An Analysis of the Skirmish at Hogwarts with some Potentially Surprises

[Goddlefrood]

No: HPFGUIDX 168056

Goddlefrood presents what's in the title ;-):

All quotes throughout are from the Bloomsbury Hardback Edition 
of HBP. I will give page numbers only and those will only change 
where pages change, otherwise accept that the page number is the 
same as the one that immediately precedes any quote. 

The Chapters involved are 27, 28, 29 and 30. This account will 
just involve the action inside the school building, not the 
portion in the grounds, which is relatively straightforward to 
follow, IMO, and is all from Harry's PoV.

The implications of some of the things that happen in the 
grounds are not straightforward, but will not concern me in 
this post. It also would add nothing to my account as what I 
want to try to discern is how many DEs may have been involved 
altogether (I will exclude Snape from the tally when I get to 
it, but only randomly and for no better reason than he has been 
discussed quite a little lately ;)). Also I hope it makes some 
sense of who did what and when.

The numbers in brackets throughout are points in the narrative 
where other witness testimony is to be given, and will be after 
the skirmish from Harry's PoV between leaving Hogsmeade and 
exiting Hogwarts Castle building has been gone through. Also 
I will add in the beginning of the skirmish, which is the 
arrival of the DEs through the cabinets after Harry's PoV has 
been dealt with.

I will not attempt to name each of the Death Eaters, that 
has been discussed by me and many others here before (if 
interested, though Ludovic Bagman, Goyle Snr. and Otto Bagman 
have been suggested and argued for as the blond Death Eater 
[there may be other candidates or it could be someone we have 
not met], while many think Alecto and Amycus are the Carrows 
and brutal face is Yaxley). If asked on these points in 
brackets I'll dig out the thread and relevant posts of both 
myself and several others and note it in a response, if any 
is thought needed :). The stated reasons for this post are 
above.

-----------------------

As Harry and Dumbledore arrive back in Hogsmeade Madam Rosmerta 
points out the Dark Mark above the school. They immediately set 
off on brooms, taking just a matter of a few minutes, maybe 3 
or 4 to get to the top of the Astronomy Tower and dismount. (1) 

Draco comes up the staircase at the same moment Harry had been 
sent for help, disarms DD, who in turn freezes Harry, as Harry 
posits. This might be a further 30 seconds or less. 

They talk for say 2 or 3 minutes until Harry hears a muffled 
yell from below, which causes Draco to pause and look round 
and to remain silent listening to the kerfuffle below for some 
moments (p. 547). (2)

When the conversation between Draco and DD resumes and after a 
brief exchange relative to other matters Draco gives us some 
information as to how the Death Eaters came to Hogwarts, he 
says:

'I had to mend that broken Vanishing Cabinet that no one's used 
for years. The one Montague got lost in last year.' (p. 548)

The pair of which is in Borgin and Burkes, and through which the 
Death Eaters arrived at Hogwarts in the Room of Requirement. (3)

Two pages later, so perhaps 1 or 2 minutes, there is 'another 
yell from below, rather louder than the last' (p. 550), and 
again after a similar period 'There was a bang and shouts from 
below, louder than ever, it sounded as though people were 
fighting on the actual spiral staircase 
' (p. 552), another 
1 or 2 minutes. (4) + (5)

On p. 553 the Death Eaters, brutal face, Alecto and Amycus 
and Greyback appear, another minute, if the page a minute 
analogy is thought apt. (6)

These four engage with Dumbledore and then on p. 555 yet 
another sound of scuffling is noted from below and someone 
shouts 'They've blocked the stairs - Reducto! REDUCTO!'. The 
barrier is assumed by Harry to have been put in place by one 
of the four new arrivals to prevent Order members or DA 
members following them. 1 or 2 more minutes there. (7)

Brutal-face prevents Greyback from killing DD and blasts him 
out of the way with a spell that emits a flash of light, no 
colour given :(.  Snape then appears and does what he does 
very soon thereafter and then the chapter ends (p. 556). This 
might all be about a further minute. (8)

I'm taking about 30 seconds to 1 minute per page at this point 
due to the amount of continuous narrative and conversation 
during Chapter 27, when evidence from the other two relevant 
chapters is presented then this will change :).

