LV's reasons for showing at the DoM/Slughorn's favoritism/Hagrid and Draco

[Dana]

No: HPFGUIDX 168690

Pippin:
> Voldemort couldn't have counted on Harry falling asleep in the 
> middle of his History of Magic exam.  But he could count on Harry 
> falling asleep at night.  If the vision had come at night, Harry 
> would have  talked to his friends first, they'd have come up with a 
> plan of action that didn't involve teachers, and no one, Snape 
> included, would have known what happened until the next morning. 
> Voldemort could blame his own impatience for ruining his plan, not 
that it would be in character. 
<snip> 


Dana:
Although I totally understand what you are saying here, I do not 
agree that Harry needed to be asleep to receive the vision. 

And to be honest I actually do not think Harry fell asleep and then 
received the vision but that he came into a dream like state 
*because* of the vision and we have seen this before. Everytime Harry 
is having occlumency lessons he ends up on the ground not 
specifically aware of how he got there. 

I also believe that we have seen one vision planting when Harry is 
awake and this is during the last occlumency lesson we see on page 
(so before SWM) and here it is: 

Pg 522 UKed Paperback chapter: Seen and Unforeseen. 

Harry did not have time to gather himself together and attempt to 
clear his mind before Snape cried, Legilimens!'

He was hurtling along the corridor towards the Department of 
Mysteries, past the blank stone walls, past the torches – the plain 
black door growing ever larger; he was moving so fast he was going to 
collide with it, he was feet from it and again he could see that 
chink of faint blue light –. 

The door had flown open! He was through it at last, inside a black-
walled, black floored circular room lit with blue-flamed candles, and 
there were more doors all around him – he needed to go on – but which 
door ought he to take -? 

`POTTER!'

Harry opened his eyes. He was flat on his back again with no memory 
of having got there; he was also panting as though he really had run 
the length of the Department of Mysteries corridor





I've never seen that before. I mean, I told you, I've dreamed about 
the door
 but it never opened before
 

End quote from canon. 

As we see this was not a memory from a previous dream Harry had so it 
could not have been in his head, he never had been able to go passed 
the door of the DoM and yet,the door suddenly opened. He also found 
himself on his back with no recollection of how he got on the floor. 
The planting of the vision did not need Harry to be asleep. 

Also when we look at what actually happened the moment he received 
the vision he had not fallen asleep. 

Pg 641 Chapter OWLs

And nobody from Liechtenstein had wanted to come


Think, he told himself, his face in his hands while all around him 
quills scratched out never-ending answers and the sand trickled 
through the hour-glass at the front


He was walking along the cool, dark corridor to the Department of 
Mysteries again


End quote canon. 

As you see Harry was still aware of his surroundings just a second 
before the vision starts. It is Harry's conclusion that he fell 
asleep because besides in his dreams and during occlumency, he never 
before had random visions when he was awake but this time he was 
awake and the vision was the cause of his dream-like state just as he 
experienced during occlumency lessons. 

Pippin:
> But it's already been pointed out 
> that Voldemort had no reason to think there weren't  other teachers 
> who were Order members. It might even be so.  Flitwick 
> might have been an Order member all along.
> But someone had to tell Kreacher when the vision had got through
> so that he could wound Buckbeak, That information must have come 
> from Voldemort's end since Snape didn't even know about it until 
> after Harry had talked to Kreacher. 

Dana: 
As you can see above no one had to inform Kreacher of anything 
because Kreacher only had to do what he had been told to do because 
the time LV was going to plant the vision, was already set and he 
never planned to wait till Harry was asleep, because LV calculated 
that Harry needed time to find a way to get to the DoM and needed 
time to get there when he did, so if he had waited untill Harry was 
asleep during the night he would risk Harry getting there during the 
morning and it would also risk more Order members being present at GP 
during the night when Harry would try to make contact. The timing of 
the planting of the vision was chosen carefully because it gave the 
most chances Sirius would be alone at GP and thus make it able for 
Kreacher to keep him away from the fireplace. 

Also another thing, Harry could not warn just anybody about what he 
saw. He could only alert Order Members because Sirius was still a 
wanted criminal and thus it would be a sure thing that Harry would 
not go to the MoM employees during the exams or any other teacher not 
working for the Order.

I do not agree with the assumption that LV could not have known who 
the Order Members were at Hogwarts because I see the attack on Hagrid 
as very specific and we also have Snape's claim that he provided LV 
with very useful information on the Order (HBP ch2). I do not think 
it is a stretch to assume that Snape told him and that it was not a 
coincidence that all Order Members where taken out accept Snape. 

Snape claimed he has given LV useful information on the Order himself 
he mentions two Order members specifically and at this moment there 
is no canon supporting Snape was lying. Not even the Kreacher 
storyline is not proof Snape was lying because both the Black sisters 
do not contradict the information coming from Snape.  

Also Wormtail could already had given LV a lot of information on the 
social structure of the Order in the first WW, so besides knowing 
which people from the previous Order were more likely be there now, 
he would also know that all the Order members would know each other.

The only person the Order did not know anything about then was Snape 
but that is no longer a secret, not on either sides. And so Snape 
could actually not lie about not knowing who would be an Order Member 
at Hogwarts because he knew about Snape's presents at Order meetings 
and LV knew from his DEs, who went to see the giants that Hagrid was 
send by DD and thus working for DD on Order business. 

