LV's reasons for showing at the DoM/Slughorn's favoritism/Hagrid and Draco

[Dana]

No: HPFGUIDX 168656

Magpie:
> Cutting to the chase....why? As I think somebody else said earlier, 
> it just seems like Snape is the more far-fetched solution here. If 
> Snape informed LV that he sent the Order, then why doesn't LV 
> consider Snape the reason the mission failed? Snape didn't have to 
> send the Order at all, and he just informed LV that he ruined his 
> plans on his own whim...so why isn't he, rather than Lucius, in 
> trouble?
> 
> This is LV's plan; why would he need Snape, who is miles away and 
> would have no idea when Harry left or even possibly how he left, to 
> tell him that maybe the mission has failed? And failed because he, 
> Snape, decided to send in the Order?

Dana:
Why isn't Snape dead for betraying LV? He was the only one that could 
have send the Order because he was be the only one at Hogwarts that 
would know Harry went missing, because all other Order Members were 
removed and I have absolutely no doubt that LV knew this because his 
plan wouldn't have worked otherwise and as we see the first thing 
Harry does when he received the vision is going to McGonagall, who 
was until that morning still in the Hospital wing. 

Pg 644 UKed Paperback Chapter: Out of the fire

I need to see Professor McGonagall,' gasped Harry, the breath tearing 
his lungs. `Now 
 it's urgent.' 

`She's not here, Potter,' said Madam Pomfrey sadly. `She was 
transferred to St Mungo's this morning.' 

End quote canon. 

And don't you think it would have created problems for Snape if Harry 
would have gone to him? If Harry would have gone to him in his office 
instead of asking for help in front of Umbridge wouldn't that have 
caused a problem of the whole plan falling apart because Snape would 
not have any other way than to check in with Sirius in front of Harry 
because otherwise Harry would have told DD Snape refused to help him. 

Snape already was a potential problem to the plan so why wasn't Snape 
taken out like the other Order Members? Because Snape knew of the 
plan and he assured LV, Harry would not come to him for help but when 
Harry tried to ask him for help, this left Snape with a problem 
because Harry would have told DD he tried to warn Snape and even if 
Snape wouldn't know who was captured at the place it was hidden then 
his previous inside into Harry's head, DD's worry and the previous 
incident with Arthur would not account for him not knowing something 
was up. That would have blown his cover with DD. 

Especially because it was his job to keep an eye on Harry and Harry 
being in Umbridge care someone who actively tried to expel Harry 
before would also cause a problem because if she had thrown Harry out 
of Hogwarts that evening and no Order member was there to provide 
protection for Harry then DD would not have been pleased with Snape. 

So there was nothing left for Snape to do then to alert the Order and 
DD specifically mentioning that Snape knew Harry was in the Forest 
with Umbridge (3x times) and this could only mean that Snape saw 
Umbridge and Harry go in himself. And I do not find it a good excuse 
that Snape waited and waited and waited for them to come out because 
as we see it takes the Order a long time to show up at the DoM. 

So it makes no sense for Snape not going after 6 kids who are in the 
company of an untrustworthy MoM employee, who already tried to expel 
Harry once, was responsible for DD no longer being at Hogwarts in an 
attempt to keep Harry there, removed Hagrid and McGonagall. I don't 
think DD would keep saying I trust Severus Snape, if he even can't do 
the simple job of keeping an eye on Harry right, and we have already 
seen that Snape failed in another simple job and I do not think Snape 
had a lot of room to mess up again. 

LV thought of everything. Removed every possibility for Harry to warn 
the Order directly, even covered Harry checking in on Sirius himself. 
Would you really believe he would not calculate a possibility that 
Snape had no other choice but to alert the Order? I do not think so 
it might have already been part of the plan from the start to have 
the Order send after Harry, after a sufficient amount of time had 
past. It would have caused DD and Harry being caught at the DoM, 
after Lucius and his gang had already left, a great deal of trouble 
not to mention Sirius. 

Also I heard many people say that Snape could not envision that Harry 
would find a way to get to the DoM, the only problem is that LV was 
counting on Harry finding a way otherwise why plan it at all and so 
it is not stretch at all for Snape to envision this as well. Snape 
might not have counted on Harry flying in by thestrals but he would 
surely know Harry would try to get to his broom and he knows from 
experience that these kids have no problem taking out a teacher. 

I do believe that Snape notified LV he send the Order because if he 
did not and LV found out about it and Snape would have needed to 
explain himself afterwards then he risked LV not believing him or 
risk LV blaming him for messing things up and if LV did not know when 
Harry arrived and he did not know how much time had passed before the 
Order arrived then Snape would have a big problem but if he gave LV 
all the information that was expected of him when it came to making a 
decision of sending the Order in and Snape waiting as long as he 
possibly could then what ever happened as a result would not have 
been Snape's fault. 

And as we see Snape is now the most trusted DE because it was not 
Snape who messed up and why he is not dead. There was no other person 
that could possibly have raised the alarm and Bella would know that 
none of the kids could have notified the Order and no other teacher 
would have know how to contact the Order or DD and that left Snape 
and LV is not stupid he would have known this because I believe it 
was on LV's orders that the Order members were removed after DD was 
no longer there. 

No not by taking them out himself but by having Lucius either whisper 
into Umbridge ear or by having him rub Fudge the right way. If 
Umbridge come up with the idea herself, that Hagrid might know where 
DD was then she would have gone after him sooner but she did not and 
I see no other reason for the raid on Hagrid so why I think this is 
what the MoM officials and Umbridge were doing there. DD left before 
the eater holidays and Hagrid is taken out during the OWL exams, 
which are in the beginning of June. 

LV talked about months of careful planning and this would include 
Snape possible place within that plan. Snape is not merely a teacher 
at Hogwarts and what ever his loyalties, LV considers him one of his 
but knows that Snape has a cover to keep. 

JMHO. 

Dana