Why DD did not ask Snape to kill him. (extremely long)

[Dana]

No: HPFGUIDX 165966

houyhnhnm:
>
> Your ellipsis in the portion of "Spinner's End" quoted above leaves out a couple of things that I feel may be fairly important to the interpretation of what exactly is going on in that scene.

Dana now:

I was not trying to downplay the importance of the entire scene. I just used this specific part to see if it could be determined who (DD or LV) he (Snape) was referring to, in his assessment about what might be expected of him.

And with the addition of the sentence: - 'I think', to me indicates that, at that particular time, there was no arrangement of any sort.  He had not received any particular orders from either one. He just *thought* it would be expected of him in the future. If he is taking a vow as part of a grand plan, why is he uncertain? And if he is uncertain, then why base his actions on this? If there is no plan then why agree to something so definitive, that it will influence ever decision you have to make afterwards?

houyhnhnm:
<snip>
> These two factors make it perfectly plausible to me that Snape's first objective was to neutralize the threat posed by Bellatrix, and once he was secure of that, <snip>  At least I see nothing that contradicts such an interpretation.

Dana now:
A devoted DE, like Bellatrix, is always a potential threat, even if the situation at hand is controlled. She might not actively go to LV to verify Snape's tale, but she will take any opportunity if it presents itself.  And we see she actually does by talking to Draco. By goading Bella, he lost control over Draco. And just as much as she cannot rat him out for being part of the UV, neither can he.

So the control over Bella is extremely limited as far as I can tell, and this makes telling lies to a person desperate for the favour of her Master, extremely dangerous. Better not leave things to chance by using something that can be verified. Not being able to call her Master on his skills directly, does not mean there will be no opportunities to seed doubts in LV's trust in Snape in the future.

Especially if she can work herself up again by doing so. Anything you say can be used against you, and even for a clever liar like Snape, this will be ever so true. He might be able to support a lie by means of occlumency but it will not help him control the truth if it's right under their noses.

houyhnhnm:
> But I see little in that chapter of certain information <snip>

Dana now:
This chapter is extremely important, because whatever kind of Snape you want to support, the answers are in this chapter. Why? Because
the action he takes here are directing everything that follows.

houyhnhnm:
<snip>
> Why is that a valid assumption?

Dana now:
Because the only one who has everything to lose by being found out as a liar, is Snape.

houyhnhnm:
<snip>
>  We *know* that Snape already knows of the Dark Lord's plan because that's what he tells Bellatrix.  Do we?  I, for one, wouldn't trust anything any one of them says.

Dana now:
If he really doesn't know the plan, then how do you explain him taking, the most serious magical bond, one can commit to and leave everything to the chance it's more serious than he expected it to be?  That would be plainly stupid. To risk everything on partial or unknown information can get you killed, and take a whole lot of people with you in the process.  This is not the action an experienced agent would take. He's been dealing with intelligence strategies since VW I and suddenly is incapable of understanding the consequences if he gambles wrong.  Although I do not put it past Snape as he likes to run his own show, you can bet this is not LV's or DD's strategy.

houyhnhnm:
<snip>
> All three are either directly or indirectly involved in a company of outlaws run by a murderous, torture-loving megalomaniac who rules by instilling fear and distrust.  That alone puts them in a perilous position.
<snip>

Dana now:
Narcissa only cares about Draco. It doesn't matter to her if she is punished for it later, as long as Draco has a chance to live. If she loses Draco, her life has no meaning; coming to Snape is enough proof for that. She would not risk lying to Snape if it would mean she could lose his support.

If Snape did not believe, himself, that he is on LV's good side, then she would not be able to lead him in the direction she wants.  Overstepping or failing LV's plan will not win you any points; look at what happened to Bella, or why Draco is in this mess in the first place. Snape tells her, not *even* he can persuade the Dark Lord to change his mind, he knows this perfectly well.

