Another time line (was: LV's reasons for showing at the DoM)

[Dana]

No: HPFGUIDX 168728

 
Pippin:
> Just because Voldemort has insane confidence in Harry's
> abilities doesn't mean that Snape does. We've never seen him
> show *any* confidence in Harry's abilities.
> 
> Snape would expect Harry to return from the forest, because Snape
> does not know that the DA are going to succeed in finding Harry
> and Hermione and returning their wands,  he does not know that
> the thestrals are going to be attracted by the blood on Harry's
> sleeve, and he doesn't know that Harry is going to think of using
> them for transportation. In fact, Harry doesn't think of that, Luna
> does. Harry twice considers going back, once to get his
> wand, and once to get his hands on a broom.
> 
> If Snape is indeed the only Order member left at Hogwarts, he
> would not be allowed  to leave  it unguarded to go on a wild 
> goose chase after Harry. Dumbledore is emphatic in HPB 
> that he always has had  the school under guard in his absence.


Dana: 
No Snape has no confidence in Harry but he does compliment his more 
talented friends in HBP Chapter: Spinner's End. 

I snipped the rest of your post to explore the time-line of things 
happening again. 

I want to add only a few things before I do that indicates very 
specifically that even Umbridge knew who Harry would be talking to 
when in need and who he didn't in relation to an emergency, which 
means she got this information from someone. 

I also am of the opinion that LV even counted on Harry being expelled 
by Umbridge and he certainly was counting on Harry to use the 
fireplace or otherwise what was the use of preparing Kreacher? I 
think you give a little to less credit to LV's intelligence and his 
ways to find things out. 
Also you say LV could not plant the vision other then Harry sleeping 
or during occlumency lessons, you are forgetting LV being able to 
invade Harry's mind while he was awake. There is no reason to believe 
that he could not plant the vision in an awake Harry and Harry 
feeling exhausted probable helped but I do not believe it was 
essential but then again LV could have known that too because it was 
during the evening Astronomy exam that Hagrid and McGonagall were 
taken out, so a bad night sleep was pretty much granted and as we see 
Harry had no dreams in the 3 hour sleep he had. Still I do not think 
LV needed an asleep Harry even if his tired mind would have been less 
resistant and probably helped. But nevertheless lets look at what 
Umbridge had to say. 


pg 655 UKed Paperback chapter: Out of the fire. 

'Clearly , it was important  for you to talk to somebody. Was it 
Albus Dumbledore? Or the half-breed, Hagrid? I doubt it was 
McGonagall, I hear she is still too ill to talk to anyone.' 

End quote from canon. 

To much coincidence for my taste that she mentions these three 
people, when she concludes that it must be really important to talk 
to somebody. 

Anyway although I know Neri already posted a timeline, I thought I 
amuse myself and make another one. I haven't checked with his to see 
if they match with what Neri wrote earlier but for me it is still 
cristal clear that something is not right about Snape's actions and 
here it is. 

2.00  am – 4.30 am          Harry talks history exam. The students 
enter the great hall at 2.00 pg 639 chapter OWLs. 

4.30  am – 4.40 am          Harry receives vision about Sirius being 
at the DoM, being tortured by LV. Will take 4.40 for the vision to 
end. 

4.40  am – 4.45 am          Harry having a conversation with 
Professor Tofty pg 643 

4.45  am – 5.00 am          Harry going to the hospital wing to see 
McGonagall, when he is there he hears the bell that indicates the end 
of classes pg 644

5.00  am – 5.20 am          Harry talking to his friends. Hermione 
tells him it is 5.00 am pg 645, Ginny and Luna come in.

5.20  am – 5.35 am	   Harry is going to get his cloak and meets 
there rest in front of Umbridge office.

5.35  am – 5.50 am  Harry tries to contact Sirius. 

5.50  am – 6.10 am  Harry is caught, Umbridge sends someone to get 
Snape.  

6.10  am – 6.45 am  Snape arrives and when he is about the leave 
Harry tries to warn him. 

