GoF CH 27-29 Post DH look/ Snape and Harry redux

[littleleahstill]

No: HPFGUIDX 182212

--- In HPforGrownups at yahoogroups.com, "dumbledore11214" 
<dumbledore11214 at ...> wrote:
> Alla:
> 
> I did admit that? I thought I stressed specifically that quite a 
few of 
> order members survived the first war at least. I "thank" Snape for 
Lily 
> and James NOT surviving that.
> 
> And again, who says that Lily and James would not have been just 
as 
> lucky as Hagrid? Is the fact that they defied Voldemort three 
times 
> matters only as much as them fighting Voldemort? Does it not 
matter 
> that they **succesfully** defied Voldemort to increase their 
survival 
> chances?
> 
> And  there are Molly and Arthur of course.


Leah:  A lot of Order members *didn't* survive the first VW - the 
McKinnons, the Prewitts etc.  Yes, some Order members did survive, 
but that was because there was something to survive beyond.  Once 31 
October 1981 had occurred, there was an end to the first VW and 
people could say, "I made it through". You are talking about 
surviving beyond the war while removing the conditions that brought 
about its ending. Without the convoluted chain of events of Snape 
hearing the prophecy, taking it to Voldemort, Voldemort deciding 
Harry was the prophecy child, Snape asking for Lily's life, Snape 
going to Dumbledore, the Fidelius charm, James' and Sirius' 
decision, Peter's treachery, Voldemort's offer, Lily's sacrifice, 
the war would not have ended on 31/10/1981.  It would either have 
gone on for years, increasing the chance of Order members dying, or 
more likely, given the situation at the time, Voldemort would have 
won, and the likelihood of any Order members surviving, or at least 
surviving to lead happy normal lives would have been fairly remote 
to say the least. 

We don't know what Hagrid did during the first VW. We can assume 
that he was working at Hogwarts for much of the time, which must 
have been one of the safest places to be, given its many 
enchantments. 

JKR has said fairly recently, (and I can't find this at the moment) 
that 'defying Voldemort' did not necessarily mean standing up to him 
in a pitched fight - just joing the Order would have been 
sufficient, so there is no evidence that James and Lily were 
surviving prior to the prophecy due to their immense skills etc. 
Judging by the way they were running around at Godric's Hollow, 
without even having wands on them, they were not particularly gifted 
warriors, and might well have fallen victim to DEs if the war had 
continued for any time.  

I don't think there is any definite evidence to say that Molly and 
Arthur were Order members first time around- Molly certainly would 
have been looking after six small children. Molly's brothers were 
Order members and both died. In any event, to return to my original 
point, the fact that they were alive on 1 November 1981 does not 
mean that, had the war continued, that they, or Lily and James (and 
Harry) would have been alive on 1 November 1982.

Leah