Snape the Spy (WAS Re: Who was responsible for Sirius' death? ...)

[Dana]

No: HPFGUIDX 167732

houyhnhnm:
> Harry doesn't know that Snape went back to LV when he 
> comes to GP in August.  Where are you getting that?
<snip>

Gof pg 619 UKed Paperback

'Severus,' said Dumbledore, turning to Snape, "you know what I must 
ask you to do. If you are ready... If you are prepared...'

'I am', said Snape.

End quote from canon.

This was in front of Harry in the hospital wing. Do you really think 
Harry is too stupid to understand what DD is asking of Snape? He is 
not sending Snape to gather Order Members because he has just send 
Sirius to do that. And he just witnessed Snape show Fudge his Dark 
Mark. 

OotP pg 79 UKed Paperback

`At least you've known what's been going on,' he (Harry) said 
bracingly.

`Oh yeah,' said Sirius sarcastically. Listening to Snape's reports, 
having to take all his snide hints that he's out there risking his 
life while I'm sat on my backside here having a nice comfortable time


End Quote canon 

Sirius already mentions Snape is giving reports so Lupin could just 
have mentioned one of these reports gave the Order some very 
interesting information on what LV planning on next. 

First both of Sirius and Lupin say this about LV's activity.

Pg 87/88 Uked Paperback

`That's because there haven't been any funny death yet', said 
Sirius, `not as far as we know, anyway 
 and we know quite a lot.' 

`More then he thinks we do, anyway,' said Lupin.

So what has the Order been doing?' said Harry, looking around at them 
all.

`Working as hard as we can to make sure Voldermort *can't carry out 
his plans*,' said Sirius.

`How d'you know what his plans are?' Harry asked quickly.

Dumbledore's got a shrewd idea, said Lupin, and Dumbledore's shrewd 
ideas normally turn out to be accurate.'

End quote canon.

Then at the second occlumency lesson (or at least the one on page) 
Snape says this to Harry (please don't forget no one mentioned to 
Harry Snape was spying on LV)

Pg 521 UK

`That is just as well Potter,'said Snape coldly, `because you are 
neither special nor important, and it is not up to you to find out 
what the Dark Lord is saying to his Death Eaters.'

No- that's *your job*, isn't it? Harry shot at him

End quote canon.

Lupin doesn't have to say anything about the prophecy but he could 
have stated that DD has ways to gather information about LV's 
movement but he doesn't. Sirius mentions they have spies on the MoM 
and Dung hears things others do not but what is the big secret of 
having someone finding out information from LV's inner circles but 
there is not even a hint of the information coming from Snape, while 
just before it is openly mentioned Snape is giving reports to the 
Order.  

And then DD makes no uses of it to make Harry see Snape has been 
working for the Order, at great risk to his own life, to keep the 
Order informed about LV's movements either after the DoM ordeal. He 
only states that Snape told him Harry was dreaming about the DoM, it 
is even funny that DD claims Snape *discovered* this (pg 730 UK) but 
Harry tells him that he has been having dreams about it for months 
after seeing himself with Arthur going to the hearing in the first 
occlumency lesson (pg 474 UK) but still this adds nothing because it 
was after the attack on Arthur.  

Then he states that he *believed* it could not be long before 
Voldemort attempted to force his way into your mind, to manipulate 
and misdirect your thoughts (pg 729 UK). He thought LV would use 
Harry as a spy on DD himself and he feared that he might try to 
posses Harry. He never states that he thought LV would try to get the 
prophecy through Harry. It was also not Snape that made DD aware of 
this by mentioning the dreams but Sirius when he told DD what Harry 
had told him about the night the snake attacked. 

It was also Harry's own information about Rookwood telling LV about 
the protection on the prophecy that Snape tells to DD. DD never 
mentioned Snape giving any important information directly from LV 
himself, just information about what Harry was dreaming. Nothing and 
then goes on about Snape's actions of that night. 

Snape is supposed to be the spy on LV not on Harry. The only 
information we actually see Snape has that we know must have come 
directly from Lucius is about him seeing Padfoot on the platform but 
otherwise information to keep ahead on LV's plans seemed to be 
totally absent. 

We see that LV getting really happy about something right after 
Christmas and we see through Harry that Rookwood has told him about 
the protection on the prophecy and why Bode could not get it for LV. 
We hear him tell Rookwood that it doesn't matter because they will 
start over with a new plan. My estimation is that this is in February 
after the DEs escape from Azkaban but somehow we have to believe that 
Snape never was able to get this information between February and 
June. Or if he did tell then we have to believe the Order 
collectively thought no action is needed because Harry can't get to 
the DoM anyway. I really doubt the Order operates in this way while 
we see Sirius tell that they are working so hard to prevent LV from 
working out his plans. 