Bella is not presenting any information; she is just there because she wanted Narcissa to change her mind about asking Snape for help.  The only thing (well, besides venting her suspicions about him) she calls Snape on, is his willingness to risk his own skin for a change, when he offers Narcissa he would be able to help her. I cannot see a potential lie in that but maybe you can.

houyhnhnm:
<snip>
  They're bluffing.  They're lying.  They're spinning.  They're flattering.
<snip>

Dana now:
The only one called on his bluff is Snape, and he takes it and he bluffs with the highest stakes one can bluff with: -his life (or that of DD). Narcissa is not bluffing at all, she truly wants Snape help to save her son. Bella is not bluffing about anything because there isn't anything in it for her. She cares enough about Narcissa to want her to change her mind, but she truly feels Draco should be proud to die in service of LV. Snape has nothing on her, because him talking to them seals the deal on the both sides, not just from Bella's side. If he rats out Bella or Narcissa, he is toast as well. The only one holding the cards on all of them is Wormtail.

houyhnhnm:
<snip>
>I'm not absolutely certain that Bellatrix does at this point. <snip> Snape may know or he may be bluffing.
<snip>

Dana now:
Bellatrix knows that Draco has orders to do something that can get Draco killed, and thinks he should be proud. At this point, it doesn't matter if she knows what the task itself is. She knows enough to call Snape on his bluff.  Snape might not know, indeed, but there was nothing that forced him to agree on the third clause (Well, nothing but his own lie if he did not know, how ironic would that be). The UV is only sealed after he agrees on it, and only after Bella performs the last spell. We know, from Ron, that Arthur interrupted in the middle of the twins
performing an UV on him, and if you can't back out before the completion, Ron would be dead. But still, there was no reason for him to take it at all because he has nothing to prove to Bella. She does not trust him more because of it, even did everything to make it more complicated.

houyhnhnm:
> I don't think we can make any other assumptions, especially about what Voldemort did or did not want.
<snip>

Dana now:
Besides it being extremely important to Snape's health status and thus, if there was a plan, the entire plan is depended up on it, I think it would be far more interesting to ask the question: - Would DD be willing to not only risk Draco's, Harry's, all the Order Member's lives but even Hogwarts' safety, so Snape lives? DD has no way of knowing if LV will make an attempt to overrun Hogwarts, now that DD is no longer there to protect it. What will stop him from doing that? Snape? The Ministry? Is it worth the risk of getting everyone who resides there in danger, just so Snape can find some information? Don't you think Harry would be able to find the horcruxes without Snape's help?

Because the question still remains: if Spinner's End was in service of DD and DD asked Snape to kill him, then how will this protect everyone that DD was responsible for? Is the information Snape might or might not be able to find so much more important than the actual safety of the people he is doing it for? This is not dependent on Snape taking the UV on orders or not, but everything happening afterwards IS.  To dismiss this chapter because it gives a negative vibe about Snape is not doing the book any justice. It is trying to exclude parts of the book because they do not fit in the picture you have constructed about a character the books are not about.

But for argument's sake: if Snape really takes the UV to find out what Draco's task is, then how come the DEs on the Tower know what Draco is failing to do and, more important, Draco never told him, so how could he have told DD for DD to ask him to kill him.

And if Snape was told later, why take the UV to find out in the first place; if he expects LV to want him to finish the job, don't you think he is expecting to be told later (if he didn't already know as he claimed)?

And of course, if he was never told, then how does he know what to do on the tower? Is he really that stupid to commit himself to an unknown task? And more important: do you really believe that DD would be ready to clean up his mess and risk everything he's been working on for more than 30+ years?

Why train Harry about finding the horcruxes if Snape will be given the task?  He could better have taken the time to train Harry how to dispose of them without getting hurt or die in the process; oh but maybe that is what he asked Snape to do and Snape refused. For Snape there is no turning back after this, he is at LV's mercy; and because I do not believe in an ESE!Snape, I believe this is not what he wanted, but got nevertheless.

Dana