ChapDisc: DH 18, The Life and Lies of Albus Dumbledore

Thu May 1 02:00:27 UTC 2008

No: HPFGUIDX 182749

> Alla:
>
> So, if there is a possibility that Voldemort MAY find out,let's
> INVITE him and BE SURE that he will find out? I do not get it.

Pippin:
First, I accept Zara's canon that Dumbledore didn't think Voldemort
would know about the wand. Sorry 'bout that. So, right, Dumbledore can
be pretty sure that Voldemort will try to attack. But then what?

Suppose Dumbledore thinks Voldemort is 99% certain to spot Harry
leaving Privet Drive in time to intercept him. That means there's only
one chance in a hundred that the Order could extract Harry without
being attacked.  <SNIP>

Alla:

Do I follow the hypothetical scenario that you described? Totally. Do 
I see canon support for this scenario? No, I am afraid not really. 
How do you deduce  that Dumbledore is being sure that Voldemort is 
99% certain  that he can spot Harry leaving Privet Drive in time to 
intercept him? We are talking about Dumbledore being sure of this 
**without Snape giving Voldemort any information yet**, right?

I am not even talking about Dumbledore estimating any odds actually, 
I am just talking about Dumbledore just knowing that Order's plan is 
bound to fail. 

Alla:
> No, sorry, I can see no legit purpose for Dumbledore to give out
this
> secret, or to be precise for him to order Snape to give it out.

zgirnius:
An observation. I do not believe that Albus HAD the information to
give out. <SNIP>

Alla:

Sure, Snape does have this information, not Albus, Albus just 
suggests that Snape would give it to Voldemort. The correct date and 
time of Harry's departure that is.

Zgirnius:
If the Order had any sense, they would change any plans
made before Albus's murder, since they would have to presume Snape
had that information on the basis of Albus's oft stated complete,
ironclad, etc. trust of Snape. More likely, the Order did not even
HAVE a plan before Albus's murder, because they figured Albus had
one. Behind Albus and Snape's back, the Order made a new plan, and
laid the false trail for Yaxley/other Ministry infiltrators to find. 
<SNIP>

Alla:

Oh I don't know about that. Albus'portrait does not say after all – 
you find out correct date of Harry's departure and give it to 
Voldemort. It just says you will give it to Voldemort. I read it that 
Albus is already perfectly aware of what that date is. Moreover, 
when  Snape suggests that plan to Dung, he does not ASK him about the 
date, doesn't he? It tells me that he knows the date already and IMO 
from Albus and that means that this is an old plan, IMO of course.
"You will have to give Voldemort the correct date of Harry's 
departure from his aunt  and uncle's said Dumbledore. ************
"You will suggest to the Order of Phoenix," Snape murmured, that they 
use decoys. Polyjuice potion. Identical Potters. It is the only thing 
that might work. You will forget that I have suggested this. You will 
present it as your own idea. You understand?"

 Now SHOULD Order change all the plans after Albus' death? OF COURSE 
any person with drop of intelligence would have done what you 
described.  But since Order never was able to devise any strategy 
without looking at Albus first, I just have hard time believing it. I 
do wonder how they even accepted this plan, seven Potters I mean. IMO 
of course.

Zara:

<SNIP>
And if the answer is yes, I do not
see how Dumbledore could have acted differently. Snape's failure to
get the right date would have been suspicious, and Voldemort would
have known where to double check whether Snape knew the right date,
and whether he had attempted to get it.
<SNIP>

Alla:

 In order for me to adopt the assumption that the answer is yes, I 
would love to see Voldemort actually ASKING Snape to get the date, 
you know?

Sure, Dumbledore THINKS it may raise suspicions if Snape does not 
know the date. Dumbledore THOUGHT many incorrect things, so I am 
afraid I cannot take it as a given. As far as I am concerned, 
Voldemort may not even bothered with asking anybody to find out a 
date and just either kept watch or chose much more convenient 
location to take another shot Harry.

And that brings ups to part of Pippin's post I cut:

Zara:
So instead Dumbledore ordered Snape to meet Voldemort's reasonable
and fact-based expectations, and tried also to prevent the giving of
the date from turning into a disaster, by having Snape suggest the
Polyjuice trick to the Order.

Alla:

That's a huge jump I am asked to make.  I just do not see what should 
lead me to believe that date would have known had the Snape not given 
it.

Could it have been known? Sure, but I do not even think that the odds 
that it would have known been that high. But after all, I never 
thought that Voldemort had a chance to learn prophecy had Snape not 
opened his mouth.

And here is the whole thing with Dumbledore telling Snape to give the 
date to increase his standing or his credibility in Voldemort's eyes 
falls right apart in front of me. I do not see the support for Snape 
not delivering the date AND falling out of Voldemort's good graces.

Because you see, I will  of course never like or respect Dumbledore 
so casually putting his comrades in the line of fire **knowing that 
it does not have to be so**, BUT what I am trying to do is at least  
see SOME logic, some **dire necessity** that it could not have been 
avoided at all, or something like that.

For example, every time I am thinking of Dumbledore leaving Harry 
with Dursleys, I hope he will burn forever in whatever imaginary hell 
exists in Potterverse, BUT I understand the *blood protection* thing. 
I mean, I do not think that it was enough reason, I do not believe it 
was shown in details, I still think he should have checked on Harry, 
BUT I can see good faith reason for Dumbledore who is not a monster 
to do so. I  mean, relatively good faith reason, since it is also 
tied up with what I believe Dumbledore the most royally screwing 
Sirius over, but at least some sort of good faith.

Another example is the Tower of course. I find Dumbledore ordering 
Snape to kill him and not caring about Snape's soul, being well, 
screwy, to put it mildly. BUT sure, there is some sort of logic that 
Snape who killed leader of Light, well will be in good graces of 
Voldemort.

Here the reason  for betraying the order being Snape getting in 
Voldemort's better graces or Voldemort not being suspicious of him, 
well I am afraid does not wash with me unless Dumbledore either 
completely crazy or just plain evil. And I know JKR did not mean for 
him to be completely evil ( boy do I have to remind myself of it 
often), so I have to go with crazy old paranoic.

I find it crazy because as I described above I do not see how 
Voldemort would have just let Snape out of his good graces when he 
would not know the date  and I mean, if we go with this logic – that 
everything goes in order to make Snape even more informed in 
Voldemort's eyes, what exactly is off-limits, eh?

Please, let's make Snape tell Voldemort the safe houses of the Order, 
oh oh please let him inform Voldemort that there is a very good way 
to make Harry come to him, let's catch Ginny Weasley and Harry is 
almost bound to come flying to save her, etc. Is there ANY 
information which is off-limits for passing to Voldemort if it helps 
increasing Snape's informative standing?

Because if it is not, it smells evil to me.

JMO,

Alla