LV's reasons for showing at the DoM/Slughorn's favoritism/Hagrid and Draco

[pippin_999]

No: HPFGUIDX 168711


> 
> Dana:
> Although I totally understand what you are saying here, I do not 
> agree that Harry needed to be asleep to receive the vision. 
> 
> And to be honest I actually do not think Harry fell asleep and then 
> received the vision but that he came into a dream like state 
> *because* of the vision and we have seen this before. Everytime Harry 
> is having occlumency lessons he ends up on the ground not 
> specifically aware of how he got there. 

Pippin:
Although Harry's scar hurts all the time, he only has visions under
very specific conditions: when he is asleep or Snape is using 
legilimency on  him. That fits with the instructions from Dumbledore 
to practice occlumency "particularly every night before sleeping so 
you can close your mind to bad dreams." If he could have the
dreams at any time, Dumbledore would have warned him.

While we don't know that Harry actually fell asleep during the
History of Magic exam, we do know that he was exhausted and
had slept poorly the night before. 

Dana: 
The timing of  the planting of the vision was chosen carefully 
because it gave the  most chances Sirius would be alone at GP 
and thus make it able for Kreacher to keep him away from the 
fireplace. 

Pippin:
Kreacher had to injure Buckbeak to make sure that Sirius would
be busy. The Order was no longer using the Floo network, so
nobody would be expecting a message through the fire, and
Kreacher's presence in the kitchen would in itself be enough
to keep the other Order members away except at mealtimes. 
It's not as if he's pleasant company. 

Dana:
> Also another thing, Harry could not warn just anybody about what he 
> saw. He could only alert Order Members because Sirius was still a 
> wanted criminal and thus it would be a sure thing that Harry would 
> not go to the MoM employees during the exams or any other teacher not 
> working for the Order.

Pippin:
But Voldemort cannot reach into Harry's mind and pluck out
the names of Order members, so he cannot know whether there
are Order members at Hogwarts that he does not know about.

If McGonagall's turn for the worse was the result of an attack,
why not finish her off? 

Also,  Voldemort was expecting Harry to try for the prophecy
sooner "Well, this explains why you didn't come earlier, Potter,
the Dark Lord wondered why--"  and he didn't think he needed
to get McGonagall and Hagrid out of the way.

But the main trouble with all these machinations is that
Harry hasn't thought of any of it. He's blaming  Snape
for goading Sirius, and we have the other shoe waiting to drop
when Harry discovers the third part of the UV, so what purpose
does it serve to introduce other ways in which Snape was 
somehow responsible for killing Sirius off?

> Pippin:
> > I'm sure that JKR has her reasons for not letting us know how 
> > Kreacher and Voldemort were communicating.
> > But there are those mirrors which wouldn't have been as
> > useful as we might think. Is that because Kreacher had stolen
> > Sirius's mirror and Voldemort had another? 
> 
> 
> Dana:
> The other mirror was in Harry's possession and JKR is referring to it 
> as being more help then you think and I believe she means for Harry 
> so to me this does not indicate Kreacher stole anything besides if LV 
> could enchant a mirror then why did Kreacher needed Sirius's mirror 
> because LV could have given Kreacher is own as again the other one is 
> in Harry's possession, so he would need to first undo the link 
> between Harry's mirror and the one Sirius had then make the 
> connection to his own mirror. Seem farfetched to me. 

Pippin:
"The mirror that Harry got from Sirius might not have helped as 
much as you think but, on the other hand, will help more than you think. "

It's hard to see how it wouldn't have helped if there was only one
other and if Sirius had it. But maybe there were originally four 
mirrors, one for each Marauder.

Otherwise why would Harry need to say "Sirius" to activate the
mirror? Sirius's note says that he has the other one, but he
could have been deceived as to whether the other ones were
still extant.

> Pippin: 
> > I doubt that Voldemort actually trusts Snape. Psychopaths are
> > psychologically incapable of trusting anyone, and the more 
> > powerful Snape becomes, the more Voldemort will fear 
> > losing control of him.
> 
> Dana:
> That is not what we see in HBP when Bella not Narcissa tells Snape "I 
> know that he trusts you", 
> 
Pippin:
IMO, Bella's delusional about Voldemort. She wants to think he's been
as devoted to her as she is to him, and she reasons that if Voldemort
does not trust her as he used to it's because Snape has stolen
her place as his most trusted servant. Dumbledore explains in
one of his lessons that though Voldemort's servants vie for his
trust, none of them can ever really win it. 

Dana:
> And so if Snape was DDM and he knew about the plan then why did he 
> not actively follow Harry to make sure Harry would not find a way to 
> go the DoM. Snape's experience with Harry and his friends should make 
> him aware that he could take out Umbridge if given the chance.

Pippin:
Just because Voldemort has insane confidence in Harry's
abilities doesn't mean that Snape does. We've never seen him
show *any* confidence in Harry's abilities.

Snape would expect Harry to return from the forest, because Snape
does not know that the DA are going to succeed in finding Harry
and Hermione and returning their wands,  he does not know that
the thestrals are going to be attracted by the blood on Harry's
sleeve, and he doesn't know that Harry is going to think of using
them for transportation. In fact, Harry doesn't think of that, Luna
does. Harry twice considers going back, once to get his
wand, and once to get his hands on a broom.

If Snape is indeed the only Order member left at Hogwarts, he
would not be allowed  to leave  it unguarded to go on a wild 
goose chase after Harry. Dumbledore is emphatic in HPB 
that he always has had  the school under guard in his absence.

Pippin