'chained these 12 years..'

[Talisman]

--- In the_old_crowd at yahoogroups.com, "pippin_999" <foxmoth at ...> 
wrote:
>> > Talisman:
> > I think I'm remembering that the Order is an ultra-secret 
> > organization.  The Ministry doesn't know it exists, and 
> >the Order is keeping it that way.
> > 
> Pippin:
> Even Sluggy knows it exists and refers to it by name. Matter of
> fact, it was Fudge who first told us about Spymaster!
> Dumbledore. Not only that, he tried to recruit Percy to infiltrate.

Talisman:
There is no justification for saying *even* Sluggy.  Indeed, Sluggy 
is the *only* non-insider to use the Order name.

Far from being an index of penetration, Sluggy is a character with 
some explaining to do.

In mid-July of Year 6, ol' Sluggy tells Harry that he has been 
running and hiding for a year.  Basically, he went to ground at the 
first whiff of Voldemort's return, in the summer of Year 5 (the end 
of GoF). 

Unlike the Ministry, Sluggy didn't question Voldemort's reappearance. 
Moreover, though many people fear Voldemort's return, Sluggy 
demonstrates a personal, immediate expectation of Voldemort's 
attentions.

We need hardly wonder why.  From Voldemort's perspective, Sluggy is 
the only person--or more conservatively--the only non-DE, who knows 
Voldemort has been slapping out Hxes.

If Sluggy isn't actively on LV's side, LV has good reason to insure 
the old duffer's silence.  Shoot, if I were the DL, I'd waste the 
nuisance even if he took the DE oath. Loose lips, etc.

So, what do you suppose Sluggo did last time around?

Surely LV would have had the same *interest* in his old professor, 
pre-GH.

Is Slughorn lying? Did he join the DEs in the past? Or was he under 
Order protection? Either answer would give him the knowledge he 
evinces.

No, we're not done with Slughorn yet. He's got a nice chunk of 
crystalized Karma coming.  

DD didn't need the un-tampered memory, but that doesn't change the 
fact that Slughorn preferred gilding his own foolish lily to giving 
DD information the he possessed relevant to LV's Hx program. 

Sluggy will be diced and fried in DH, but not before we learn more 
about our pudgy potions pal.
   
As for Fudge. Ha. 

Fudge is a parnoid idiot who thinks DD wants his job. He prefers to 
think DD is telling tales of LV's return, just to make trouble for 
him (OoP Chpt. 4, p 71) and harbours shadowy fears that DD may be 
assembling a mutinous band to effect a coup d'etat. 

Late in the year, when DD claims the DA as his personal organization, 
Fudge is all to happy to identify the student group as DD's agents of 
revolution.

"`Then you *have* been plotting against me!' he yelled"(Chpt.27, p. 
618).

Fudge doesn't know the Order from a Gobstones Club. 

  
> Pippin:
> You don't think it's an *accident* that Moody was forced into
> retirement, Tonks got posted to Hogsmeade and Shacklebolt
> to the Muggle PM's office? They aren't going to be spying on
> the Ministry from there, you know. 
>
Talisman:
Moody had already retired of his own volition, prior to Year 4; his 
retirement was totally unrelated to events occurring in Year 5.

As for the others:

"I'm stationed in Hogsmeade now, to give the school extra 
protection," said Tonks. 
"Is it just you who's stationed up here, or — ?" 
"No, Proudfoot, Savage, and Dawlish are here too." 
(OoP Chpt.8, p. 158)
 
Tonks, and three other Aurors, including Dawlish who took fire for 
Fudge the year prior, are guarding the children of Hogwarts. This 
includes children from every level of wizarding society and can 
hardly be called a politically unimportant mission.

Shacklebolt is guarding the Muggle Prime Minister. Not only is the 
Minister himself in danger, but Voldemort's forces are causing havoc 
among the Muggles. Sensitive matters involving the International Code 
of Wizarding Secrecy are arising in record numbers.

The International Code of Wizarding Secrecy is a primary raison 
d'etre for the existence of the Ministry of Magic.
 
The Code, itself, was established for the benefit of Muggles, and it 
is the Ministry's duty to insure that it is upheld (See e.g. FBWTFT 
xvi).

There is even a special office of Misinformation, which is deployed 
to *liaise directly with the Muggle prime minister* in the case of 
especially serious breaches of the Code: *the very worst magical-
Muggle collisions* (FBWTFT xx).

Similarly, being deployed in these precarious times, as special 
security for the Muggle prime minister, is hardly a punishment job.  
It is a senstive position of trust and honor.

Neither Tonks's nor Shackelbolt's job can be confused with a junket 
to the  Centaur Office (FBWTFT xiii).  The assertion simply does not 
obtain.

Additionally, in the hypothetical you assert, i.e. that Tonks and 
Shacklebolt revealed their Order realtionship with Sirius, the 
problem would not have been that they were *spying on the Ministry,* 
but that they were misinforming it, subverting its interests, and 
assisting outlawed individuals. 

They could certainly continue to do such things in their new, high-
responsibility positions. 
 
> Talisman:
> > "By the way Minister, we knew where Sirius was all year, but we 
> > didn't tell you because our first loyalty is to DD." 
> 
> Pippin:
> "By the way Minister, we knew where Sirius was all year, but
> we weren't able to tell you. You're familiar with the secret
> keeper spell, we believe?"
>

Talisman:
The matter of the Fidelius is not germane. While it would have 
prevented disclosure of Sirius's specific location, it would not have 
prevented disclosure of the fact that they knew where he was.

