the Order about it, and they arrive 
to save Harry. Maybe they don't know as far in advance about the 
date as they might have wanted, but Snape does exactly what you're 
saying he's needed to do here. 

Neri:
If Snape realized immediately that an operation was underway, then he
should have also realized that Sirius could be only a false bait to
lure Harry to the DoM, and therefore the fact that Sirius was safe in
HQ did not in any way mean everything was fine. If Snape realized 
that an operation was underway he should have alerted the whole 
Order at once, tell them to send people to the DoM (the DEs could be 
captured) and above all locate Harry as fast as possible.

Magpie:
Who says nobody has considered this anyway, though? Isn't Sirius 
with more Order members after Snape's message? None of them know the 
very thing that Snape doesn't know, which is that Harry has left 
Hogwarts. Sirius has been contacted about the vision and is now with 
other people--why aren't they already on their way to the Order and 
trying to locate Harry? Probably for the same reason Snape isn't--
because Harry's location is not a mystery. He is at Hogwarts. Once 
that surprising piece of information that he isn't comes forth 
Snape...alerts the whole order at once and tells them to send people 
to the DoM. 

Neri:
Alerting the Order would take the same time it took checking if the
vision was genuine. Finding that the vision was not genuine does 
*not* mean an operation wasn't underway. In summary, Snape either 
failed to realize an operation was underway, or did realize it but 
failed to alert the Order immediately about it. And he was the spy 
who was supposed to discover what the enemy was scheming.

Magpie:
I thought everybody knew what the enemy was scheming. If Sirius 
knows Harry's been given a vision, that information has been passed 
on and the Order can act on it--aren't they already aware they need 
to watch the Prophecy room? They all have the information at this 
point, right? 

Neri:
As I was saying, during his the VW2 spying career we don't know about
a single item of information Snape managed to bring from the enemy
camp *to save the day*.

Magpie:
Didn't he bring the important information that Voldemort had 
targetted the Potters and possibly the Longbottoms? He didn't save 
the day due to Peter, but he did bring day-saving information. 
Beyond that, of course, we aren't reading the story of Snape and 
Dumbledore's plans against LV, so we can't say one way or the other 
what information Snape is bringing or not bringing. 

Neri:
Well, lets say DDM!Snape seems considerably more hypothetical now 
than he seemed after OotP. In fact, even the term DDM was only 
invented after HBP. 

Magpie:
Yes, because the killing of Dumbledore seems to be an act that makes 
Snape definitively ESE, enough to outweigh the previous DDM!Snape 
stuff.

Neri:
Like capturing eight DEs single-handed, or winning a
duel against Voldy (admittedly only by points, not KO), or uncovering
Voldy's most important secret, or finding and destroying a Horcrux. 
It is this kind of contributions that is so suspiciously absent from 
the file of secret agent Snape.

Magpie:
He wouldn't have won that battle or duel without Snape's telling him 
to get to the MoM. It's not surprising Snape has no such duels or 
battles himself, of course, since that's the nature of a spy. The 
most successful spies probably have no such glories on their resume. 

Neri:
Besides, Dumbledore at least has the decency to be nice, polite, and
admit to mistakes once in a while. And when Dumbledore makes a really
critical mistake he gets killed. When DDM!Snape makes a critical
mistake someone else gets killed.

Magpie:
Actually, Dumbledore's critical mistakes have gotten other people 
killed too, among other things. The stakes are pretty high. Snape 
hasn't gotten himself killed yet, but neither had Dumbledore until 
he died.

Neri:
Another long list of excuses, but DDM!Snape was deeply involved in 
the Draco affair from the beginning, and the bottom line is that and 
he failed in preventing the consequences. Again.