6.45  am – 7.00 am  Hermione comes up with a plan to stop Umbridge 
crucio Harry. 

7.00  am – 7.15 am  Harry, Umbridge and Hermion reach the forest, 
when they walk past the great Hall. Harry notices dinner is still in 
progress. 

7.10  am – 7.25 am  Ron, Luna, Ginny and Neville escape from Draco 
and his gang and go after Harry. 

7.15  am – 9.00 am  Harry, Hermione and Umbridge face the centaur's 
and Gwarp. 

9.00  am – 9.55 am  Harry and his friends leave the Forest just when 
the sun is about to set. In Scotland in June the sunsets on between 
9.50 and 9.57 am between 1996 and 2004. Jo was living in Scotland at 
the time she was writing OotP. On this website one can see the sunset 
and sunrise for Edinburgh. There are three places in Scotland that 
can be selected; Glasgow and Aberdeen are the other two and they have 
the same sunset and rise times. 
http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/astronomy.htmln=304&month=6&year
=2004&obj=sun&afl=-11&day=1

9.55  am – 10.50 am Harry is still flying to London, on page 675 it 
is mentioned that twilight sets, it is the time when the sunset ends 
and night begins it takes 3.31 minutes for this to happen and for the 
3 places mentioned above this takes place between 22.50 and 22.55 
(10.50  - 10.55 am) 
http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/astronomy.htmlmonth=6&year=2004&
obj=sun&afl=-13&day=1&n=304

10.50 am – 12.00 am       Harry arrives at the MoM and wanders around 
it the DoM

12.00 am –  1.30 pm        Harry and his friends fight the DEs

1.30  pm –  3.30 pm         The Order arrives. I am giving 2 hours 
from the moment the Order arrives until Harry is sent to DD office.

3.30 pm –  4.30 pm          Harry waits for DD in DD's office the sun 
has not yet risen because Harry notices dawn is approaching and we 
hear DD tell Fudge he will give him 30 minutes of his time and DD has 
taken everybody to the hospital wing, had a chat with Snape and when 
he is arriving the sun is still rising and the sunrises in Scotland 
between 4.25 and 4.35
http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/astronomy.htmln=304&month=6&year
=2004&obj=sun&afl=-13&day=1

- End time line -

It takes Harry already almost 5 hours to get of the ground from the 
moment Harry received the vision, even if we stretch the events 
between the time of the vision until they leave the grounds and all 
things happened in between to a little later then it still does not 
change that it takes 5 hours before Harry is able to leave. 
>From the astronomy exam the night before we see that at 11 o'clock it 
is dark, Astronomy practical exam begins at 11 o'clock pg 633.

If Snape knew Harry was in the Forest with Umbridge, as we are told 
by DD, then it still takes him an awful long time to realise 
something is up. If Snape finds out between 6.10 and 7.00 about Harry 
having a vision about Sirius, he still waits till after dark to 
notify the Order. 

And if Snape had notified the order around 11 when it was fully dark 
(which would still be 4 hours from the time Harry warned him if we 
stretch it to 7.00 and 2 hours from the moment Harry left the 
Hogwarts grounds) then the Order would have arrived either just 
before he faced the DEs or very shortly into the fight and that is 
not what we see. When the twilight occurs Harry is still in midair 
(pg 677) and as we read on we get a sense that it takes awhile from 
there before they reached the MoM. The end time of the DoM battle is 
also set because JKR gives us the dawn is approaching which is before 
4.30.  

So we know when Harry gets the vision, we know at what time he left 
and we know when the whole ordeal ended and it takes almost 12 hours 
from start to finish. 
It takes Harry almost 5 hours to leave the grounds and another 7 till 
he ends up in DD's office and if Snape only got worried when it 
turned dark then we see if he had notified the Order then, which 
would be around 11.00, that they probably would have arrived before 
Harry did or at least before Harry faced the DEs. Because the Order 
would give or take have taken 20 minutes to get there and it would 
still have been 11.20 and between twilight which is 10.50 and the end 
of the battle which is at least a half hour before sunrise at 4.30, 
it still takes more then 5 hours for the whole ordeal to unfold and 
the Order did not battle the DEs for 3 to 4 hours and they did not 
arrive minutes after Harry did. 