Shacklebolt, Tonks, and the others (including the soon to be promoted 
Arthur Weasley), could easily have told Fudge that DD was concealing 
Sirius, allowing Fudge to deal with it as he may.  

Instead, they both covered for Sirius and actively misdirected law 
enforcement to far flung points on the globe.

There is no way they could later explain that he was actually with 
them, and continue to be employed by the Ministry.

The imposition of a Fidelius Charm doesn't change the Aurors patent 
disloyalty to Fudge or their work to subvert the efforts of the 
Ministry at every instance, according to DD's preferences.

While *I* am perfectly happy with their behavior, confessing it to 
the Ministry could result in nothing less than dismissal.    

 
> > > Pippin:
> > > The evidence is that Ginny was attacked and taken into the 
>chamber while Hagrid was safely in Azkaban.
> > 
> > Talisman:
> > All the Ministry really had, as evidence of anything, was a 
>>daubed note and Ginny temporarily AWOL from her dorm. There wasn't 
>>even a petrified body, this time.
> > 
> > That's no more evidence than there would be if some kids cooked 
up a stunt to get their pal Hagrid off the hook.
> 
> Pippin:
> And Ginny just evaporated, did she?


Talisman:
Surely you can't be suggesting that there are only two possible 
explanations for an AWOL student: Heir of Slytherin Abduction or 
Evaporation.  This line of inquiry appears to be swirling around the 
great porcelain bowl...

 
> Talisman:
> > Hagrid has been presumed guilty.  You'd think that overcoming > 
>this presumption would require some sort of explanation.  
> 
> Pippin:
> No, he was placed in Azkaban merely as a precaution. With the
> wind blowing against Lucius Malfoy, Fudge had no reason not to
> interfere with Dumbledore's order, (presumably as Head of the
> Wizengamot) to let Hagrid go.

Talisman:
Hagrid was placed in Azkaban because events at Hogwarts had the 
Wizarding World in hysterics and Fudge felt pressured to provide a 
scapegoat--the Ministry needed to be seen doing *something.*

There was no *wind blowing against Malfoy.*  To what do you refer? 
There was no accusation of Malfoy, public or private, outside the 
words exchanged between Harry, Lucius, and DD, in DD's office. Fudge 
and Malfoy remained thick pals throughout CoS, right up until 
Malfoy's arrest in OoP.

Fudge had every reason to interfere with DD's *order*--your word not 
Rowling's. Fudge had no basis for believing the crisis was over.  

Indeed there is no evidence DD explained anything to Fudge, at all.

If the person Fudge arrested is freed, and any more attacks take 
place, Fudge will reap the political fallout.

Nonetheless, I'll quite agree that when DD wants someone out of 
Azkaban, he can manage it. That's what I've been arguing, all along. 

Pippin:
> Remember, most people would rather believe the chamber 
> does not exist, so nobody is going to be demanding a lot
> of explanations provided the attacks stop.

Talisman:
There is no canon to support the idea that people were denying the 
existence of the Chamber.  Quite the contrary. Binns is the 
only...er...entity who scoffs.

There is no basis for asserting that families didn't need both 
explanations and assurances regarding their children's safety.

Certainly those whose loved ones had been petrified would want 
answers and accountability.

Moreover, framing Hagrid solved any need to explore the actual events 
of the Chamber.

Instead, the WW is left without any explanation, at all.
 

> <huge snip>
> > > 
> > > Pippin:
> > > It was his fault for giving Lupin a third chance. 
> > 
> > Talisman:
> > I can count considerably more than 3 chances--none of which
> > involved DD standing over him. 
> > Guess ESE!Lupin is just a bit slow...
> > ...but he's dang lucky, because he'll be able to stay under deep 
> > cover...all the way through the last book. 
> > Even the Author won`t know what he's been up to.  ; )
> 
> Pippin:
> Oh, no. He confesses, a full villain tells all speech,  or ESE!
>Lupin sinks 
> gently to the bottom of the bay. I won't bore you with any such
> behind the scenes nonsense. If JKR has somehow managed to
> inspire in me the plot of a full blown spy novel which she didn't
> write, I shall be far too busy filing off the serial numbers and
> writing it myself. :)
>
 Talisman:
Why delay? 
Whether ESE or no, it's fair game.
 

> > Talisman:
> > 
> > Rowling has called Sirius the most dangerous of the Marauders--
> >more dangerous than Wormtail.
> > 
> > Certainly he was very reckless, often thoughtless, somewhat 
> > hypocritical, and prone to over-rating his own cleverness.  
> 
> Pippin:
> But those are the characteristics JKR forgives in youth, at least,
> her hero Harry exhibits all of them. Sirius's only tragedy is that
> he never got a chance to grow out of them.

Talisman:
Again, it's Rowling who calls Sirius *most dangerous.*  And, as I've 
said, I expect to learn more unflattering factoids about Messr. 
Black. 

Hubris, which Sirus had in spades, has always been plenty to fuel a 
tragedy.

As for Harry, you haven't heard me warbling about his wonderous 
purity or superlative personal attributes. He's got some painful life 
lessons--coming up fast.