Magpie:
It's not a long list of excuses so much as what the situation was-- 
it seemed like you were describing it differently. Snape did fail to 
prevent the consequences, but so did Dumbledore. Again. Snape and 
Dumbledore were both obviously taking a huge gamble in the Draco 
storyline--Dumbledore says as much. I think we're meant to be 
frustrated at everything going pear-shaped, but Snape isn't any more 
incompetent than anybody else in the series. Only when compared to a 
version of Snape who's made to make everything come out differently.

Neri:
Another long list of excuses, but DDM!Snape was deeply involved in 
the Draco affair from the beginning, and the bottom line is that and 
he failed in preventing the consequences. Again.

Magpie:
They can all be partial failures. Again. Seems like this is a 
situation the books have embraced since the beginning.

Neri:
The werewolves didn't attack Harry or Hogwarts yet. The DEs did, 
twice in two books. Imagine that the werewolves would have attacked 
while Lupin was sitting oblivious in his office, or behaving as if 
nothing of importance had happened for several hours, and Snape got 
killed in the attack while bravely defending Harry. I suspect we'd 
have hundreds of threads in HPfGU about Lupin's incompetence.

Magpie:
We no doubt would have threads about Lupin's incompetence, but JKR 
still might have written it specifically so that Lupin was unable to 
stop it. My point in HBP is that it's not written so that it all 
hinges on Snape and Dumbledore being idiots. It hinges on them 
making mistakes and being surprised by the younger generation who 
aren't as predictable as the older one thinks it is and things they 
don't know and being too arrogant about their (or Dumbledore's) own 
plans.

Neri:
Ah, now we're getting somewhere. The really interesting question is
how to explain Snape's strange behavior in the end of OotP *in light
of what we know post-HBP*. Forget what you believed before HBP, what
seemed likely then and what didn't seem likely. Major things have
changed and it's time for reassessment. The fact that Dumbledore was
vouching for Snape counts now much less than it counted pre-HBP (he
was also vouching for Snape in the end of HBP and minutes later was
AKed off the astronomy tower). 

Magpie:
Actually, I think Dumbledore's vouching for Snape is as important as 
ever, as is the mysterious reason for *why* he vouched for him.

Neri:
It appears highly suspicious that Dumbledore makes things appear 
like everybody in the Order had acted "at once" (he repeats this 
expression three times within half a page!) while canon clearly 
shows that several hours must have passed. 

Magpie:
Didn't he say that when Harry didn't come back from the forest (that 
part referring to the "several hours") that he notified the order 
and that's when they all acted at once? I admit I go with a Flint on 
this one and dramatic stuff with the dawn and all that.

Neri:
How does Snape's behavior during that night look like?

As you correctly points out, it doesn't look like LVM!Snape. Neither
does it look like a DDM!Snape. Snape's behavior here is contradictory
(what else is new...). At first he's totally cool with what's
happening, and several hours later he sends the Order to the DoM. One
explanation could be that he's slow on the uptake, but I don't think
this is so. 

Magpie:
But it does look like DDM!Snape to me. He is cool with what's 
happening because Harry's at Hogwarts and Sirius is at Grimmauld 
Place. When one of those things doesn't seem to be true, he gets in 
touch with the Order again. It's just hard for me to ever see 
Snape's behavior as wrong in this sequence (it can be slow-witted or 
whatever, but not LV!Snape-ish) because the whole rescue of Harry 
hinges on it. To me it's like looking at Snape killing Dumbledore 
and saying, "It doesn't look like DDM!Snape--but it doesn't look 
like LV!Snape either." When to me it *does* look like LV!Snape. 
(Although I suspect that will turn out to be a false impression--but 
I could be wrong.)

Debi:
A Stag, the same animal that Harry's is. This is where James got the
nickname "Prongs"

Magpie:
No, that's his animagus form. Not his Patronus.

bboyminn:

But I do want to make one correction, JKR /never/ said
Petunia wasn't a witch. She said she wasn't a Squib and
later said that Petunia never had and never would do
magic. But again, she never flat our said Petunia
wasn't a witch.

Magpie:
She said she was A MUGGLE. Flat-out. 

-m