The next chapter continues the narrative; the evidence of what 
all the above noted matters are about is a little way off. I'll 
wrap this account of the skirmish from Harry's PoV up and then 
try to fit the statements about what was going on before and 
after Harry arrived on the tower with DD to that.

Snape says 'Out of here, quickly,' (p. 557) and he, Draco and 
the 4 DEs proceed away. The brutal-faced one is at the back, 
is petrified by Harry and later picked up by the MoM (one good 
thing they do, mop up ;) [p. 604] ). Harry then follows, 
stepping over the prone figure. (9)

Once he reaches the bottom of the staircase he is surrounded 
by confusion 'a battle was raging before him' (p. 558). There 
is no time from Harry's PoV to immediately discern what is 
going on and he is, in any event, focused on Snape, who he 
sees rounding a corner ahead. Before he can catch up he is 
accosted by Greyback but Greyback is then stunned and Harry 
pushes off the limp werewolf and carries on his chase of 
Snape. Immediately he encounters two bodies (one not dead :)). 
(10) + (11)

He does not stop to investigate as Ginny catches his eye (if 
she hadn't earlier ;)). She is noted to be in combat with 
Amycus. Harry casts Impedimenta at Amycus who slams into the 
wall and slides down it :-?, falling out of sight.

Ron, McGonagall and Lupin are then seen in combat, 'each of 
whom was battling a separate Death Eater', and Tonks is noted 
as fighting the 'enormous blond wizard'. (12)

Ginny queries Harry, but Harry does not respond, thinking only 
of his belief that he must not let Snape escape. At this point 
it seems clear that the DE with whom McGonagall was duelling 
was Alecto (p. 559), who sprints :-? off down the corridor, 
'her brother right behind her'. As Harry begins to chase again 
Neville is met and Harry, after a reassurance from Neville, 
casts a hex at the enormous blond DE, which has the effect of 
making this DE howl in pain and starts to run away (hoorah!).

It's Harry's turn to sprint now ;), but there are noted as 
being 'bangs issuing from behind him, the yells of the others 
to come back, and the mute call of the figures on the ground' 
(13)

Harry's next thought is that Snape et al are heading back to 
the Room of Requirement, but he soon realises, based on a 
bloody footprint, that the escapees are heading to the front 
door and not to the RoR. A curse is noted as flying past him, 
but whether from in front or from behind is not stated. His 
intuition re the bloody footprint is now confirmed when he 
sees Alecto and Amycus running down the staircase ahead. 

Harry takes a shortcut, the same staircase that played a 
large part in "The Egg and The Eye" in GoF, and reaches the 
second floor before yelling 'Out of the way!' (p. 560) to some 
Hufflepuffs and going on down the marble staircase from where 
he notes the entrance doors have been blasted open. (For what 
it may be worth I believe the blasting open of the door would 
have been the matter that awoke all the other students, they 
may have sprinted to where they are noted as having been ;)). 
It could equally well have been the blast that unblocked the 
staircase to the tower.

Harry exits the castle after the escapees have already done 
so ahead of him while causing some injuries to other students, 
some of whom had congregated in the Entrance Hall. This whole 
action from Harry leaving the tower to his exiting the front 
doors takes perhaps a total of 10 minutes, certainly no more. 
End of this portion, as stated above. Altogether then from 
Hogsmeade to exiting the castle would be between 19 minutes 
and 25 minutes. The skirmish lasted probably 5 more minutes 
before the events Harry noted as happening, so I'll round it 
out at 30 minutes from the DEs arrival in the RoR to the time 
Harry exits the front door. It could be up to 10 minutes less, 
but the timing is not crucial to this post, important, but not 
crucial.

---------------------------

I'll resume from the point where the narrative reaches Harry 
getting taken to the hospital wing by Ginny to hear accounts 
from others of what was going on, after that I will give my 
explanation for points 1-13 above :). 

