ChapDisc: DH 18, The Life and Lies of Albus Dumbledore

[pippin_999]

No: HPFGUIDX 182748

> Alla:
> 
> So, if there is a possibility that Voldemort MAY find out,let's 
> INVITE him and BE SURE that he will find out? I do not get it.

Pippin:
First, I accept Zara's canon that Dumbledore didn't think Voldemort
would know about the wand. Sorry 'bout that. So, right, Dumbledore can
be pretty sure that Voldemort will try to attack. But then what?

Suppose Dumbledore thinks Voldemort is 99% certain to spot Harry
leaving Privet Drive in time to intercept him. That means there's only
one chance in a hundred that the Order  could extract Harry without
being attacked.  


That isn't worth very much. Why *not* trade it for something
useful, such as a substantial increase in Snape's credit with Voldemort? 

Of course, I don't know what Dumbledore actually estimated the odds to
be, but do you follow my reasoning now? 

Pippin