ChapDisc: DH 18, The Life and Lies of Albus Dumbledore

[Carol]

No: HPFGUIDX 182747

Alla wrote:
 
> I still think I am missing something in your logical chain. SO 
Dumbledore does understand that Voldemort is going to attack Harry 
and his guard, yes? We agree on that. What we do disagree on is that
you argue that Dumbledore is sure that Voldemort will be fooled by 
his clever plan and I doubt that very much.
<snip>
> What need was there to just hand the damaging information in? I just
do not see it, I have no idea how Dumbledore's actions are defensible
here. What purpose was there to give the info in the first place?
<snip>

Carol responds:
I hope you don't mind my entering this conversation. I'm not going to
defend Portrait!Dumbledore, exactly, but I think he's doing here
exactly what the living DD did from the end of GoF until the end of
HBP, asking Snape to provide seemingly valuable information while
withholding the key piece ("Prince's Tale"). In this case, he tells
Snape to provide the date and time of the planned escape (along with
side information about not intending to use methods monitored by the
MoM) but to withhold the key component, the Poly-juiced Potters (which
Snape has secretly suggested to the Confunded Mundungus, again on DD's
orders). This tactic of revealing while concealing has worked before,
quite effectively, thanks to Snape's skill as an Occlumens. (If it
hadn't, Snape wouldn't be alive and DD would not have had access to
Voldie's plans in OoP and HBP.)

DD is concerned, of course, about Snape's cover, particularly now that
Voldie is taking over the WW. He needs him to become headmaster of
Hogwarts, as he can't be if LV suspects his loyalties. The students'
safety depends on it (I realize that Snape can't protect them
completely, but better him than Yaxley), as do Portrait!DD's future
plans, which can't be carried out without Snape in LV's good graces).
Possibly, DD is placing too much weight on that particular concern,
but it's surely one important reason for his having Snape leak the
time and date.

At any rate, not even DD (and we're talking here about his portrait,
not the living DD, if that makes a difference) could anticipate that
LV would borrow a wand to use against Harry (as opposed to letting the
DEs capture and disarm him and then killing the wandless Harry
himself, eliminating the brothe wand effect). Nor could even
Portrait!DD (IMO) have anticipated that Harry's wand would go off of
its own accord, using a Dark spell that it had absorbed from LV's
wand, confirming his identity (already revealed by Harry himself
through his use of Expelliarmus, another unanticipated development)
and sending LV off on his quest for the Elder Wand.

I think that, while the undisguised Order members were in danger
(which all but Mundungus willingly took upon themselves), Harry
himself and the Polyjuiced Potters were not supposed to be in danger
because LV would want them alive.

But why, as you say, have Snape reveal the time and date at all (other
than to protect Snape's cover)? Would it have been sufficient to have
Snape indicate that the Order was, to use his word, "eschewing" any
means of transportation monitored by the MoM? (Snape has to give LV
*some* information, after all, in his double agent role.) That
information alone would have suggested an escape by broom, given that
LV would know of Harry's skills as a Quidditch player. But, as Mad-eye
says, LV would have had DEs scouting the area (just as he does later
at 12 GP) watching for the protective charm to break in case the Order
decided to break it early using a broom or similar means of
transportation. That being the case, revealing the date and time
wouldn't make all that much difference since the watching DEs could
have summoned Voldemort and the other DEs at a moment's notice.

In contrast, having Snape reveal the Poly-juiced Potters plan as well
as the date and time would have ruined everything. I think that
Portrait!DD counted on the element of surprise and on
divide-and-conquer. He may also have expected LV to hold off killing
Harry, or anyone who might be the real Harry, until Harry was
disarmed, which would eliminate the problem of the brother wands much
more effectively than borrowing Lucius Malfoy's "poor stick."

Carol, just tossing out ideas and not arguing that DD's plan was
brilliant or that the leaking of the date and time, which would
*appear* to be key information, was not exceedingly risky