Also there is another problem that does not fit about Harry not being 
able to get to the DoM and that is the accio brooms thing we see on 
three occasions. One in GoF when Harry faces the Dragon, the second 
time is with the twins and the third time is in HBP. To some extent 
it doesn't matter how Snape found out about Harry being in the forest 
because there is to much time that has passed for him not to find out 
from Draco that the 4 other kids had gone after Harry and that they 
did carry wands. To not know anything between 7 and 11, is to long a 
time to not know anything or not know that 6 kids are missing. And as 
you pointed out in your post that Snape could not know if the other 
kids would have been able to find Harry so could he not be sure they 
indeed did. So Harry himself being wandless would not risk him accio 
the brooms but when the other kids went after them, this risk became 
very apparent but still Snape is not searching the forest. 

Therefore I still hold Snape accountable for what happened because he 
just waited and waited from the moment Harry warned him about him 
receiving the vision and the time he began to worry something is up. 
Even if after 4 hours of wondering why Harry and Umbridge had not 
come out of the forest (which he would need to monitor constantly to 
even know they did not) and then notifying the Order, would still 
have made it very probable for the Order to have arrived on time. 

So again I asked anyone to come up with a good and logical 
explanation for Snape waiting so long to become worried and no, Harry 
not being able to get to his Firebolt is not one of them because as 
we have seen in PS/SS, there are enough Hogwart brooms to go around, 
we also see that there are more hippogriffs living in the Forest then 
just Buckbeak in PoA, there is a flying car running around it since 
CoS, we see Harry accio his broom in GoF and that more then one broom 
is available even if he could not get to his own, so why oh why did 
Snape wait that long to do something? And besides there is the 
problem with the fact that every year the thestrals bring the kids to 
Hogwarts at the beginning of the schoolyear and DD often uses them to 
get around, Snape can see them as JKR has mentioned in an interview 
and he knows Harry has seen death when Cedric died the previous year. 
And as we have witnessed twice Snape has a tendency to have 
conversations in the forest himself so I'm sure he is very aware 
about what is living there or that he even knows his way around it. 

So what was Snape doing between the time Harry warned him and the 
time it became dark and why wasn't he alarmed that in a 4 hour period 
Harry still hadn't shown up. And no, Snape did not alarm the Order at 
11 and not even at 12.00 because the Order is in London and it would 
not take them hours to show up at the MoM and as we see from Arthur's 
travelling with Harry in the beginning of the book, it doesn't even 
take hours to get there by muggle transportation. 

And JKR being bad with math is not a good excuse either because she 
gives very specific indications on what is happening when and these 
indications are there for a reason and her being part of the living 
world makes it very improbable that she would not have know what 
twilight means and when it occurs or when the sun sets and when it 
rises. Writing up ages is very different from writing time frames and 
see uses specific time indications by mentioning when the OWL starts, 
having Hermione mentioning it is 5 o'clock when she talks to Harry 
and showing us that it is dark at 11.00 when she mentions the time 
the Astronomy OWL starts the night before. 

JMHO

Dana

PS: About the mirrors if Kreacher stole the mirror from Sirius, then 
LV would need to remove the enhantment Sirius put on it or otherwise 
the one in Harry's possesion would react to his name and LV could not 
risk it being activated and would not know if Harry was not carrying 
it on him. Also LV does not need to steal magical items from other 
wizards, he knows more about magic then anyone and the idea of there 
being more then these two seems unlikely to me. And the idea that 
Kreacher could keep Order members away by his mere presents seem 
unlikely too because we see no one ran away from Kreacher when Harry 
was there. The timing was in my opinion set and Kreacher had his 
orders to hurt Buckbeak to keep him away from the fireplace and no 
one needed to contact Kreacher because that would risk Sirius being 
in his presence when that happened. JMHO