DD is not all knowing but he does know that it was the prophecy, an 
incomplete one, that sent LV to GH and after his inability to kill 
Harry in GoF, it is not hard to imagine that he wanted to know more 
about it, so that he would have the knowledge to destroy the one, 
which the prophecy told him could destroy him. You do not have to be 
a rocket scientist to figure this out.  

Snape does give information so he might have confirmed it because it 
would not be information that would harm his cover. Nothing we see 
the Order do seem to be on information that they could have gotten 
conclusively from Snape and that is worrisome for someone supposed to 
be spying on LV for the side of good to not being able to retrieve 
any information to prevent big events from occurring. Not even when 
the plan is set in motion does this so-called spy find it necessary 
to alert the Order at once and make them take preventive measures. 

On the other hand we do see LV act on information that he could have 
gotten conclusively from Snape for instance like there being no one 
but himself to protect Harry at Hogwarts. 

> wynnleaf
> You are not taking into account the real problems of spying.
> 
> In real wars, spies often discover information about future attacks 
> or other actions that will take lives.  However, unless the 
> commanders of the war can find alternative ways in which the enemy 
> can assume they came by the information, they often will *not* act 
> on that information, because to do so would reveal the source of 
> their information to the enemy.  For instance, there are cases in 
> WWII where the allies broke secret codes and discovered information 
> about attacks, but would do nothing to counter those attacks 
because 
> they didn't want to reveal to the enemy that the code had been 
> broken, otherwise the enemy would change the code.  Sorry -- it's a 
> hard truth, but that's the way it is.  Same goes for spies.  If you 
> act on knowledge that you could have only obtained from your spy, 
> then you may be revealing to the enemy where the knowledge came 
> from. 
<snip> 

Dana: 

I think you are a little confused on what a spy is supposed to be 
for. An army uses spies to get the necessary intelligence to be able 
to know what the enemy is doing and what they are planning next and 
with that information you built up your strategies in order to be 
able to win the war. The only difference between real time spies and 
those used in the Harry Potterverse is that you have enemy lines and 
enemy occupied areas which is not the case in Harry Potter, which 
means that the information you get from your spy is at much less risk 
to be found out and therefore your spy can carry on with his or her 
work. That doesn't mean that you will ever order your spy to withhold 
information important to your side because that could lead you to 
defeat and if a spy does that on purpose to safe his own skin then he 
will be called a deserter and risk being executed for it. If the 
information is so important but the spy can no longer maintain his 
cover then you pull the spy out because the information he can bring 
you is always more important and in real war you just insert a new 
spy on the same job. Spies will never ever conceal their sources to 
the one they are working for that is only in law enforcement not in 
war situation as you want to know if the information that is relayed 
to you is reliable to use for your own operation. 

It seems you dedicate the idea of spy to be someone from the enemy 
camp, not someone you have brought in from the outside. This is 
entirely different. 

Commanders that purposely do not use the information because they 
believe no acting on it will have an advantage in the situation like 
is said about the Pearle Harbor attacks are not because the 
intelligence was withheld but because the Commander felt not acting 
on it would win public support to become actively involved in the 
war, it is still very controversial and the people who's family 
members got killed that they could not really appreciate it. But I do 
not think JKR was aiming for Snape's information not being used for 
this purpose but who knows maybe DD did want to get ride of Sirius 
and risk LV getting his hands on the prophecy.  

The main problem is that many people romanticize what is referred to 
as a double agent. Double agents are not what many of you think 
someone that infiltrates the enemy camp to spy on enemy activity, 
which is what is called a normal spy. When the military refers to 
someone being a double spy then it is always someone they caught 
belonging to the enemy camp that they force to work for them and most 
often then not, a double spy double crosses the party by which they 
are forced to be working for. They pretend to work for the side that 
but they actually work for the other. They do not work for both. 

In the coldwar the use of double spies let too many disasters because 
the spy purposely gave both sides misinformation. 

There is no confusion about Snape being a double spy but for which 
side is he *pretending* to work and for which side is he working for 
real. Or maybe Snape is not working as a spy at all but just 
pretending to be one and gives neither side information to act on but 
when you take a real close look at canon then it appears LV's side 
has the advantage, so in the least it doesn't seem information on 
their activities is leaking out. JMHO

Dana