Realistic Outcomes

[Mike]

No: HPFGUIDX 180778

> zgirnius:
> In an earlier post, you were attempting a contrast between a coup 
> among Muggles, and one among Wizards. (In suggesting Dolores's
> office workers should simply rise up against her). Have you
> rethought that supposed difference? 

Mike:
Can I say that I'm not sure what I think? LOL. I'm not sure what 
earlier post you're referring to but I admit to being of two or more 
minds on this issue. I originally thought it happened too fast. Then
my Fijiian friend corrected that impression with his real world 
experiences. Now, while rethinking the Trio's Ministry raid, I find 
myself disgusted with the employees attitude (or should that be lack 
of fortitude?). And yet I find yours and others explanations 
eminently reasonable. Like yours below:

> zgirnius:
> And I don't see why Wizards should be any different.
> 
> Both can, under the right circumstances, be brought to a point
> where they are willing to take that chance (as the Battle of
> Hogwarts illustrates in the Potterverse), but it is not, IMO, the
> default mode of either common Muggles, or common Wizards.

Mike:
What you've just said makes perfect sense. Yet, when I first read DH, 
I felt like the coup happened artificially fast and was too complete.

I know part of my consternation comes from believing that Voldemort 
didn't have *that* many supporters/DEs. I could've readily believed 
continued terrorist acts and maybe even an attack on the Ministry, 
that would lead to it's eventual downfall. So when it transpires 
that Voldemort has all his ducks lined up and all that's needed was 
to off Scrimgeour, I wasn't prepared mentally to accept that.

I'm just a floundering here. Maybe I should just shut up. :o)

> Pippin:
> The only reason Voldemort didn't call in reinforcements at Hogwarts
> is that he thought he'd won already. But there were loads of
> Dementors he could have summoned, loyal to him because he allows
> them to breed and creates their favored habitat, and that whole
> lake full of inferi too.

Mike:
Pippin, you keep bringing up the Dementors as if they're Voldemorts 
ace in the hole. I admit they were scary creatures to a 13-year-old 
Harry that didn't know what to do about them. But Harry can cast a 
Patronus that can vanquish hundreds of them now, and it'll hang 
around for a long time. (witness his MoM raid Prongs). Besides,
there are now a lot of people other than just Harry that can cast 
Patroni. I just don't see them as that formidible against wizards 
willing to fight them.

Inferi - I can't say. We only saw them in action in the cave. But 
Dumbledore took care of them with a simple fire charm. Heck, Hermione 
was using fire charms in first year. It's just my impression. YMMV.

> Pippin:
> Consider the number of dead in Moody's photo, and Lupin's
> statement that The Order had been outnumbered. Most wizards 
> survived the first war by _not_ fighting.

Mike:
Yeah, I remember Lupin's "outnumbered 20:1". And yet only 30 or so 
DEs showed up at the Graveyard. (Unless Harry really can't tell the 
difference between a circle of 30 and a circle of 300.) I suppose
*one* could give Lupin the benifit of the doubt and say he was 
including all the LV supporters versus only the Order. But I didn't 
expect you would be that *one*, Pippin. ;)


> Pippin:
> As for Reg Cattermole, how many like him are there? We know that
> being a Muggleborn was not the first step on the ladder to Ministry
> success. I don't suppose being married to a Muggleborn was much
> better.

Mike:
Another good point against my gut reaction. I'm afraid I've painted 
myself into a corner here. I'm going to have to wait for that paint 
to dry, test my footing, and decide if I want to return to this room. 
Until then, I bow to your wisdom, ladies.

> Pippin:
> Further to Umbridge, I don't think she was that great as a witch.
> <snip>
> McGonagall or Flitwick could have beaten her, Dumbledore *did*
> beat her.

Mike:
I always had the impression that most of the Hogwarts professors were 
more powerfully magical than almost anyone else. Still, I didn't 
think Delores was poor. Not near as good as Minerva or Filius, but I 
figured she could more than hold her own against your run-of-the-mill 
witch or wizard. Interesting that you had a different impression.

Mike