First this earlier evidence from Malfoy (p. 551):

'Someone's dead,' said Malfoy and his voice seemed to go up an 
octave as he said it. 'One of your people 
 I don't know who, 
it was dark 
 I stepped over the body 
 I was supposed to be 
waiting up here when you got back, only your Phoenix lot got 
in the way 
'

Ginny confirms that this supposed dead body was Bill Weasley 
(p. 571), who is alive but scarred, and that will be of 
interest for divination students to ascertain what those 
cursed scars may do to Bill, I personally believe dittany 
will be involved ;) (Madam Pomfrey appears sadly unaware 
of this miracle herb (p. 572). Neville and Professor 
Filius Flitwick are noted as being on the road to recovery 
and Harry is reassured that no one from either the Order 
or DA has been killed. At this point we also get confirmation 
that a DE is dead from a Killing Curse cast by the 'huge 
blond one'.

At the point before the DEs arrive Ron, Ginny and Neville are 
outside the RoR and Hermione with Luna proximate to Snape's 
dungeon office. Order members were patrolling corridors on 
DD's orders; they were Minerva, Remus, Bill and Nymphadora 
in Minerva's words 'Every secret passageway out of the school 
was covered' (p. 575)

The evidence from the other witnesses to the skirmish itself 
also begins on p. 575 with Minerva again (but actually earlier 
than the above) who says she 'sent Filius to fetch Snape 
tonight' she goes on to say she didn't think Snape 'knew why 
they were coming' (Tut, tut Minerva ;)).

Back to Ginny on p. 576, after Ron admits Draco got past
himself and the other two (but Draco may have been there 
already) she says 'He came out of the Room about an hour 
after we started keeping watch 
 he was on his own, clutching 
that awful shrivelled arm -'. He throws Peruvian Darkness 
Powder to obscure things and the three guards only are able 
to hear people rushing past them. 

Lupin picks up the story and says 'we found the Death Eaters 
minutes later, heading in the direction of the Astronomy 
Tower.' A short exchange then occurred and Gibbon ran up the 
Tower to cast the Dark Mark that is later seen by Harry and 
DD from Hogsmeade, but in an earlier chapter. Almost as soon 
as Gibbon came back down a Killing Curse hit him that Remus 
says 'just missed me.' (p. 577).

Hermione is the next pertinent witness, she mentions it's 
being 'nearly midnight when Professor Flitwick came sprinting 
:) to the dungeons.'. Some talk and a loud thump are heard 
and Snape comes out of his office to ask Hermione and Luna 
to attend to Filius, these two young ladies take no part in 
the skirmish above them.

Nymphadora is my next witness (p. 578) she admits to the 
skirmish not going in favour of the Order and DA, Gibbon 
was dead and Bill was down, savaged by Greyback. Malfoy 
had got past and gone up the tower without Tonks noting 
exactly when. She also corroborates Harry's intuition that 
one of the 4 DEs to go up the tower cast the blockade on 
the bottom of the staircase on their way up. Neville had 
run at this blockade and 'got thrown up into the air -'

Ron now, he says the massive DE was still in the fray by 
the staircase entrance 'firing off jinxes all over the 
place'. Tonks by what she says shows that Snape went 
straight through the fray and up the staircase without 
hindrance.

Back to Remus (p. 579), he says the big DE 'had just fired 
off a hex that caused half the ceiling to fall in, and also 
broke the curse blocking the stairs' shortly after which 
'Snape and the boy emerged out of the dust - obviously none 
of us attacked them -' (Tut, tut, Remus ;))

Tonks confirms the other DEs and Greyback (suggestive perhaps 
of his not being one in her opinion?) from the tower came 
very soon after and rejoined the melee.

These above statements appear to me to be relevant for my 
purposes. The next tranche contains some logical conclusions 
drawn from them and some speculation, but not a great deal ;)

----------------------

(1) Point 1 as noted earlier I believe coincides with the point 
where the Order members catch up with the DEs. Draco is notably 
absent, having gone on ahead to the tower.

