LV's bigger plan (was:Fawkes possible absence)

[Jen Reese]

No: HPFGUIDX 166418

> Carol responds:
> Well, at least you don't think that the Cabinet Plan was really about
> Trelawney, which is what I was arguing against here!

Jen:  I support the idea that Trelawney was kidnapped, and have
provided a canon argument in this thread.  I was talking about the
plan for Draco to kill Dumbledore in this instance though.

Carol: 
> However, we don't know why Snape thinks "he plans for me to do it in
> the end"--clearly, he hasn't been told so but is only deducing what
> Voldemort (or Dumbledore?) wants. 

Jen:  That's not clear to me, no. HBP never explains this point. 
Snape indicated he'd talked to Voldemort about the plan and
we never find out what he knows, either from Snape or Voldemort.

Carol:
> But Voldemort doesn't trust Snape to do the job. Just as he did with
> the Goblet of Fire plan, he needs someone other than Snape inside
> Hogwarts, someone whose loyalty to him is unquestionable and whose
> intentions no one will suspect. And voile! Just at the time he most
> wants Dumbledore dead, along comes young Draco, bent on revenge for
> his father's arrest, with news that he knows a way to get DEs into
> Hogwarts--the broken Vanishing Cabinets which, if repaired, would form
> a link between Hogwarts and Borgin and Burkes. (Or Voldie, bent on
> revenge against Lucius, summoned him, giving him the task of killing
> DD, and Draco said, "Oh, I know just the way!" and explained about the
> Vanishing Cabinets. How convenient, if that's the case.) 

Jen: I snipped out the paragraps I agree with--Voldemort wants Dumbledore
dead and Voldemort doesn't trust Snape--to come to this point.  This is
where the argument starts to break down for me.  What does Voldemort
see in Draco to indicate his fitness for the job of killing Dumbledore? 
You sugggest that Voldemort is atrracted to the idea of Draco because
no one would suspect his intentions.  Yet Voldemort tells Narcissa and
Bella his plan.  Snape indicated he was told the plan and we both agree
Voldemort doesn't trust him, so LV likely at least considered the idea
the plan might get to Dumbledore.  Rather than wanting a person no one
suspects, such as Barty Crouch, Jr., it appears Voldemort has done
everything short of taking out an ad in the Daily Prophet!

Draco proves his clever mind to Voldemort:  '...I was the only one who
realised what it meant - even Borgin didn't know - I was the one who
realised there could be a way into Hogwarts through the Cabinents if I
fixed the broken one.' (HBP, chap. 27, page 548, UK ed.)  But the
only reason suggested in canon for Voldemort choosing Draco to kill
Dumbledore is 'to punish Lucius' as concluded by Narcissa.

Carol:
> The idea that LV wants Draco to fail is *Narcissa's.* She's the one
> who says, "Then I am right! He has chosen Draco in revenge! He does
> not mean him to succeed! He wants him to be killed trying!" (HBP Am.
> ed. 34). Snape says neither yes or no in response to this remark
> ("Snape said nothing," 34), so it's impossible to know to what extent
> he agrees with Narcissa. IOW, the idea that the Dark Lord wants Draco
> to fail is not confirmed, either by Snape or by LV himself, who never
> appears in the book.)

Jen:  The fact that we never have confirmation from Voldemort about
the mission from his mouth is a very unique aspect of HBP in the
series so far, and one major reason why the story hasn't reached a
conclusion, or rather its only conclusion, in my opinion.

So, given what knowledge we do have, if you don't believe Narcissa's
reasoning is the same as Voldemort's, what are the other options? 
Once Draco repairs the Cabinents, Voldemort can choose anyone
he wants to be the one to kill Dumbledore, and he has chosen Draco.
What does he see in Draco?  

Carol:
> But he also knows full well that Voldemort wants Dumbledore
> dead. So while he seems to share Narcissa's fears that Draco will
> fail, to the extent that he puts his own life in jeopardy to protect
> him, there's no indication that he shares Narcissa's hysterical
> conclusion that Voldie *wants* Draco to fail.

Jen:  Snape never says he agrees or disagrees, he only offers,
'I cannot pretend the Dark Lord is not angry with Lucius [  ]...Yes
the Dark Lord is angry Narcissa, very angry' and then
says nothing when Narcissa says, 'Then I am right...he does not
mean him to succeed, he wants him to be killed trying!'  (ch. 2, p. 38)
I view that entire interaction - Snape's nonverbals of looking away,
not responding, offering a statement that fuels her suspicions instead
of tamping them down -as tacit agreement with Narcissa's conclusions.  

Carol:
> Given that Dumbledore is a big fish and Draco is a little one (as is vengeanace
> against Lucius, really), it's quite possible that Narcissa is wrong in
> believing that Voldemort *wants* Draco to fail, as both Snape and
> Narcissa are wrong in underestimating Draco's ability to carry out
> aspects of the plan that Snape, at least, knows nothing about.

Jen:  This is the same man who created a boat that 'weighs' 
magical power and that boat determined  'an underage and unqualified'
16-year old doesn't register on the magical power scale.  

Carol:
> So I really don't see how you can say that there was no plan to kill
> Dumbledore. 

Jen: Okay, I see a very improbable plan presented, one in which
Voldemort expects an underage and unqualified wizard to kill the
second greatest wizard (in his opinion) in the WW, when he himself
has been unable to do so.