LV could also know from himself witnessing McGonagall's presents on 
two occasions when it concerned Harry. Two times when LV invaded 
Harry's mind McGonagall was there, the first time right after the 
bite incident and the second time when Harry was about to be 
expelled. Fudge could also be a witness that McGonagall worked for DD 
besides being his teacher when she wanted to fight with DD and he 
told her, she was needed at Hogwarts. This would also deduce the 
amount of Order Members because why would DD order McGonagall to not 
interfere if there were more Order Members present? LV knows about 
Snape. So even if Snape hadn't told LV about who were Order members 
at Hogwarts he could know the life lines Harry had there. And of 
course there is also the information from Barty Crouch Jr. because he 
was had intimid conversations with DD even if the Order wasn't yet 
formed he would could have told LV who DD trusted and who was merely 
a teacher. 

I find it interesting when people state that Snape could not do 
anything because it would risk his cover but that no one thinks about 
what he DID have to do to keep his cover. So even if Snape did not 
give the information about them being Order Members then LV could 
have asked him if Harry ever went for help to others. He could know 
from Lucius through Draco which teacher Harry was social with and 
Hagrid would be one of them, if there was a need then Harry went 
either to DD or his head of house and because I believe Snape could 
know LV has more ways then just him to find out about information on 
the Order I believe Snape just told him this. There was nothing to be 
gained by withholding it. JMHO

Well I could go on and on but there were a lot of ways for LV finding 
out this information to know which people could interfere with his 
plans and he waited until he knew the coast was clear and that Harry 
would not go to just anyone in an attempt to contact DD because it 
would expose he knew about Sirius and his whereabouts.  

Pippin:
> I'm sure that JKR has her reasons for not letting us know how 
> Kreacher and Voldemort were communicating.
> But there are those mirrors which wouldn't have been as
> useful as we might think. Is that because Kreacher had stolen
> Sirius's mirror and Voldemort had another? 


Dana:
The other mirror was in Harry's possession and JKR is referring to it 
as being more help then you think and I believe she means for Harry 
so to me this does not indicate Kreacher stole anything besides if LV 
could enchant a mirror then why did Kreacher needed Sirius's mirror 
because LV could have given Kreacher is own as again the other one is 
in Harry's possession, so he would need to first undo the link 
between Harry's mirror and the one Sirius had then make the 
connection to his own mirror. Seem farfetched to me. 

Pippin: 
> I doubt that Voldemort actually trusts Snape. Psychopaths are
> psychologically incapable of trusting anyone, and the more 
> powerful Snape becomes, the more Voldemort will fear 
> losing control of him.

Dana:
That is not what we see in HBP when Bella not Narcissa tells Snape "I 
know that he trusts you", she has no reason to state this to rub 
Snape the right way. She is doing everything to rub him the wrong way 
and admitting LV trusts him and having to admit that she believes he 
is wrong about Snape is negative for her not Snape.  

LV's might not be a person that trusts easily like we see with DD and 
ever misstep a DE makes will lower him on the social ladder and flat-
out betrayal will be the end of that specific DE but we actually 
witness Snape climbed up on that ladder for LV telling him about 
Draco's task, a task that at the specific moment of Spinner's End did 
not include Snape as an active participant in that task. Snape is 
also able to tell Narcissa that LV was very angry with Lucius 
something LV would have needed to tell Snape because he does not have 
a scar link to tell him what LV is feeling. 

I do not believe LV would make Snape privy of his plans if he really 
doubted Snape was loyal to him and for Snape to have come in this 
position he must have proven himself trustworthy to LV, precisly 
because LV is nothing like DD that would just trust someone because 
he has a good story to tell that would deliver him nothing useful. 
(and at this moment there is nothing more to go on to indicate there 
was more to DD trust in Snape, we have to wait and see if DH will 
change that)

Pippin:
> But he does not have to be in a hurry to eliminate Snape. As
> long as none of his followers  suppose that Snape has
> betrayed their master and is getting away with it, LV can take
> his time and plot the elaborate sort of revenge which he
> enjoys.

Dana:
I agree with you here because there is always a possibility that LV 
did suspect Snape was not loyal to him but sending the Order was not 
what would have aroused that suspicion because I believe LV 
calculated Snape might need to act as a Order member to keep his 
cover with DD and at this moment we do not see that LV was willing to 
sacrifice his spy as Snape specifically tells Bella that he was 
ordered to stay behind by LV himself. 

And Bella's specific question to Snape, where he was on that night 
makes me really think she knew that Snape was up to date on what the 
plans were because otherwise why would she even expecting him to be 
there and if Snape did not know why didn't he just stated it as such 
instead of saying he was Ordered behind, no information on what was 
going down no need to tell Snape he should stay behind, behind for 
what?  


And so if Snape was DDM and he knew about the plan then why did he 
not actively follow Harry to make sure Harry would not find a way to 
go the DoM. Snape's experience with Harry and his friends should make 
him aware that he could take out Umbridge if given the chance. I do 
not believe Snape was just waiting and waiting because he believed 
Umbridge would keep Harry busy. If Snape could not have foreseen that 
Harry would find a way to go to the DoM which I do not believe 
because LV was counting on him finding a way, then he also could not 
have foreseen what Umbridge was doing with Harry in the Forest or 
what Harry would be doing to Umbridge. All the more reason to keep an 
eye out. 

And I find the idea that it was not Snape's job to keep an eye on 
Harry the strangest excuse for Snape not doing anything because if he 
did not feel it was his job, then why was he chasing Quirrell, trying 
to safe Harry's life, why was he chasing Sirius and Lupin and why was 
he giving Umbridge fake serum? According to many of his fans he did 
it all for Harry but when he actually doesn't do something for Harry 
when the person he is with actually could posse a threat to him then 
it is suddenly not Snape's responsibility, I find this interesting 
because it is claimed that his actions on the tower in HBP were all 
to safe Harry and him sending the Order was also to safe Harry but he 
keeping his eye on Harry was not his responsibility as a Order 
Member. Mhhh sounds a little conflicting to me but it is just my 
opinion of course. 

JMHO

Dana