Realistic Outcomes

[pippin_999]

No: HPFGUIDX 180785

> 
> Mike:
> Pippin, you keep bringing up the Dementors as if they're Voldemorts 
> ace in the hole. I admit they were scary creatures to a 13-year-old 
> Harry that didn't know what to do about them. But Harry can cast a 
> Patronus that can vanquish hundreds of them now, and it'll hang 
> around for a long time. (witness his MoM raid Prongs). Besides,
> there are now a lot of people other than just Harry that can cast 
> Patroni. I just don't see them as that formidible against wizards 
> willing to fight them.
> 

Pippin:
They're not just scary to Harry. Most adult wizards are scared of them, 
and only a few know how to fight them or are powerful enough to
do so. Casting a patronus is very advanced magic, according to Lupin,
far beyond OWLs. Remember, it took quite a long time for Harry
to learn the spell, and even more before he could cast it reliably. Only
a few of the DA members were able to master it. They can't be 
everywhere at once. Just knowing they are going to face dementors
is enough to give most wizards the collywobbles. 

Mike:
> Inferi - I can't say. We only saw them in action in the cave. But 
> Dumbledore took care of them with a simple fire charm. Heck, Hermione 
> was using fire charms in first year. It's just my impression. YMMV.

Pippin:
Hermione's charm is bluebell flames -- no idea whether it works on
Inferi. Dumbledore's charm is more like the golden jet of fire that
Harry used during his escape, the one he had no idea how he'd cast.
We never see Hermione conjure a ring of flame and maintain it the
way Dumbledore did. I don't think that's simple magic. Plus there'd
be problems using a spell like that in close quarters or near 
something you don't want to set on fire.

> > Pippin:
> > Consider the number of dead in Moody's photo, and Lupin's
> > statement that The Order had been outnumbered. Most wizards 
> > survived the first war by _not_ fighting.
> 
> Mike:
> Yeah, I remember Lupin's "outnumbered 20:1". And yet only 30 or so 
> DEs showed up at the Graveyard. (Unless Harry really can't tell the 
> difference between a circle of 30 and a circle of 300.) I suppose
> *one* could give Lupin the benifit of the doubt and say he was 
> including all the LV supporters versus only the Order. But I didn't 
> expect you would be that *one*, Pippin. ;)

Pippin:
Hee! There's this idea that I hate Lupin. I don't. I never wanted him
to be evil so he could be punished. I was just amazed at the way his
supporters kept explaining away his (to me) obvious shortcomings.
Of course those shortcomings, to be real, had to have a purpose 
in the story, so I invented one. That it wasn't the one JKR had in
mind doesn't trouble me too much. After Vampire!Snape got shot down it
was clear I had no future as a mindreader. And I knew my theory
would have plenty of company at the bottom of The Bay.<g>

(So, Alla, I am perfectly okay with the way Lupin's story came out. <g>)

There are several references to Voldemort's Inner Circle. Those
would be the 30 or so DE's who showed up at the graveyard. But there 
were all those people in masks and robes who rioted at the QWC.
I doubt those were the same Death Eaters, after all it's only Lucius
who is blamed for Muggle-torturing when he could have been
rescuing his master. 

Most of the wizards who weren't marching ran away. Only a few
went to help the Ministry.


Pippin