Back to The Plan (Was:Re: Father Figures)

[justcarol67]

No: HPFGUIDX 164807

Carol earlier:
> Still, in light of what actually did happen (and possibly the death
of Sirius Black after all Lupin went through to prove him innocent to
HRH), I can see why [Lupin would] be unhappy with himself. If only
he'd just explained everything to Dumbledore in the first place. DD
would have talked to Black, found out about Scabbers, had Pettigrew
arrested, and Voldie would still be vapor. 
> 
> Annemehr:
> Well okay, but *if* DD would have wanted to *prevent* LV regaining a 
> physical body, by preventing Pettigrew's escape, then why isn't LV a 
> vapor *now,* when he so easily could be? <snip>

Carol responds:
Sorry to be unclear. I was trying to present what I see as Lupin's
perspective, his realization that his actions (and persistent
inaction) in PoA had undesirable consequences. If he's dwelling on if
only's and might-have-beens, on his mistakes and misjudgments, he may
be trying to punish himself for those rather than for being a
werewolf, if indeed he's trying to punish himself at all. Like Snape,
I'm not at all sure what goes on in Lupin's mind, but I'm considering
why he *might* (not necessarily *would*) be unhappy with himself.

But, uh, erm, I don't understand what Dumbledore has to do with it,
except in terms of what Lupin may think might have happened "if only"
he hadn't rushed out without taking his potion, "if only" he'd told
Dumbledore the whole truth about Sirius Black from the moment of his
arrival at the school. And if he'd turned in the Marauder's Map, the
whole incident would not have happened because he wouldn't have been
looking for HRH and spotted Pettigrew instead.

I also really don't understand your question. Let me try to figure
this out. You think that if Lupin had confided the truth to Dumbledore
(which I think, or hope, he regrets not doing), that Dumbledore would
have questioned Sirius Black (which I also think) and discovered the
truth about Pettigrew. Okay, I'm with you so far. All we have to do is
have Dumbledore rather than Black and Lupin bring Scabbers back to
human form, hear the whole story, and call in Fudge to take the right
person back to Azkaban, pending a trial, and Sirius Black gets a
pardon and a chance at a normal life. No need for Harry to prevent
James's friends from committing murder. No opportunity for Pettigrew
to escape to Voldemort. Of course, in terms of the story, especially
GoF, Pettigrew's escape is absolutely essential. But why would
*Dumbledore* want it to happen?

Annemehr:
> So, DD is not too noble to kill the likes of Voldemort. And, DD was
at least pretty certain that if he had tried to kill LV in that MoM
duel, he would merely have returned him to the vapor state. Everything
could have returned to pre-GoF conditions, except for Sirius's death.
 Yet, DD did not do it.

Carol:
Why didn't Dumbledore vaporize LV in the MoM? (Not that the question
has anything to do with my point on Lupin's possible regrets, but,
okay. I'll answer.) As you say, he knew about the Horcruxes, but I
don't think that's all there is to it. I *do* think DD is "above such
brutality" since, unlike Harry, who can use Love, he'd have to use an
Unforgiveable Curse to kill LV--but the attempt would be futile,
anyway, since LV wouldn't be killed. DD also knows that it's Harry's
job, not his, to destroy Voldemort. 

Leaving LV as a vapor in PoA would have bought DD and Harry some time.
Now, however, it's pointless. Vaporizing him would start the whole
process over again. It would give away the Horcrux secret (everyone
from Fudge to Harry would know that something is preventing LV from
dying, not once but twice). DD doesn't want LV to know that he knows
about the Horcruxes, so he lets him think that his nobility is the
primary reason for not killing him rather than a secondary one. But
vaporizing him at this late date is pointless. He wants the WW to know
that Voldemort has returned, that he's responsible for Cedric's
murder, that he has followers now (as he didn't in PoA, when he was
"alone and friendless." Wormtail and Voldie's other followers, not all
of whom have been arrested, would just restore him again, using
someone other than Harry to provide the blood. Nope. Too late to
vaporize him now. Revaporizing him in OoP would be different from
keeping him as a vapor in PoA. Time to send Harry after the Horcruxes,
and the sooner, the better.

Annemehr: 
> Why wouldn't DD do it?
> 
> The inescapable conclusion is that DD *wants* LV to have a body
these days.  

Carol:
Not at all "inescapable," as I've just shown. Wanting him to have a
body, or accepting the necessity of his having a body, in OoP, after
the murders in GoF (not just Cedric but Bertha and a poor old Muggle
that the WW doesn't care about and, indirectly, Mr. Crouch) is
different from wanting him to have a body in PoA. Surely, Dumbledore
would have preferred matters to remain as they were in Cos and PoA,
with Voldie posing a remote and future threat rather than the actual
danger he presents in GoF through HBP. The only life lost in SS/PS is
Quirrell's. No life is lost in Cos or PoA. I've listed the deaths in
GoF. In OoP, we have Bode, killed by a potted plant by a DE on
Voldemort's orders, and Sirius Black, killed by a DE thanks to
Voldemort's MoM plot. In HBP, we have not only those "collateral
deaths" but Dumbledore himself, who would be very much alive if Lupin
had only told DD what he knew about Sirius Black, preventing the
escape of Wormtail and the restoration of Voldemort to his body.

Annemehr:
It *has* to be part of the Plan -- that Plan that we *still* don't
know, and which inevitably entails the cost of the many collateral
deaths we read about in HBP.
> 
> And, given that, it's also reasonable to conclude that Pettigrew was
supposed to escape.

Carol:
Oh, I think there's a plan all right, but it mostly involves Harry and
Snape, but it could have been implemented later and more effectively
if Wormtail had not escaped, ending the respite the WW had enjoyed
since Godric's Hollow. I don't see collateral deaths as part of the
plan. Instead, they're an unfortunate consequence of Voldie's return
to his body, which DD can't undo without starting the process over
again. Now, at least, Fudge and the WW know what they're facing if
Voldemort is not destroyed. Unfortunately, thanks to Wormtail's
escape, they, and Harry, are facing those consequences years or even
decades sooner than they might have done if Lupin had only told DD
what he knew about Sirius Black. (And no. I'm not blaming Lupin for
the unforeseen consequences of his unfortunate actions and inactions.
If I blame anybody, it's Voldie for casting the DADA curse.)
> 
Annemehr:
> saying, it's Guilty!DD, I'm telling you...

Carol:
Even if DD wanted Wormtail to escape as you suggest, how could he
possibly have known that Wormtail, regarded by everyone as hopeless at
magic, could possibly restore Voldemort to physical form? He hadn't
heard Trelawney's second prophecy, which didn't occur until the night
before Wormtail's escape. And until that night, DD, like everyone
else, thought that PP was dead and that Sirius Black was his murderer.

Carol, who never dreamed that her suggestion about Lupin's possible
regrets would spawn a Guilty!DD thread!