CHAPDISC: DH32, The Elder Wand

[pippin_999]

No: HPFGUIDX 184786

 
> Montavilla47:
> I'm not sure what you mean by Dumbledore's efforts to reform the
> Ministry.  I didn't see him ever make any effort in that regard.  

Pippin:
He was head of the Wizengamot, an advocate for Muggle rights, tried to
prevent miscarriages of justice, and discouraged the use of dementors.
A Ministry of Magic  dedicated to democratic process rather than one
man rule, concerned about justice rather than image, protective of
Muggles and not dependent on dementors could only have been more
resistant to Voldemort's influence.

Montavilla: 
> Perhaps Dumbledore saw the overtures to the giants and werewolves
> as long shots, but I certainly didn't get that impression in GoF. 

Pippin:
The object in  GoF was to get the *Ministry* to make overtures to the
Giants. That would have been vastly different to Hagrid
and Maxime on their own. At the very least, Hagrid and Maxime could
have arrived much sooner than the DE's if they'd been allowed to use
magic to travel and didn't need to detour to disguise their purpose.

Whether the Giants are stupid and ungovernable when they have
sufficient resources for their needs and aren't engaged in a brutal
civil war, is hard to say. If Grawp is a fair example, they're not. He
was able to acquire a foreign language and civilized manners as an
adult, despite what seems to have been a feral upbringing -- that
shows intelligence and an ability to adapt, IMO. 

 
Montavilla: 
> Okay.  How exactly would one of those long shots have prevented
> Voldemort's takeover?  How would they have made a darn bit of 
> difference?  The giants were stupid and unable to organize into 
> any effective political or fighting force.   The only werewolf we
ever saw (apart from Lupin and the guy he visited in St. Mungo's) was
> Fenrir Greyback.  It's pretty obvious he'd stick with Voldemort
> no matter what the other werewolves did, and we don't see any
> other werewolves fighting for either side.
> 
> Nor, if the werewolves had come over to the Ministry (we don't 
> actually know if they did or not), could they have been particularly
> effective--unless they were sent to eat Death Eaters or something.

Pippin:
At the end of GoF, Voldemort's forces consisted of thirty or so
press-ganged wizards whose allegiance Voldemort himself considered to
be extremely shaky, and who were just as frightened of Giants  as
other wizards are. If the Ministry had taken the news of Voldemort's
return seriously, if it had sought evidence against those whom Harry
identified as DE's, if it had dismissed the dementors and let Azkaban
be guarded by loyal Giants instead, who knows what would have happened?

If wizards had actually known anything about werewolves, they might
have realized there was not much reason to fear  Fenrir more than
Voldemort's other thugs, when it wasn't full moon. In any case Fenrir
could only be in one place at a time. But the fear of werewolves could
be everywhere. 

> 
> Montavilla47:
> When did Lupin give up?  I saw him complaining about his assignment,
> but I never saw him give it up.

Pippin:
"I cannot pretend that my particular brand of reasoned argument is
making much headway against Greyback's insistence that we werewolves
deserve blood, that we ought to revenge ourselves on normal people."
-HBP 16

That's  a prediction of failure, and Lupin's presence at the Weasleys
and later at Hogwarts confirms that he's come in from the cold. 

Pippin:
> > Plotwise, of course, JKR needed a way to keep Hagrid and Lupin
> > offstage for long periods but still available for their parts in
the last book. 
> 
> Montavilla47:
> I have to disagree with even this statement.  The only time JKR
> *needed* Hagrid offstage was when Harry arrived late at Hogwarts.
> (If Hagrid hadn't been visiting his brother, he could just as easily
 have been busy escorting the firsties across the lake at that moment.
And, by the way, I wonder who got stuck with that job in HBP?)

Pippin:
JKR needed Hagrid offstage in OOP so that Harry could feel abandoned
at Hogwarts, and so that Umbridge could have a free rein. I don't
suppose Hagrid would have taken kindly to finding out that Harry was
getting words carved on his hand, whatever Dumbledore and McGonagall
said. 

In HBP, I  assume that Hagrid escorted the firsties, turned them over
to McGonagall at the door as usual, then went to see his brother
during the Sorting. He thus arrived a few minutes late for the feast,
which didn't start until the Sorting was finished.


Montavilla:
> The obsession with Lupin's activities was more likely fueled by
> the idea (planted by that ending scene in GoF) that the werewolves
> were ZOMG IMPORTANT!  

Pippin:

Huh? 

IIRC, there wasn't anything about overtures to the werewolves in GoF.
Sirius was told to hole up with Lupin. Obviously Lupin was not engaged
in a secret mission to the werewolves at that time. There was a
throwaway line in OOP about Lupin's mysterious missions, but we didn't
find out what he was up to until HBP, when he filled us in, but also
let us know he wasn't getting anywhere. 

JKR is of course not responsible for wild speculation about Lupin's
role  <g>.


Pippin