(2) I believe this to be where Bill is being attacked, it would 
not fit with being Gibbon as that occurred earlier, due to 
Gibbon's having come back down from the tower some time before 
Harry and DD arrived. The muffled yell could also just be 
someone being hit by a curse from the blond DE.

The thing about this that struck me as a little odd was that 
if it is accepted, as many do, that Draco, the 4 DEs and Snape 
are otherwise engaged, then it doesn't seem likely that only 
one DE could hold off Minerva, Tonks, Remus, Neville, Ginny 
and Ron on his own. I'll get back to this shortly :)

(3) The point at which the DEs and Draco arrive is clear from 
the testimony of Ron and Ginny in the previous portion, perhaps 
about 5 minutes or less before the Dark Mark is seen from 
Hogsmeade that is.

(4) This is unexplained by the testimony, but is probably 
merely someone being hit by a curse, possibly Neville.

(5) This one, IMO, is clearly *not* where the blond Death 
Eater blasts away the ceiling and removes the blockade from 
the staircase. The blockade, then, as well as barring entry 
to non Death Eaters also appears to muffle sound a little :) 
It must be something else that is not accounted for as at 
the point where it is noted in the narrative the crew with 
Draco have not yet reached the top of the tower. Number 5 
must, therefore, be one of the other ill aimed hexes or curses 
cast by the blond one, perhaps an AK that careened into a wall.

(6) Tonks, as noted in the previous portion also, confirms 
the point at which Greyback and the 3 DEs left the fray to 
go up the staircase.

(7) This would be where Neville and others are trying to get 
through the blockade, quite easy really ;).

(8) The skirmish below is continuing, no more nor less.

(9) The point at which Snape et al leave the tower is noted 
in Remus's testimony above.

(10) This is simply the point at which Harry reaches the 
bottom of the stairs, sorry of any revelations were thought 
to be forthcoming :)

(11) The two bodies Harry notes should be Bill and Gibbon 
I believe.

(12) This bit is interesting. Snape and Draco have gone 
ahead remember, which at that point leaves only Alecto, 
Amycus and the blond DE standing. There are four fights 
going on altogether, each with separate pairings. One is 
McGonagall / Alecto another Tonks / blond DE. Amycus has 
been Impedimenta (ed) shortly before by Harry.  Greyback 
had been petrified and notably does not fight with a wand 
anyway, or so we have been led to believe.

Who then could be fighting Remus and Ron? There should be 
two more, who are they? I believe I am right in concluding 
then, that there were two more DEs present other than those 
named or described. If correct the total number of crew with 
Draco would be a total of 7, not coincidentally LV's least 
favourite number ;) (Alecto, Amycus, Greyback, brutal face, 
big blond and these two others). This does not include Snape 
as noted earlier, he certainly was at Hogwarts already but 
he did not engage in any duelling inside the castle.

What could have become of these two? Well, like Greyback, 
who possibly escaped, they could have gone back through the 
RoR route when the guard was no longer there, which it seems 
it was not after the action started. Or they could have got 
out by another route, or, perhaps bizarrely they could have 
been at Hogwarts already. Either that or it's another instance 
of JKR not doing her sums and planning terribly well.

What I do know for an absolute certainty is that brutal face 
and big blond are two separate DEs, unlike certain places I 
could mention, but won't :)

(13) The bangs Harry hears behind him must also, IMO come from 
these other two or possibly only from Greyback if he had awoken 
by then, which seems unlikely. Or at a real stretch one of the 
Order or DA members could have been continuing a fight amongst 
themselves, as some here would surely speculate (I don't yet :>). 
The others yelling for him to come back are the remaining Order 
members and DA members. The moans of people on the ground would 
be Neville, Bill and maybe Greyback.

So there you have it, I hope it makes sense.

Goddlefrood who signs out by saying simply, and completely 
unrelatedly, that the code of the schoolyard is unwritten 
and informal and applies equally I any kind of school in 
the UK, afaik. It also means never sneak on anyone, no matter 
who they may be, if that was unclear, I thought it had been :)