LV's bigger plan (was:Fawkes possible absence)

[justcarol67]

No: HPFGUIDX 166420

Carol earlier:
> > <snip> So I really don't see how you can say that there was no
plan to kill Dumbledore. 
> 
Jen responded: 
Okay, I see a very improbable plan presented, one in which Voldemort
expects an underage and unqualified wizard to kill the second greatest
wizard (in his opinion) in the WW, when he himself has been unable to
do so.

Carol again:
And I see the Vanishing Cabinet Plan, which must have been carefully
worked out between Draco and Voldemort or the DEs would not have
orders from LV to make Draco try, as a very clever and highly
successful way of invading Hogwarts, assuming that it succeeds. And
the fact that Voldemort doesn't follow through on his threats to kill
Draco and Narcissa shows that he wants it to succeed. If he only
wanted Draco dead, he could have had Wormtail do it at any time. But,
IMO, he has pressured Draco throughout the year, more intensely as the
end of the year approaches, because he wants the plan to kill
Dumbledore to succeed, whether Draco does the deed himself or not. The
DE backup is supposed to help Draco find the nerve to kill DD and,
failing that, to kill Dumbledore themselves.

Otherwise, you have Voldemort expecting *Dumbledore* to kill Draco to
satisfy LV's desire for vengeance, followed by LV sacrificing six of
his remaining Death Eaters (all killed or defeated by Dumbledore),
leaving him with only Wormtail, Goyle, Bellatrix, and about three
others. Or you have the DEs killing Draco for failing to kill DD right
in front of a living Dumbledore, which even LV would not expect to
happen, and the Death Eaters somehow getting away. Neither scenario
makes any sense whatever to me. Or you have some of the Death Eaters
running off to kidnap Trelawney instead of following Draco to the
Astronomy Tower, which does not happen.

IMO, the DE backup were there to ensure that Draco killed DD or,
failing that, they would kill DD themselves and either kill Draco,
too, or take him to Voldemort to be punished. Voldemort cannot have
expected them to fail. He has too few Death Eaters left to lose six of
them (Amycus, Alecto, Brutal-Face, Greyback, the big blond, and
Gibbon) on an expedition whose sole purpose was to get Draco killed
(or to kidnap Trelawney, which just does not enter the picture). "It's
over" means that the job the DEs and Draco were sent to do is done.

If Voldemort *wanted* Draco (and the DEs) to fail, what were the DEs
supposed to do when they faced a fully armed and still-powerful
Dumbledore on the tower? They can't Disapparate from Hogwarts, as LV
knows perfectly well. Were they supposed to die there or be knocked
out by some spell and then arrested, leaving LV with about six Death
Eaters total? I think that DD was supposed to be caught off-guard by
Draco and disarmed, which, given DD's ostensibly slowed reactions
(Snape's and DD's mutual cover story) would be possible, and then
killed by the six DEs if Draco couldn't do it. (Probably, all six DEs
were supposed to have reached the tower without delay; I don't think
that LV anticipated any resistance from Order members--or none that
his DEs couldn't handle. At least some back-up was supposed to be
there the whole time.)

Really, the plan is pretty good, Dark Mark and Astronomy Tower and
all, especially given that neither Snape nor Dumbledore thought there
was any way to get DEs into the castle. (Certainly, no one, not even
Draco himself with his desperation measures, the mead and the
necklace, expected Draco to kill DD alone. The DE back-up was an
essential element of the plan.)

But Trelawney as side motive? We see a bit of unplanned mayhem--
Greyback attacking people for his perverse idea of pleasure, the
Gryffindor hourglass shattered, Hagrid's hut set on fire--but no one
running off into the darkness caused by the Peruvian Darkness Powder
to find Trelawney, no one left behind after the darkness passed to
kidnap her or Ron and Ginny would have seen them. All of the DEs
followed Draco, the only person who could see in the darkness because
he held the Hand of Glory. (Wonder what happened to it? Left behind as
incriminating evidence?)

At any rate, Draco certainly expected to commit murder when he went up
to the tower, whether he wanted to or not, and the DEs expected him to
do it. That was the "job" he was assigned. (The DEs certainly don't
seem to realize that he's there to get himself killed if that was
really LV's plan.)

Why Draco? Because he was the one with the Vanishing Cabinet idea and
because he was highly motivated (at first) by youthful enthusiasm,
self-confidence, loyalty, and, most important, desire for revenge--and
if those motives and emotions weakened, he could be coerced by threats
to himself and his mother. And if he failed, Voldemort would have his
sweet revenge on Lucius. But given Voldemort's multiple motives for
killing Dumbledore and his intense hatred for him, I don't think
Voldemort wanted the plan to fail. And given the advantage of
surprise, the trick of trapping Dumbledore on the Astronomy Tower away
from all help, DD's supposedly slowed reaction time and "serious
injury" (Snape may even have told LV that it was a blackened hand),
and six DEs as backup, I don't think he expected it to fail. I really
 think that Voldemort expected Dumbledore to die. Especially if he
thought, as Draco and Bellatrix did, that Snape would try to "steal
Draco's glory" and make sure the job got done.

At least we agree that LV wants Dumbledore dead and that he doesn't
trust Snape!

Carol, quite sure that Voldemort's plan was indeed for Dumbledore, and
perhaps Draco, to die that night, with Trelawney nowhere in the picture